Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast
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Edward O ’ Lenic 1 and Zoltan Toth 2 NOAA-NWS- 1 Climate Prediction Center 2 Environmental Modeling Center Camp Springs, Maryland [email protected] 301-763-8000, ext 7528. NAEFS and the North American Week 2 Forecast. Overview of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS).

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Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

Edward O’Lenic1 and Zoltan Toth2

NOAA-NWS-1Climate Prediction Center

2Environmental Modeling Center

Camp Springs, Maryland

[email protected]

301-763-8000, ext 7528

NAEFS and the North American Week 2 Forecast


Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

Overview of the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

Prepared by Zoltan Toth

Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

USA

June 24, 2005

Acknowledgements: Louis Lefaivre, MSC, Canada

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html


Outline

OUTLINE

  • PARTICIPANTS

  • PROJECT DESCRIPTION

  • TIMELINE

  • IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

  • CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

  • BASIC PRODUCTS

  • END PRODUCTS

  • JOINT NCEP-MSC

  • WEEK 2 FORECAST


Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

NAEFS ORGANIZATION

Meteorological Service of Canada, MSC National Weather Service, USA, NWS

National Meteorological Service of Mexico NMSM

PROJECT OVERSIGHT

Michel Beland, Director, ACSD

Jean-Guy Desmarais, Director, AEPD

Gilbert Brunet, MRB

Louis Uccellini (Director, NCEP/NWS)

Greg Mandt (Director, OST/NWS)

Steve Lord, EMC

PROJECT CO-LEADERS

Louis Lefaivre (Implementation) -Zoltan Toth(Science)

JOINT TEAM MEMBERS

Meteorological Research Branch MRB

Peter Houtekamer, Herschel Mitchell,

Lawrence Wilson

Canadian Meteorological Center CMC

Yves Pelletier, Gerard Pellerin,

Richard Verret, Alain Patoine,

Manon Lajoie 

Environmental Modeling Center EMC

Bo Cui, Richard Wobus, Yuejian Zhu

NCEP Central Operations NCO:

David Michaud / Brent Gordon / Scott Jacobs

Climate Prediction Center CPC

Ed O’Lenic, David Unger

NWS Richard Grumm, Fred Branski


Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

NAEFS is an international project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products

Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA

80+ members per cycle, 2 cycles per day from MSC & NWS

6-hourly output frequency (instead of current 12-hourly)

Replaces current 56 (16 MSC, 40 NCEP) members once a day setup

Generates products for

Intermediate users

e.g., weather forecasters at NCEP Service Centers (US NWS)

Specialized users

e.g., hydrologic applications in all three countries

End users

e.g., forecasts for public distribution in Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)

Prototype ensemble component of THORpex Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

Operational outlet for THORpex research using THORpex Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive


Thor pex th e o bserving system r esearch and p rediction ex periment

THORpex: THe Observing system, Research and prediction experiment

A ten-year international research program aimed at accelerating improvements in deterministic and ensemble-probabilistic predictions of high-impact weather for both short range (up to 3 days) and medium range (4 to 14 days) time scales.

Has four subprograms:

Predictability research and numerical experimentation

THORpex observing system tests, e.g., targeted observations, various weather types

Global Field Campaign – 1 year in length (2009 or 2010)

Includes all in-situ systems and

available remote sensing systems

Real-time data availability

Includes all predictable

time scales out to 14 days

Societal and Economic

Impact Assessment


Anticipated benefits

ANTICIPATED BENEFITS

Improved probabilistic forecast performance

Earlier warnings for severe weather

Lower detection threshold due to more ensemble members

Uncertainty better captured via analysis/model/ensemble diversity

A seamless suite of forecasts across

International boundaries

Canada, Mexico, USA

Different time ranges (1-14 days)

Development cost savings through

Sharing scientific algorithms, codes, scripts

Accelerated implementation schedule

Low-cost diversity via multi-center analysis/model/ensemble methods

Exchanging complementary application tools

MSC focus on end users (public)

NWS focus on intermediate user (forecaster)

Production cost savings through

Leveraging computational resources

Each center needs to run only fraction of total ensemble members

Providing back-up for operations in case of emergencies

Use nearly identical operational procedures at both centers to provide basic products

Offers as default basic products based on unaffected center’s ensemble


Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTSNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

NEW NWP

Sub-systems developed in coordination

End-to-end forecast process

Strong feedback among components

Two-way interaction

Error/uncertainty accounted for

TRADITIONAL NWP

Each discipline developed on its own

Disjoint steps in forecast process

Little or no feedback

One-way flow of information

Uncertainty in process ignored

SOCIOEC.

SOCIOEC.

