Measuring the pulse of africa
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 29

Measuring the Pulse of Africa PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 51 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

UNECA. 23 April 2009. African Economic Outlook 2010. Presentation of the AfDB /UNECA/OECD African Economic Outlook. Measuring the Pulse of Africa. Mario Pezzini , Director a.i ., OECD Development Centre Barfour Osei , Chief Research Economist, Development Research Department, AfDB

Download Presentation

Measuring the Pulse of Africa

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Measuring the pulse of africa

UNECA

23 April 2009

African Economic Outlook 2010

Presentation of the AfDB/UNECA/OECD African Economic Outlook

Measuring the Pulse of Africa

Mario Pezzini, Director a.i., OECD Development Centre

BarfourOsei, Chief Research Economist, Development Research Department, AfDB

Federico Bonaglia, Senior Policy Analyst, OECD Development Co-operation Directorate

FAO - Economic and Social Development Department

Rome, July 7th 2010


Measuring the pulse of africa

Overview

1

The AfBD/UNECA/OECD African Outlook

2

Highlights on the Macro-Economic Outlook

3

Implications for long-term growth


Measuring the pulse of africa

AEO Partners

UNECA

Lead partner

(since 2007/08)

Other partners

10 Independent African Think Tanks

Experts Network

Financial partners

(European Development Fund)


Measuring the pulse of africa

Increased coverage and relevance for the continent

  • Coverage

  • from 47 to 50 countries

  • (+ Comoros, Guinea-Bissau and Sao Tomé & Principe)

  • Relevance

  • 99.5% of Africa’s GDP

  • 97.3% of its population


Measuring the pulse of africa

Focusing on key structural issues every year

  • Special annual focus

    • 2003: Privatisation

    • 2004: Energy

    • 2005: SMEs

    • 2006: Transport

    • 2007: Water and sanitation

    • 2008: Technical & vocational skills development

    • 2009: Innovation and ICT

    • 2010: Public Resource Mobilisation and Aid


Measuring the pulse of africa

Highlights on the Macro-Economic Outlook

1

Macroeconomic Outlook

2

Drivers of Growth

3

The Global Crisis and Africa’s Resilience


Measuring the pulse of africa

2002-2008 Growth was sustained and accelerating...

Evolution of Real GDP and Real GDP per capita in Africa 1995-2010

Annualised average of RGDP per capita in USD - 2000- 2008

RGDP growth in Africa

1995-2008

% change

= 5.0% ≦ GDP pc (PPP) < 17.9%

= 2.5% ≦ GDP pc (PPP) <5.0%

= 0% ≦ GDP pc (PPP) < 2.5%

= -3.7% < GDP pc (PPP) < 0%

Source : AEO 2010


Measuring the pulse of africa

PART 1: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The outlook is generally positive...

+ 4.5% in 2010

+ 5.2% in 2011


Measuring the pulse of africa

PART 1: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Differentiated performance across the continent

Real GDP Growth


Measuring the pulse of africa

PART 1: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Projected 10 fastest growing countries in 2010


Measuring the pulse of africa

PART 1: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Projected 10 slowest growing countries in 2010


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 2: DRIVERS OF GROWTH

The drivers of growth still largely trade related...

Improving commodity prices and volumes

Oil and gold

Growth rates

Copper and aluminium

Rice, wheat and maize


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 2: DRIVERS OF GROWTH

Private financial flows are to rebound…

FDI flows to Africa

2000-2009


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

In 2009, the crisis slashed economic growth …

Real GDP Growth

… however, the continent continued growing and the impact was unequal across regions


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

Whereas some countries saw negative growth…

11 countries experienced declines in GDP per capita of 2% or more in 2009


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

… many others have proved resilient

Several countries saw GDP per capita increase between 3% and 7% in 2009


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

Economic policies key to resilience

% of GDP

%

Current Account Balance

Fiscal Balance

Macro balances deteriorated in 2009,

but are expected to improve in the mid-term


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

Supportive aid flows

ODA (not declined)


Measuring the pulse of africa

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

Dynamic emerging partners have also

supported growth and assisted with the recovery

ODA (not declined)

Real GDP growth in Africa and emerging countries


Measuring the pulse of africa

While emerging partners dynamism helped to support growth

and to trigger recovery

SECTION 3: THE GLOBAL CRISIS AND AFRICA’S RESILIENCE

China’s role stands out


Measuring the pulse of africa

Implications for long term growth

1

Challenges and risks ahead

2

Public Resource Mobilisation


Measuring the pulse of africa

CHALLENGES AND RISKS AHEAD

Key risks

Annual Food Price Indices

(2002-04=100)

  • Global economy not recovering as expected

  • Exit strategies might be politically difficult and harm fundamentals

  • Expectations of food prices rising again  new social tensions?

  • Commodity driven growth might bring further specialisation and growth volatility

AEO Diversification Index


Measuring the pulse of africa

CHALLENGES AND RISKS AHEAD

Beyond crisis recovery

Address the structural problems that existed before the global crisis and constrain the potential of sustained endogenous growth, in particular:

  • Further improving political and economic governance

  • Improving infrastructure

  • Reducing barriers for intra-African trade

  • Combating inequalities and poverty

    … including through improved domestic resource mobilisation


Measuring the pulse of africa

PUBLIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION

Mobilising Africa’s public resources: can and must be achieved

Average

Median

Source: Development Centre, based on AEO country survey’s, 2010.


Measuring the pulse of africa

PUBLIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION

Encouraging trends considering income levels

≈ USD 3000

≈ USD 500

≈ USD 70

2007

2007

Source: Development Centre, based on AEO country survey’s, 2010.


Measuring the pulse of africa

PUBLIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION

But driven by volatile and unbalanced sources of income

Tax share = 36.4% of GDP

Taxes on income and profits = 11.6% of GDP

VAT = 10.5% of GDP

Residual taxes = 14.3% of GDP

Compared to Germany:

Source: Development Centre, based on AEO country survey’s, 2010.


Measuring the pulse of africa

PUBLIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION

Four Challenges for African Tax Policy Makers

1. Inadequate capacity

Small staff, low pay, IT, governance …

2. Low to very low fiscal legitimacy

Health, infrastructure, education …

3. Shallow tax base

Informal sector = about 75%

4. Unbalanced tax mix

Some overtaxed, some undertaxed

Source: Centre de Développement, sur la base des notes pays des Perspectives économiques en Afrique, 2010.


Measuring the pulse of africa

PUBLIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION

At national level

  • In the short run

  • Tax big informal and formal transactions better

  • Fight fraud and fiscal evasion

  • In the medium / long run

  • Stimulate private sector development

  • Moderate, broad-based effective tax rates

  • Strengthen administrative capacity

  • Build fiscal legitimacy by improving quality of expenditure


Measuring the pulse of africa

UNECA

Thank you

www.AfricanEconomicOutlook.org


  • Login