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Global Warming: A Challenge for Green Trade. Andrew J. Weaver School of Earth & Ocean Sciences University of Victoria. Taipei, Taiwan June 13, 2012. 1962 Life Magazine Advertisement. Globally-Averaged Surface Temperature since 1880.

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Global warming a challenge for green trade

Global Warming: A Challenge forGreen Trade

Andrew J. Weaver

School of Earth & Ocean Sciences

University of Victoria

Taipei, Taiwan

June 13, 2012



Globally-Averaged Surface Temperature since 1880

Surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average


The Top 10 Warmest Years since 1880

Surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average

11th

Upper ocean heat content from 1955-2005 relative to the 1961-1990 average



Solar forcing & the global mean surface temperature record

Lockwood, M., and C. Fröhlich, 2007: Recent oppositely

directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global

mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal

Society, Series A, 463, 2447–2460.

Mike Lockwood

Claus Fröhlich

“…over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.”





Annual mean projections of future climate

Average from many models (relative to years 1980–1999)

Annual mean projections of future climate

1.8°C globally warmer

0.2°C/decade

warming

independent

of

emissions

trajectory

4.0°C globally warmer

Intergenerational Equity


Summer surface temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean in units of the local detrended 1981-2010 standard deviation

Percent >1 standard deviation (σ): 31.7%; Percent >2σ: 4.6%;

Percent >3σ: 0.27%; Percent >4σ: 0.006%; Percent >5σ: 0.000057%

Hansen, Sato, Rueby (2012) Public perception of climate change and the new climate dice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, submitted.


Precipitation mean in units of the local detrended 1981-2010 standard deviation

2080–2099 average of many models relative to 1980–1999


Smith, JB, SH Schneider, M Oppenheimer et al., 2009: Assessing dangerous climate change

through an update of the IPCC "reasons for concern". Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0812355106

2°C Guardrail


Reasons for concern

Response of natural ecosystems Assessing dangerous climate change

Working Group II of the IPCC

50% of all nature reserves will no longer fulfill their conservation mandate

Reasons for Concern

3 °C further warming

9%–31% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

0.9 °C further warming

15%–37% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

1.5 °C further warming

21%-52% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

2.2 °C further warming

40%-70% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

3.3 °C further warming


Reasons for concern1

Global security and political instability Assessing dangerous climate change

Impacts are distributed disproportionately to subtropical and hence developing world

80% of cumulative past emissions come from the developed world

But

Reasons for Concern

Developed nations have technological and economic ability to assist in adaptation

Developing nations have neither technological nor economic ability to adapt

But

Environmental Refugees!


USA & Canada on the International Scene (2008 data) Assessing dangerous climate change

Per capita carbon emissions in metric tonnes

Total carbon emissions in millions in metric tonnes

#57 Iceland

1.93

Canada / 2.3

#76 Sweden

1.45!

Canada / 3.1

#205 Ethiopia

0.02!

Canada /223


Global population growth Assessing dangerous climate change

80% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from more developed nations

 80% of the problem from 20% of the people


Global population growth 2004 Assessing dangerous climate change


Cumulative emissions of CO Assessing dangerous climate change2 from 1900-2005 (millions of tons of CO2)


Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Sources Assessing dangerous climate change

1) Combustion of Fossil Fuels:

Fossil Fuel + Oxygen = Carbon Dioxide + Water Vapour + Heat

2) Cement Production

Limestone (CaCO3) + Clay or SiO2 heated to produce “clinker”

 CO2

3) Deforestation

2010:

Combustion of fossil fuels: 8.7 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Cement production: 0.4Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Land Use Change: 0.9 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010:

Fossil fuel combustion + Cement Productions:

365Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Deforestation & land use emissions:

162Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Today deforestation has contributed 1/3 of the problem

Tomorrow reforestation can contribute 1/3 of the solution


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