GLOBE Carbon Cycle:  Modeling Forest Ecosystems

GLOBE Carbon Cycle: Modeling Forest Ecosystems PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Outline. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle ProjectModelingBiomass Accumulation ModelModeling with iSee SystemsActivity: Run the modelLearn about one activity that can be done using this modelActivity: Comparing Collected Data with Model Results. Carbon Cycle Project Goals. Students will

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GLOBE Carbon Cycle: Modeling Forest Ecosystems

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1. GLOBE Carbon Cycle: Modeling Forest Ecosystems Sarah Silverberg, Rita Freuder University of New Hampshire Introductions - project is housed at UNH - working in collaboration with the Czech Republic, both Charles University and their major Education/Outreach Organization TEREZA - our project is also part of GLOBE Introductions - project is housed at UNH - working in collaboration with the Czech Republic, both Charles University and their major Education/Outreach Organization TEREZA - our project is also part of GLOBE

2. Outline

3. Carbon Cycle Project Goals Students will… Learn why carbon is an important element in ecosystems, and how it cycles through ecosystems. Gain skills in current carbon cycle research techniques. Increase their ability to critically think about problems. Understand the nature of science research. GLOBE Program - GLOBE is an international K-12 science education program that unites students, teachers and scientists in the study of the Earth - GLOBE has 3 program goals: o Improve science education o Increase scientific understanding of the Earth as a system o Enhance the environmental awareness of individuals worldwide GLOBE Program - GLOBE is an international K-12 science education program that unites students, teachers and scientists in the study of the Earth - GLOBE has 3 program goals: o Improve science education o Increase scientific understanding of the Earth as a system o Enhance the environmental awareness of individuals worldwide

4. Proposed Activities to Meet Goals 4 Major Categories: Modeling Classroom Experiments Field Measurements Remote Sensing Toolkit Proposed Activities - to meet these goals we have set out 4 categories of activities that together embody the steps that a scientist would go through if they were studying the carbon cycle - The major categories are: modeling, field measurements, a remote sensing toolkit for looking at and analyzing images, and an classroom experiments - when the project is fully developed these activities will be linked in a variety of ways Proposed Activities - to meet these goals we have set out 4 categories of activities that together embody the steps that a scientist would go through if they were studying the carbon cycle - The major categories are: modeling, field measurements, a remote sensing toolkit for looking at and analyzing images, and an classroom experiments - when the project is fully developed these activities will be linked in a variety of ways

5. Modeling Introduces students to the use of models in science Learn how carbon is stored and transferred at the ecosystem and global level Understand ways that carbon can change with a change in environmental conditions Connection to field collected data

7. What is a Model? - Before we can discuss any more about the carbon model specifically, in my experience it is better to start at the beginning, especially because this is likely where all of your students will start - What do you think of when you hear model? What do you think your students will think of? - There are many definitions of a model, but most of these do not accurately reflect the type of models we use to study science What is a Model? - Before we can discuss any more about the carbon model specifically, in my experience it is better to start at the beginning, especially because this is likely where all of your students will start - What do you think of when you hear model? What do you think your students will think of? - There are many definitions of a model, but most of these do not accurately reflect the type of models we use to study science

10. Models don’t have to be complex to be useful -it is most important to remember that although the subject matter that you are dealing with may be complex, the model you create to describe that subject can be simple -Everyone can MODEL!!! oOften all you need to know are the basic relationships between parameters and some simple math, addition, subtraction, multiplication, division -Here we are looking at a box and arrow model oThe box is the stock, reservoir or pool oAnd the arrows are the fluxes, the inflow to the pool and the outflow from -Residence time is the amount of time that material remains in a pool -And the turnover rate is the fraction of material in a pool that enters or leaves in a given time -these two things become particularly important when you look at more complex cycles Models don’t have to be complex to be useful -it is most important to remember that although the subject matter that you are dealing with may be complex, the model you create to describe that subject can be simple -Everyone can MODEL!!! oOften all you need to know are the basic relationships between parameters and some simple math, addition, subtraction, multiplication, division -Here we are looking at a box and arrow model oThe box is the stock, reservoir or pool oAnd the arrows are the fluxes, the inflow to the pool and the outflow from -Residence time is the amount of time that material remains in a pool -And the turnover rate is the fraction of material in a pool that enters or leaves in a given time -these two things become particularly important when you look at more complex cycles

