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CJS - Chapter 4

CJS - Chapter 4. Start with Incapacitation Selective Incapacitation (targets HROs) (seems like good common sense and rational policy - theoretically ) Gross Incapacitation (targets mostly LROs) ( not such a good idea - more later ). CJS - Chapter 4.

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CJS - Chapter 4

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  1. CJS - Chapter 4 Start with Incapacitation Selective Incapacitation (targets HROs) (seems like good common sense and rational policy - theoretically) Gross Incapacitation (targets mostly LROs) (not such a good idea - more later)

  2. CJS - Chapter 4 What is a "high rate offender”? (HRO) -- Chronic vs. Spree offenders? -- How does “Into Crime” relate? -- How does “Aging Out” relate?

  3. CJS - Chapter 4 How did Marvin Wolfgang do his “cohort studies”? • 1945 birth cohort, until 18 yo (1963) • Juveniles! • “Police contacts” (arrests!) This is what he found

  4. CJS - Chapter 4 “6% of offenders commit 50% of crimes” - why is this misleading? Who commits crimes vs. Who gets caught (Remember 10% clearance rate!) 6% of arrestees make up 50% of arrests (because of multiple arrests)

  5. CJS - Chapter 4 The “usual suspects” problem Low clearance rates Another dilemma - are those who commit more crimes, more likely, or less likely, to get caught??

  6. CJS - Chapter 4 So ..... are there really any HROs? Probably, but .......

  7. CJS - Chapter 4 Relatively few get caught (low clearance) Plus - they make up a very small proportion of all “caught offenders” Like a “Needle in a haystack” -- which leads to –- the “prediction problem”

  8. CJS - Chapter 4 Many are probably spree offenders - continue because they don’t get caught -- quit when they do get caught -- or quit when they age out -- or just stop “self-incapacitating”

  9. CJS - Chapter 4 More on the “prediction problem” Can we identify HROs among caught offenders (find the needle in the haystack) early in their “careers” to prevent a lot of crime and lower overall crime rates? Identifying them late doesn’t help to lower crime rates because they are already aging out.

  10. CJS - Chapter 4 Three basic methods: • “High Risk” characteristics • History of offending/getting caught • Clinical evaluation None work!! No better than guessing!!

  11. CJS - Chapter 4 What are false positives & false negatives? False pos - id as HRO when they are not False neg - id as not HRO when they are (need to know these!!)

  12. CJS - Chapter 4 What did the Rand studies conclude about predicting HROs early enough to lower crime rates? What are “Retrospective studies” Prediction doesn’t work!

  13. CJS - Chapter 4 Bottom line - Can we identify the small group of HROs “hidden” among caught offenders early in their careers, incapacitate them, and thus lower crime rates? No way to do this – it sounds good -- but it doesn’t work.

  14. CJS - Chapter 4 And -- The futile attempt to do this is disastrous! Back to gross incapacitation - if we can’t incapacitate HROs then imprison all offenders - HROs must be in the net too(fits conservative theology)!!

  15. CJS - Chapter 4 This contributes to the imprisonment binge and leads to: • Overcrowded prisons & breakdown of prisons • Huge costs - reduces social services • Massive recidivism rates and “reentry” problems • “Ripple effects” (families/communities) • And in the end probably higher crime rates!!

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