STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS. OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2011* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst. *To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions). $5,969.3m. $5,916.4m.
OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE
November 1, 2011*
*To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November.
Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1%
Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31%
Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 8.22%) and ROADS increases (11 Session)
Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2012 Act – Normalized Ave. 2.97%
Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OSF actual numbers and effects of current law.
FY-2012 – FY-2014
Ave. 0.1% Growth
Ave. 0.2% Growth
Ave. 4.0% Growth
Ave. 4.4% Growth
JUNE BOE EST
10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND –BASED OSF PROJECTIONS
SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS, LESS INC TAX CHANGE
(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)
(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)
JUNE BOE ESTIMATE
Based on OSF 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, Less Pers Inc Tax Rate Change
OHLAP or ROADS Funding Not Removed