11. 1 Box Forest Biomass Model -Before students will be able to understand modeling something complex such as the global carbon cycle they will need to understand how modeling works when there is only 1 pool involved. -This 1 box model is focused on the change of forest biomass over time, the inputs and outputs are based on average measured values for a forest in Northern New Hampshire -Here the pool is forest biomass -The input is wood growth also called wood production oWood production is a function of the concentration of nitrogen in leaves oFoliar nitrogen varies generally by tree type here open circles are coniferous trees and closed circles are deciduous trees, by specific tree species, and also by other environmental factors (temperature, precipitation) oSo although a similar relationship exists between wood production and canopy N concentration in most ecosystem, the slope of the line will be different oIn this case a typical foliar N value is approximately 2%, which means we have a wood production rate of 400 g/m2/yr -The output is wood loss due to tree mortality or production of woody litter, which is the amount of branches that come down each year because of old age, disease and wind-throw orather than being a constant flux like wood growth, wood loss is a proportional flux othis means the amount of wood loss is dependent on the total amount of wood in the forest biomass pool ofor New Hampshire wood loss is estimated to be 2% per year 1 Box Forest Biomass Model -Before students will be able to understand modeling something complex such as the global carbon cycle they will need to understand how modeling works when there is only 1 pool involved. -This 1 box model is focused on the change of forest biomass over time, the inputs and outputs are based on average measured values for a forest in Northern New Hampshire -Here the pool is forest biomass -The input is wood growth also called wood production oWood production is a function of the concentration of nitrogen in leaves oFoliar nitrogen varies generally by tree type here open circles are coniferous trees and closed circles are deciduous trees, by specific tree species, and also by other environmental factors (temperature, precipitation) oSo although a similar relationship exists between wood production and canopy N concentration in most ecosystem, the slope of the line will be different oIn this case a typical foliar N value is approximately 2%, which means we have a wood production rate of 400 g/m2/yr -The output is wood loss due to tree mortality or production of woody litter, which is the amount of branches that come down each year because of old age, disease and wind-throw orather than being a constant flux like wood growth, wood loss is a proportional flux othis means the amount of wood loss is dependent on the total amount of wood in the forest biomass pool ofor New Hampshire wood loss is estimated to be 2% per year

12. 1 box forest biomass-graph -so what does this model generate? -This is a biomass accumulation curve oIt shows the change in biomass over time oIn this case at the end of 400 years the model has reached a steady state, where biomass is no longer increasing oFinal biomass is 20000 g/m2, this means that the carbon storage for this forest at steady state is approximately 10000 gC/m2 And from this result you can ask a variety of questions to further student understanding of biomass, forest growth and carbon storage. But what is going on if the same forest were only 50 years old? ?How much carbon is it storing? ?Is it source or sink for atmospheric C? oHow would carbon storage change if this forest were cut for firewood or turned into a ball field? -These are the kinds of questions we hope students will answer when using the models 1 box forest biomass-graph -so what does this model generate? -This is a biomass accumulation curve oIt shows the change in biomass over time oIn this case at the end of 400 years the model has reached a steady state, where biomass is no longer increasing oFinal biomass is 20000 g/m2, this means that the carbon storage for this forest at steady state is approximately 10000 gC/m2 And from this result you can ask a variety of questions to further student understanding of biomass, forest growth and carbon storage. But what is going on if the same forest were only 50 years old? ?How much carbon is it storing? ?Is it source or sink for atmospheric C? oHow would carbon storage change if this forest were cut for firewood or turned into a ball field? -These are the kinds of questions we hope students will answer when using the models

13. Here is the interface of our model that you will see when it is first opened. The green arrow allows you to view a story about the science in the model as it builds the model one box and one arrow at a time. The red arrow takes you to the run page where you can change your input values and watch the results of running the model. Also notice the tabs down the side: map, model, equationHere is the interface of our model that you will see when it is first opened. The green arrow allows you to view a story about the science in the model as it builds the model one box and one arrow at a time. The red arrow takes you to the run page where you can change your input values and watch the results of running the model. Also notice the tabs down the side: map, model, equation

14. The equation tab shows the detailed equations that run the model. The map and model pages show how all the fluxes and pools are connected.The equation tab shows the detailed equations that run the model. The map and model pages show how all the fluxes and pools are connected.

