Primary & Secondary Incident Management Dr. Asad Khattak Old Dominion University [email protected] Acknowledge: H. Zhang, X. Wang, L. Zheng, K. Yang ITSVA Conference Results are preliminary. Secondary Incidents. HR ~45,000 incidents responded to yearly Secondary incidents-3% to 15%
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Secondary incident with….
Section3Some incidents may be missed
Section3Issue: 1 Pair (C1 vs. C2, C3, C4) or 2 Pairs (C1, C2) and (C3, C4)
Maximum Queue length (Qmax ) caused by incident is indicated as green dash line
V = Demand (vph)
C = Capacity (vph)
Ci = Remaining capacity due to incident (vph)
T = Incident duration (hours)
Total vehicle delay (TD) caused by incident is the colored triangular area between the arrival and departure curve
Two bounds: Rubbernecking effect
Total incidents = 38614
Individual and Secondary Incidents
Frequency Distribution (2006)
Individual Incident Distribution Density
Secondary Incident Distribution Density
Use linear model
Duration = b0 + b1 (Detection) + b2 (weather) + b3 (Type) + b4 (Laneclose) + b5 (# of vehicles) + b6(EMS) + b7(AADT) + b8 (Rightshoulder) + b9 (leftshoulder) + b10(ramp)+b11(Resptime) + b12(Primary) + e
Use Binary Logistic model
Logit(P(SEC)) = g0 + g1 (Detection) + g2 (weather) + g3 (Type) + g4 (Laneclose) + g5(# of vehicles) + g6(EMS) + g7 (AADT) + g8 (Rightshoulder) + g9 (Leftshoulder) + g10 (ramp) + b11(Resptime) + b12(Duration) + b13(TOD)+ u
Used all normal incidents and primary incidents.
Not including the secondary incidents since they are highly associated with the primary incidents.
The Pseudo R2 for Log transformed model is higher
Use all “normal” incidents and “primary” incidents. Not including the secondary incidents since they are highly associated with the primary incidents.
Residual is significant
Delay of 163 primary incidents on I-64 WB in 2006
Nearly 80% primary incidents have no delay
Total: 305,195 Vehicle-Hours
Caveat: Method applies in certain conditions