Understanding fluctuation a demand and supply side perspectives
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 13

Understanding Fluctuation: A Demand and Supply Side Perspectives PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 179 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Understanding Fluctuation: A Demand and Supply Side Perspectives. Nilanjan Banik, PhD Associate Professor Center for Advanced Financial Studies Institute for Financial Management and Research. Full Employment Level of Output Versus Actual Output. GDP. Full Employment Level of Output.

Download Presentation

Understanding Fluctuation: A Demand and Supply Side Perspectives

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Understanding fluctuation a demand and supply side perspectives

Understanding Fluctuation: A Demand and Supply Side Perspectives

Nilanjan Banik, PhD

Associate Professor

Center for Advanced Financial Studies

Institute for Financial Management and Research


Full employment level of output versus actual output

Full Employment Level of Output Versus Actual Output

GDP

Full Employment

Level of Output

Peak

Peak

Actual Level of Output

Recession

Time


Growth versus development

Growth Versus Development

  • Growth is a uni-variate concept and measured as growth rate of per capita real GDP.

  • Development is a multivariate concept; essentially taking into account per capita GDP; mortality rate and literacy rate.


Gdp per capita going by ppp us

GDP per capita, going by PPP (US $)

Source: WDI Online Database


Development indicators

Development Indicators

Source: Economic Survey 2006-2007; National Institute of Rural Development.

' At 1993-1994 prices; !In 1999-2000 base year prices; * Figures for the year 1999-2000.


Understanding fluctuation a demand and supply side perspectives

Sectoral Shares of GDP

Source: Reserve Bank of India and CSO

! Percentage growth during that particular fiscal


Capital formation and employment share

Capital Formation and Employment Share

Source: Reserve Bank of India (2006); CSO (2006); NSSO (2006).


Growth and volatility

Growth and Volatility

Source: National Account Statistics


Factor productivity

Factor productivity

Source: Bosworth, Collins and Virmani (2006).

During 1993-99, output per worker in the services sector grew at a rate of 7 percent

Output per worker in the manufacturing sector grew at a rate 4.5 percent

Output per worker in the agricultural sector grew at a rate of 2.4 percent


Profits and sensex

Profits and Sensex

Source: Joshua Felman, International Monetary Fund


Some facts

Some Facts

  • “Among wage and salary earners the top 20 per cent of the population in urban India earns 56 per cent of the income while the bottom 20 per cent earns barely 3.4 per cent of the income” – pp.42

  • “Indeed the top 20 per cent earns more than all other put together” – pp.43

Source: India Today, September 18-24, 2007; NSSO – 2004-2005.


Data and methodology

Data and Methodology

  • Decompose agricultural, manufacturing and services, components of GDP into trend component and cyclical component.

  • It is a bi-variate model; with rainfall and individual GDP components - agriculture, manufacturing or services, all at the State level.

  • Trend component generally represents supply side whereas cyclical component generally represents demand side components.

  • Blanchard - Quah decomposition techniques is used for identifying demand and supply side shocks.


Results

Results

  • Supply side disturbances contribute most to fluctuation in agricultural output and least to fluctuation in services sector output.

  • Demand side disturbances mostly affect manufacturing output. Services output again are least affected.

  • Fluctuations are measured at a lag length of four quarters.


  • Login