15. The model we are using is built is a program called STELLA which is produced by isee systems. The isee systems company also produces a free model player which is downloadable from their website. You have this player on the cd we handed out, but we will also go through the process of registering for the player so that you will receive any important software updates. Go now to iseesystems.com Scroll to the bottom of the page and click on the P. You will arrive at the registration page.The model we are using is built is a program called STELLA which is produced by isee systems. The isee systems company also produces a free model player which is downloadable from their website. You have this player on the cd we handed out, but we will also go through the process of registering for the player so that you will receive any important software updates. Go now to iseesystems.com Scroll to the bottom of the page and click on the P. You will arrive at the registration page.

16. If you have not registered before use the lower spaces to fill in your name and such, your password will be assigned to you and sent to your email for future reference. Now you are ready to go.If you have not registered before use the lower spaces to fill in your name and such, your password will be assigned to you and sent to your email for future reference. Now you are ready to go.

17. Since most of you have never used the isee player before we created a tutorial in ppt format that you can view to help you better understand the technical aspects of the program. The file is in your modeling folder on your cd.Since most of you have never used the isee player before we created a tutorial in ppt format that you can view to help you better understand the technical aspects of the program. The file is in your modeling folder on your cd.

18. Now you will have the opportunity to look at the model, read the story and try running the model under a variety of inputs. To get started use the directions here. After some exploration time we will reconvene and look at a specific activity using the model.Now you will have the opportunity to look at the model, read the story and try running the model under a variety of inputs. To get started use the directions here. After some exploration time we will reconvene and look at a specific activity using the model.

20. The data we are using for this activity were collected as part of the Forest Inventory and Analysis program which as been a major effort of the USDA Forest Service since 1930. Mission: to make and keep a current comprehensive inventory and analysis of the present and prospective conditions of and requirements for renewable resources in the forest and rangelands of the US. This slide shows you how to access the excel file, but we have also included it on your cd.The data we are using for this activity were collected as part of the Forest Inventory and Analysis program which as been a major effort of the USDA Forest Service since 1930. Mission: to make and keep a current comprehensive inventory and analysis of the present and prospective conditions of and requirements for renewable resources in the forest and rangelands of the US. This slide shows you how to access the excel file, but we have also included it on your cd.

21. This exercise will soon be part of the Earth Exploration Toolbook. EET is a series of independent chapters, each addressing a particular tool and dataset. Each chapter highlights a particular classroom-ready example demonstrating how to use the tool to analyze and explore the data. Focused on Earth Science topics Current chapters are most appropriate for grades 6-16. This exercise will soon be part of the Earth Exploration Toolbook. EET is a series of independent chapters, each addressing a particular tool and dataset. Each chapter highlights a particular classroom-ready example demonstrating how to use the tool to analyze and explore the data. Focused on Earth Science topics Current chapters are most appropriate for grades 6-16.

22. After completion of this activity students will be able to… Describe how forest biomass generally changes over time Understand how forest biomass relates to carbon storage Run the STELLA Biomass Accumulation Model using the iSee Player Assess similarities and differences between field measured data and model outcomes

24. STEP 1: The FIA Carbon Data File View: FIATablesForStateTotals.xls Notice the tabs at the bottom Data is broken down by region (7 total) After each region there is a separate tab for each state in the region Use the scrolling arrows to view all tabs Select the New Hampshire (NH) tab for this exercise

25. We are looking at the last year for which data is available 1997. Notice that tree species are grouped into common forest types. One Forest type grouping exists for all eastern and central regions and a second exists for rocky mountain and pacific regions. For our calculations of total aboveground carbon stock in trees for NH we need to use three data tables. The area of forested land by forest type, the total amount of carbon stored by each forest type, and the fraction carbon stored in trees compared to the total.We are looking at the last year for which data is available 1997. Notice that tree species are grouped into common forest types. One Forest type grouping exists for all eastern and central regions and a second exists for rocky mountain and pacific regions. For our calculations of total aboveground carbon stock in trees for NH we need to use three data tables. The area of forested land by forest type, the total amount of carbon stored by each forest type, and the fraction carbon stored in trees compared to the total.

