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IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham. TAMING THE NET. Famous Last Words. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.". "640K ought to be enough for anybody.". -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943. -- Bill Gates, 1981. Famous Last Words.

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IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham

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IPv6WTC 2000May 10th, Birmingham


TAMING THE NET


Famous Last Words

  • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

  • "640K ought to be enough for anybody."

-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

-- Bill Gates, 1981


Famous Last Words

  • “32 bits should be enough address space for Internet”

-- Vint Cerf, 1977


IP on

Everything

v6


Television(1926)

Electricity(1873)

Microwave(1953)

Radio(1905)

Telephone(1876)

VCR(1952)

Automobile(1886)

PC(1975)

Internet(1975)

Industry Standards Drive Ubiquity

100

80

60

Percentage of Ownership

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Years Since Introduction


Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000How Many behind Firewalls and NATs?

  • CAN/US - 125

  • Europe - 48

  • Asia/Pac - 46

  • Latin Am - 10

  • Africa - 3

    -----------------------------------

  • Total - 232 Mio Users


Will IP Scale and remain Robust ?

  • 75% of traffic on Internet is WWW

  • 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)

  • 700 Million web pages (and dark info)

  • Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)

  • 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)

  • Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported

  • 300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002


Can the Internet runQuality & Security in one go?

  • Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio”

  • Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV

  • Real-time quality of service support, VoIP

  • Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)


Internet-enabled DevicesIn need of IP Addresses, at least!

  • Information appliances

    • 1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)

  • WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games

  • Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)


Non-Traditional Applications

Source: Metricom Inc., 1997


InfoCom Application Areas

Appliance

Person

Growing

Emerging

Notifications

ITS

Appliance

Alarm

Telemetry

Fax

Computer TeIephony Integration

Home Banking

Email

Person

Voice

Voice Control

VoiceMail

Maturing

Growing


Source: Cadence, 1998


Source: Cadence, 1998


Any Time, Any Where


Wireless Internet

  • e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras

  • “always on” networking

    • increasing demand for IP address space

  • “Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite

  • 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)


Cerf’s Inversion

Today:you go through a

circuit switchto get to apacket switch.

Tomorrow:you’ll go through a

packet switchto get to a

circuit switch.


NASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint CerfSpace: the final frontier

Our 25 year mission: to go where

no network has gone before!


  • End-to-end information flow across the solar system

  • Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability

  • IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times

  • Integrated communications and navigation services


The Interconnected World


“The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”


Telecom

Datacom

Mobility

2G Internet

The strategic direction

Wirelinetelephony

Voice over IP

GSM

3G

(UMTS)

3G Internet

WAN/LANdata

1G Internet

Mobiledata

1G mobile Internet


Mobile Internet

The Rush to the Billion!

Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’

1 B

1,000

Fixed

800

600

Mobile

(Millions)

Internet

400

200

0

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004


Global IP Mobility

Seamless services

Mobile Information Society

Wireless,

secure,

high speed

access

Mobile

multimedia

Fast

Internet

& Intranet

Messaging internet always on

Shared

databases &

applications

Mobile

telephony

IP

Wide AreaCoverage

Local AreaCoverage


Cerf’s Prediction

  • By 2010, 100% of all traffic will be packetized!.


Internet Scaling challenges

Great IP Address Crunch

QoS

Accurate system information

Security

Authentication and usage tracking

Maintain IS technical advantage


Have-Nots

IP Address Haves &


Have-Nots

IP Address Haves &


IP Robustness & Scalability

IPv4 IPv6

Y

N

N?

Y

  • Address Space Shortage

  • Security

  • Cost of System Management

  • Lack of Capability needed for Next Generation Applications

N

Y?

IPv4 ((NAT))IPv6

1970

1980

1990

2000

IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!


The routing problem is getting out of controlled, despite CIDR!


Early conclusion

Internet Growth

The Coming Tidal Wave

+ Wireless Growth

+ Always-On

+ Info Soft

Appliances

 Internet 2000 is a baby!

100 IP Adds/person!


Yv4

Finally

The Other Tidal Wave

The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complicated the transition will be !

(compare to Y2K!)


IPv6 FORUM

Vint CERF

Honorary Chairman

Outernet: InterPlaNet!


www.ipv6forum.com

Join the Future, Now!

THANK YOU


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