Global warming a challenge for green trade
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Global Warming: A Challenge for Green Trade. Andrew J. Weaver School of Earth & Ocean Sciences University of Victoria. Taipei, Taiwan June 13, 2012. 1962 Life Magazine Advertisement. Globally-Averaged Surface Temperature since 1880.

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Global warming a challenge for green trade

Global Warming: A Challenge forGreen Trade

Andrew J. Weaver

School of Earth & Ocean Sciences

University of Victoria

Taipei, Taiwan

June 13, 2012


Global warming a challenge for green trade

1962 Life Magazine Advertisement


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Globally-Averaged Surface Temperature since 1880

Surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average


Global warming a challenge for green trade

The Top 10 Warmest Years since 1880

Surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average

11th

Upper ocean heat content from 1955-2005 relative to the 1961-1990 average


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Direct measurements of solar intensity


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Solar forcing & the global mean surface temperature record

Lockwood, M., and C. Fröhlich, 2007: Recent oppositely

directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global

mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal

Society, Series A, 463, 2447–2460.

Mike Lockwood

Claus Fröhlich

“…over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.”


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent

September 16, 2007


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage


Annual mean projections of future climate

Average from many models (relative to years 1980–1999)

Annual mean projections of future climate

1.8°C globally warmer

0.2°C/decade

warming

independent

of

emissions

trajectory

4.0°C globally warmer

Intergenerational Equity


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Summer surface temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean in units of the local detrended 1981-2010 standard deviation

Percent >1 standard deviation (σ): 31.7%; Percent >2σ: 4.6%;

Percent >3σ: 0.27%; Percent >4σ: 0.006%; Percent >5σ: 0.000057%

Hansen, Sato, Rueby (2012) Public perception of climate change and the new climate dice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, submitted.


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Precipitation

2080–2099 average of many models relative to 1980–1999


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Smith, JB, SH Schneider, M Oppenheimer et al., 2009: Assessing dangerous climate change

through an update of the IPCC "reasons for concern". Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0812355106

2°C Guardrail


Reasons for concern

Response of natural ecosystems

Working Group II of the IPCC

50% of all nature reserves will no longer fulfill their conservation mandate

Reasons for Concern

3 °C further warming

9%–31% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

0.9 °C further warming

15%–37% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

1.5 °C further warming

21%-52% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

2.2 °C further warming

40%-70% of the world’s species become committed to extinction

3.3 °C further warming


Reasons for concern1

Global security and political instability

Impacts are distributed disproportionately to subtropical and hence developing world

80% of cumulative past emissions come from the developed world

But

Reasons for Concern

Developed nations have technological and economic ability to assist in adaptation

Developing nations have neither technological nor economic ability to adapt

But

Environmental Refugees!


Global warming a challenge for green trade

USA & Canada on the International Scene (2008 data)

Per capita carbon emissions in metric tonnes

Total carbon emissions in millions in metric tonnes

#57 Iceland

1.93

Canada / 2.3

#76 Sweden

1.45!

Canada / 3.1

#205 Ethiopia

0.02!

Canada /223


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Global population growth

80% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from more developed nations

 80% of the problem from 20% of the people


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Global population growth 2004


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Cumulative emissions of CO2 from 1900-2005 (millions of tons of CO2)


Global warming a challenge for green trade

Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Sources

1)Combustion of Fossil Fuels:

Fossil Fuel + Oxygen = Carbon Dioxide + Water Vapour + Heat

2)Cement Production

Limestone (CaCO3) + Clay or SiO2 heated to produce “clinker”

 CO2

3)Deforestation

2010:

Combustion of fossil fuels:8.7 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Cement production:0.4Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Land Use Change:0.9 Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010:

Fossil fuel combustion + Cement Productions:

365Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Deforestation & land use emissions:

162Gigatonnes of carbon (109 kg C)

Today deforestation has contributed 1/3 of the problem

Tomorrow reforestation can contribute 1/3 of the solution


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