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2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction

2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction. Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group October 26, 2005. GSO Forecast Background. Forecast predicts commercial addressable GSO satellite and launch vehicle demand over 10-year horizon Broken down into four satellite mass categories

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2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction

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  1. 2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group October 26, 2005

  2. GSO Forecast Background • Forecast predicts commercial addressable GSO satellite and launch vehicle demand over 10-year horizon • Broken down into four satellite mass categories • Produced annually by COMSTAC since 1993 • Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements as needed • Incorporates inputs from global space transportation and satellite industry • Comprehensive inputs from satellite and launch vehicle manufacturers • Individual inputs from satellite operators

  3. Technology & Innovation WG Members FAA/AST Tecolote Research, Inc Industry Experts From Launch Vehicle and Satellite Manufacturers, USG Civil Servants and Consultants

  4. Technology & Innovation WG Members Dr. Alexander Liang (WG Chair) - Aerospace Corporation Lisa Hague (Forecast Chair) - The Boeing Company I-Shih Chang - Aerospace Corporation Ethan Haase - Lockheed Martin/International Launch Services Bernard Hawkins - Aerospace Corporation William Hayes - Space Systems Loral Joe Hopkins - Industry expert Doug Howe - The Boeing Company Michael Izzo - Industry expert David Keslow - Orbital Sciences Corporation Debra Facktor Lepore - Kistler Aerospace Corporation Jennifer Miceli - Tecolote Research, Inc Chris O’Connell - Sea Launch, Inc Dave Pollock - Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne John Richards - ATK Kathy Shockey - Space Systems Loral John Sloan - FAA AST William Tosney - Aerospace Corp

  5. 2006 COMSTAC GSO Forecast Schedule Meetings COMSTAC Fall 05 Meeting COMSTAC Spring 06 Meeting Working Face-to-Face Meeting Telecon Kick-off Telecon Telecon Data Collection Operator and International Inputs Due FAA Issues Data Requests Comprehensive Inputs Due Data Analysis & Evaluation • Review data responses • Near-term forecast • Long-term forecast • Final report format Report Final Draft Report Draft #1 Report to COMSTAC members for review Reporting COMSTAC Approval

  6. Forecast Methodology • Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide • Individual demand requirements from operators • Comprehensive market inputs from satellite and launch manufacturers • Develop Long-Term (last 7 years) Forecast • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories • Develop Near-Term (1st 3 years) Mission Model • “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name • WG consensus based on most recent information & individual operator inputs as available • Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement

  7. Results from 2005 Forecast: Satellite Demand by Mass 2005 Forecast Indicated Continued Trend In Growth of Average Satellite Mass

  8. Interested in Joining Tech & Innovation WG? • Contact: Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services Lisa.m.hague@boeing.com 714-896-5603 -or- Dr. Alex Liang Aerospace Corp Alexander.c.liang@aero.org 310-336-4388 • 2005 Forecast Report: http://ast.faa.gov/files/pdf/Forecast_05-05_GSO_NGSO_Comm_Launch.pdf

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