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CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist. 36-km domain Strong ridge of high pressure aloft – at 500 mb. 21-hr forecast, valid last Tuesday night. 36-km domain 700 mb (~10K ft) humidity and wind 36-hr forecast, valid last

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CANSAC Products tour

From the perspective of an operational

fire-weather Meteorologist


36-km domain

Strong ridge

of high pressure

aloft – at 500 mb.

21-hr forecast,

valid last

Tuesday night


36-km domain

700 mb

(~10K ft) humidity

and wind

36-hr forecast,

valid last

Wednesday afternoon


36-km domain

850 mb

(~5000 ft level) Temps –colors

Pressure –lines and Wind- barbs

60-hr forecast,

valid last

Thursday afternoon


12-km domain

700 mb

(~10,000 ft level) Temps – colors

Pressure – lines and Wind- barbs

36-hr forecast,

valid two afternoons ago


12-km domain

700 mb

(~10,000 ft level) RH – colors

Vert Vel. – lines & Wind- barbs

18-hr forecast,

valid this past Mon. evening

Blue in ID/east OR is lift ahead of an upper-level trough


Above is a comparison of what we call Thickness (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

overall airmass temperature. The mild airmass of Monday morning is on left, and

a much colder airmass (Wed. morning) following recent weather change is on the right.


12-km domain (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

Surface level

Temps – colors

Pressure – lines Wind- barbs

15-hr forecast,

valid back on Monday, when CA was still in warm airmass


12-km domain (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

This is a map of the high-level Haines Index. It isa 48-hour forecast valid yesterday morning.

This Index is meant to

depict the potential for large fire growth, given an existing wild-

fire. But it doesn’t

take wind into account. It’s best use is to predict plume-dominated vs wind-driven fire behavior.


12-km domain (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

Pressure – blue lines

Wind speed – colors

Important to remem-

ber on these upper air

maps: Wind is shown

in meters/sec. You

can approximate mph

speeds by doubling the

value shown here.

In other words, the

southern UT winds

are over 50 mph!

54-hr fcst, valid

yesterday morning.


12-km domain (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

Same idea as previous

frame, except at a higher level – this time

500 mb, about 18000’.

Winds over Bay Area and Tahoe exceed

80 mph!

48 hour forecast

valid 4am yesterday

morning


12-km domain (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

Map of 24-hr total predicted precipitation, for the period 4 pm PST Tuesday

to 4pm Wed.

Scale is in inches. Each level up is double the amount of

predicted rain.


Some other useful information (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

found on the main Products

matrix page

The first highlighted here is the

“MM5 Notices and Problems Log”


Other useful information, (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

continued….

This is where you click to look

at Air Quality Products. It is a

relatively new section of the page.

Evan Shipp will cover some of

these shortly


Air Quality Products (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge


Other useful information, (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

continued ….

This is where you click to look

at NFDRS Products. This page

Requires a login and password.


Experimental (1000-500mb). We use it to gaugeNFDRS 1-day Forecasts

National Fire Danger Rating System

When you click on

one of these images

you get a full screen

of that image.

For example, Energy

Release Component

(ERC) here


Energy Release Component (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge Forecast Initialization: 20060214 00Z -- Valid for 20060214


Other useful information, (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge

continued ….

This is where you click to find

Verification products for

our CANSAC MM5 model.


300 mb Heights, Winds (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge – Analysis etc. 300 mb Heights, Winds -- Model

500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model

700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis etc. 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds – Model

850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model


Verification from 12-km domain. One can also look at 36-km and 4-km domains

In the verification example above, the MM5 model’s 48-hour forecast of 500mb

temperatures, pressure (height) lines, and winds are on the right. The forecast

was made at 12z (4am PST) on Feb. 10th, so it predicts for the time of 12z on

Feb. 12th. What actually happened at 12z on Feb. 12th (i.e. the verification) is

shown on the left.


Other useful information, and 4-km domains

continued ….

This is where you can

provide feedback to

the CEFA/DRI folks

who run the MM5 model


This frame shows most of the products from the 4-km domain, i.e, the

model domain with the best resolution




4-km domain 1pm this afternoon (2/16)

Predicted surface

temperatures

in the current cold airmass.

In CANSAC graphics, surface temp maps are in Fahrenheit, while upper maps are in in ºC.

This is a 57-hour projection, valid 1300 PST Friday.


4-km domain 1pm this afternoon (2/16)

Predicted surface

Relative Humidity

This is a 33-hour projection, valid 1300 PST today.


In the MM5’s 4-km Domain section, 1pm this afternoon (2/16)

You can click on ‘Soundings’. This

will bring you to the map on the

left. Placing your cursor over a

Sounding point will bring a small

pop-up with the Site name.

When you click you will see the first (zero forecast hr) Sounding, with a top menu bar containing the other 20 choices at 3-hour intervals out through 60 hours.


Sounding at 1pm this afternoon (2/16)

Sonora CA

valid 4am PST

2/8/06


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