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Scenario building

Scenario building. Creating and considering stories about equally plausible futures. Scenarios. Narratives (stories) that express what your information institution might look like in the future Used in planning for the future Create various narratives to express various possibilities

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Scenario building

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  1. Scenario building Creating and considering stories about equally plausible futures

  2. Scenarios • Narratives (stories) that express what your information institution might look like in the future • Used in planning for the future • Create various narratives to express various possibilities • Narratives should include you as an actor—what will your role be

  3. Scenario building considerations • What are the givens? • Hawai‘i will continue to have children that need an education • Old, deteriorating buildings will continue to need work • What are the uncertainties? • Change to smaller school boards? • Larger or smaller student population? • “Education governor” who budgets adequate funds for education? A legislature that releases those funds?

  4. The Steps • Divide into groups • Discuss the environmental forces at work that will influence the future • Discuss possible futures • Create 2 or 3 scenarios • Share at least one of your stories with the rest of the class

  5. Step One: Organizing Divide into groups according to information institution type: • Public library • Academic library • School library • Archive • Special (including knowledge management officer for corporation)

  6. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Social forces • Changing demographics • Will population of Hawai`i continue to grow? • What about the school-age population? • Ethnic and linguistic diversity

  7. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Technology • Information retrieval software • Virtual reference • Provide more resources electronically • e-Books

  8. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Economics • Downward or upward economy (U.S. and local) • What would that mean in terms of funding for your institution? • If government funding drops are there other resources available?

  9. Step Two: Discuss forces at work - Politics • Laws relating to libraries • Political instability • Political support for libraries and other information institutions • Concern for national security

  10. Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Physical Environment • Cost of paper affected by growing pressure to restrict logging practices • Global warming

  11. Step Three: Discuss possible futures • What will my library or other information institution look like ten years from now? • What will my role be in that library?

  12. Step Four: Create 2 or 3 scenarios • Pool knowledge of group • Effect of varied directions for factors examined • Include worst-case scenario • Be sure to include yourselves in your narratives—What will you be doing in this story?

  13. Step Five: Share a scenario with the class • What type of information institution are you looking at? • What might happen in the socio-economic and political spheres that might produce your scenario? • What will your institution look like? • What will your role be?

  14. Planning for the future • Don't bet future on single scenario • Make decisions that will be sound for a variety of plausible futures • How will we influence our stories?

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