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Assessing confidence and communicating meaning: The experience of the LWEC Climate Change Impact Report Cards Mike Morecroft. LWEC Climate Change Impacts Report Card for Biodiversity and ecosystems. Accessible high level summary Underpinned by peer reviewed reviews

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Assessing confidence and communicating meaning:

The experience of the LWEC Climate Change Impact Report Cards

Mike Morecroft


Lwec climate change impacts report card for biodiversity and ecosystems
LWEC Climate Change Impacts Report Card for Biodiversity and ecosystems

Accessible high level summary

Underpinned by peer reviewed reviews

Consensus of research community

One of a series of climate change impacts report cards covering different sectors



LWEC Climate Change Impacts Report Card for Biodiversity ecosystems

Peer review:

Independent group

Peer review:

Working group

Peer review:

Review authors


Evidence on climate change impacts
Evidence on climate change impacts ecosystems

Monitoring and survey

Experiment

Theory

Modelling

indicators


Assessing confidence
Assessing confidence ecosystems

agreement

Overall confidence

Amount of evidence

Over the last century the directions of change in range margins of many animal species are consistent with recorded increases in temperature. H


Lessons for indicators
Lessons for indicators ecosystems

Consensus of scientific community

Peer review

Traceability to primary research / monitoring

Assessment of confidence / uncertainty

Indicators are part of a larger evidence base

Qualitative assessments can be valuable as well as quantitative

Text can be powerful

Communication matters


There ecosystemsis strong evidence that climate change is already affecting UK biodiversity. Impacts are expected to increase as the magnitude of climate change increases.


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