State budget outlook multi year trend analysis
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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS. OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2011* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst. *To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions). $5,969.3m. $5,916.4m.

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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

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State budget outlook multi year trend analysis

STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE

November 1, 2011*

Shelly Paulk

Revenue Analyst

*To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November.


General revenue trends income vs expenditures in millions

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures(In Millions)

$5,969.3m

$5,916.4m

Actual Collections

OFFICIAL ESTIMATE

$5,759.2m

($104.3)

$527.2

$429.1

$5,236.3

$772.8

$5,665.4m

$267.9

$503

$621.3

$156.9

Appropriations

Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1%

Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31%

Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 8.22%) and ROADS increases (11 Session)

Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2012 Act – Normalized Ave. 2.97%

Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OSF actual numbers and effects of current law.


State budget outlook multi year trend analysis

General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)

FY-2012 – FY-2014

Ave.3.0% Growth

Ave. 0.1% Growth

Ave. 0.2% Growth

Ave. 4.0% Growth

Ave. 4.4% Growth

OSF ACTUAL

JUNE BOE EST

10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND –BASED OSF PROJECTIONS

SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS, LESS INC TAX CHANGE


General revenue growth 5 major sources in millions with of change from prior year

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year)

(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)

5.4%

4.2%

(6.7%)

4.4%

1.6%

2.8%

12.6%

(17.3%)

JUNE BOE ESTIMATE

Based on OSF 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, Less Pers Inc Tax Rate Change

ACTUALS

OHLAP or ROADS Funding Not Removed


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