26. STEP 3: Using the Carbon Data View: CarbonStockScenario_template.xls Notice the tabs at the bottom Templates for Region 1: East and Central US Region 2: Rocky Mountains and Pacific A tab for NH is already filled in with FIA Carbon Data Now view your carbon stock scenario template. You will see templates for the two forest type groupings I just described as well as a tab specific to NH. Select the NH tab. Here you will notice that the template has been filled in using data from tables 2,3,4. Tables 2 and 3 are data copied directly and table 4 uses the calculation function to find the biomass fraction.Now view your carbon stock scenario template. You will see templates for the two forest type groupings I just described as well as a tab specific to NH. Select the NH tab. Here you will notice that the template has been filled in using data from tables 2,3,4. Tables 2 and 3 are data copied directly and table 4 uses the calculation function to find the biomass fraction.

27. Now we want to find the total carbon storage in aboveground biomass, so we go through two more calculations. First we multiply the total C stock by the fraction of biomass. Then we multiply by the percent of biomass that is found aboveground. We are concerned with only aboveground biomass here, because that is what our model is designed to calculate. Studies have shown that about 87% of biomass is found aboveground.Now we want to find the total carbon storage in aboveground biomass, so we go through two more calculations. First we multiply the total C stock by the fraction of biomass. Then we multiply by the percent of biomass that is found aboveground. We are concerned with only aboveground biomass here, because that is what our model is designed to calculate. Studies have shown that about 87% of biomass is found aboveground.

28. Foliar nitrogen content for each forest type was determined by averaging the foliar N for each tree species in the group. More information about the foliar N values that were used can be found in the foliar N tabs of this file.Foliar nitrogen content for each forest type was determined by averaging the foliar N for each tree species in the group. More information about the foliar N values that were used can be found in the foliar N tabs of this file.

29. Now we will begin running the model for each of the forest types. You will be using the foliar N value as the only input, leaving wood turnover at 2% and harvest at zero. To make the exercise more meaning full have students think about the foliar N value, and make a prediction about which forest type will have the greatest biomass accumulation. You may also want to discuss in more detail why you would expect certain forest types to have the given foliar N value.Now we will begin running the model for each of the forest types. You will be using the foliar N value as the only input, leaving wood turnover at 2% and harvest at zero. To make the exercise more meaning full have students think about the foliar N value, and make a prediction about which forest type will have the greatest biomass accumulation. You may also want to discuss in more detail why you would expect certain forest types to have the given foliar N value.

30. Once you run the model for a given foliar N, be sure to record the wood carbon value for each year in your template table. To make the exercise move along, you may have students split into groups and only do a few model runs each.Once you run the model for a given foliar N, be sure to record the wood carbon value for each year in your template table. To make the exercise move along, you may have students split into groups and only do a few model runs each.

31. You will notice that once you type in the wood carbon values in g C/m2 the boxes to the right are automatically filled in. The equations in these boxes convert g C/m2 to MMTC per all the acres of NH forest in a given forest type.You will notice that once you type in the wood carbon values in g C/m2 the boxes to the right are automatically filled in. The equations in these boxes convert g C/m2 to MMTC per all the acres of NH forest in a given forest type.

33. It is important to discuss with students what the data mean. Keep in mind that measured and modeled data will not always match: MODEL: perhaps the averaged foliar N used in the model is lower or higher than reality, perhaps the estimated wood turnover of 2% is incorrect DATA: perhaps there were environmental conditions that affected growth and were not accounted for in the model It is important to discuss with students what the data mean. Keep in mind that measured and modeled data will not always match: MODEL: perhaps the averaged foliar N used in the model is lower or higher than reality, perhaps the estimated wood turnover of 2% is incorrect DATA: perhaps there were environmental conditions that affected growth and were not accounted for in the model

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