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Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks

Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks. Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California Tufts University February 2005. Water and Conflict: Conclusions. There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water.

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Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks

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  1. Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California Tufts University February 2005

  2. Water and Conflict: Conclusions • There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water. • Such conflicts have taken many forms. • The risks of water-related disputes are growing. • But: water can also be a cause for cooperation, negotiation, and agreement.

  3. Key Concepts and Issues • “Environmental Security” • Water and conflict • “Water Wars” • International Rivers • Shared watersheds/watercourses • Environmental agreements and treaties

  4. Environment and Security • Outgrowth of the ending of the Cold War (mid-1980s); • Outgrowth of the improved understanding of environmental issues; • Marked by a rich, albeit cantankerous political science debate; • Water piece enriched by diverse case studies.

  5. Water and Conflict:Critical Issues • Fresh water is widely shared internationally. • Half of all land area on Earth • Over 260 “international river basins” • There is growing competition for water. • Rising populations • Rising demand from all sectors • International efforts to resolve water-related disputes are often inadequate.

  6. “Water Wars?” Or More Complex? • Water as a goal • Middle East (2700 BPE to present) • Water as a weapon • Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam • Water systems as targets • WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq • Water in development disputes • Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo Chronology of water conflicts: www.worldwater.org

  7. Number of International River Basins, by Continent Source: Wolf et al. 1999

  8. Danube 18 Congo 13 Niger 11 Nile 10 Zambezi 9 Lake Chad 8 Aral Sea 8 Rhine 8 Amazon 8 Volta 6 Jordan 6 Mekong 6 Tigris/Euphrates 6 Kura-Araks 6 Ganges/Brahmaputra 5 Neman 5 Vistula/Wista 5 La Plata 5 Transboundary Rivers Shared by Five or More States

  9. New Concerns/New Challenges? • Water and economic development: poverty, allocation. • Subnational, state-to-state, ethnic, local disputes are all increasingly common. • Water-related acts of terrorism.

  10. Subnational Water Conflicts; Terrorism Vaal Dam, South Africa, DWAF Los Angeles Aqueduct, Alabama Gates Credit: G.D.Bain 1991 Meuse River

  11. Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts • Technical (scarcity) * • Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors • Explore new supply options • Economic (allocation) • Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates • Re-evaluate agricultural policies • Institutional (management) • Joint basin management • Dispute resolution mechanisms • Political * • Effective and comprehensive joint agreements • Equitable water rights allocations and control

  12. The “productivity” of water use can be greatly increased

  13. Economic Productivity of Water: U.S.

  14. Economic Productivity of Water: Hong Kong

  15. Political Approaches: Treaties • Many specific international river basin treaties, e.g., • The Nile (the Sudan and Egypt) • The Colorado (the U.S. and Mexico) • The Jordan (Israel and Jordan) • The Ganges/Brahmaputra (India and Bangladesh) • Mixed success; continued challenges

  16. Political Approaches: General Principles of International Water Law • Obligation to Share Data • Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully • Equitable Utilization of Water • Prevention of Significant Harm • Obligation to Notify and Inform • Cooperative Management UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997)

  17. Conclusions: Water, Conflict, and Cooperation • There is a long history of both conflict and cooperation over fresh water resources. • New challenges are developing. • Will our abilities to reach agreement and cooperation keep pace with the developing challenges?

  18. Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California See also: www.worldwater.org

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