SYSTEM

SYSTEM

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE


Project history milestones

PROJECT HISTORY & MILESTONES

February 2003, Long Beach, CA

NOAA / MSC high level agreement about joint ensemble research/development work (J. Hayes, L. Uccellini, D. Rogers, M. Beland, P. Dubreuil, J. Abraham)

May 2003, Montreal (MSC)

1st NAEFS Workshop, planning started

November 2003, MSC & NWS

1st draft of NAEFS Research, Development & Implementation Plan complete

May 2004, Camp Springs, MD (NCEP)

Executive Review

September 2004, MSC & NWS

Initial Operational Capability implemented at MSC & NWS

November 2004, Camp Springs

Inauguration ceremony & 2nd NAEFS Workshop

Leaders of NMS of Canada, Mexico, USA signed memorandum

50 scientists from 5 countries & 8 agencies

March 2006, MSC & NWS

1st Operational Implementation

Bias correction

Climate anomaly forecasts

March 2007, 2008, MSC, NWS

Follow-up implementations

Improved and expanded product suite


Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

INAUGURATIONCEREMONY


Tentative implementation schedule

TENTATIVE IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

March 2006

1st NAEFS product suite

NCEP operational web pages (incl. Caribbean & South American products)

“Experimental” status for first 60 days

NAWIPS grids for NCEP service centers, NDGD grids

Feb 2006

Bias correction, Weighting, Climate anomaly (BWC) algorithms oprnl

Dec 2005

BWC Codes/scripts delivered to NCO

Nov 2005

Operational data exchange established

Oct 2005

BWC Codes/algorithms exchanged between MSC-NCEP

Sept 2005

Decision regarding BWC & Product implementation details


Concept of operations

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

Exchange ~50 selected variables

Use GRIB2 to reduce volume of data

Basic Products will be generated at both MSC and NCEP

Same algorithms/codes used at both centers

Duplicate procedures provide full backup in case of problems at either end

If one component of ensemble missing, products based on rest of ensemble

These form the basis for different sets of center-specific end products

Ensures consistency between end products even if their format is different

All basic products to be made available via ftp to user and research community

Reduce systematic error through bias estimation

Determine weights and combine MSC and NCEP ensemble

Express forecast in terms of climatological anomalies

Prepare & compare forecast with reanalysis climate distribution

Generate center-specific end products – North American Week 2 Forecast

Evaluate & provide feedback for improvements

Verification using same algorithms

User feedback


Basic products

BASIC PRODUCTS

NAEFS basic products

Bias corrected members - 40 members, NAEFS variables, GRIB2

Bias correction against each center’s own operational analysis

Create weights for each member for use in creating a distribution

Weights depend on geographical location

Climate anomaly percentiles for each member (non-dimensional)

Allows downscaling of scalar variables to any local climatology

Issues – Products to be added in future years

Bias correction on precipitation and other variables

Need reliable and bias-free satellite-based analysis of precipitation rates

Collaborators needed – CPC (Janowiak), NESDIS?

Climate anomalies exist for the15 most frequently used variables

Need to use reanalysis data to describe climatology for rest of variables


End products

END PRODUCTS

Can be center specific

Conform with procedures/requirements established at different centers

End products generated at NCEP

Based on prioritized list of requests from NCEP Service Centers

End products generated at MSC

TBD

End products generated jointly

Experimental probabilistic Week-2 forecast

Fully automated, based on basic products: bias corrected, weighted climate anomalies

Can become official product once performance reaches current operational level


Naefs week two forecast process

NAEFS Week-Two Forecast Process

Operational Analysis, O

Multi-model ensembles from NCEP, CMC, Others

Daily real-time observations

Historical observations, Reanalysis, R

Bias correction of 6-hourly model output with respect to operational analysis.

Quantify systematic differences

between the Operational Analysis

and the Reanalysis, d*=R-O

Adjust all forecasts

by d*

Compare forecasts to the Reanalysis-based

climate PDF

Basic products

  • Fully-automated weighted average 500-hPa 8-14-day mean height and anomaly forecast with spread

End products

Fully-automated T, P tercile probabilities

Automated Dissemination


Forecast tools consolidation anova of ensemble members and gaussian kernel distribution averaging

Forecast tools consolidation: ANOVA of Ensemble members and Gaussian Kernel Distribution Averaging

Temperature (F)


Consolidation improves seasonal temperature outlooks by an average of 26

Consolidation improves seasonal temperature outlooks by an average of 26%


North american 8 14 day forecast t

North American 8-14-day Forecast T

26.7 % chance A,

33.3% chance N,

40 % chance B

40% chance A,

33.3% chance N,

26.7% chance B

33.3 to 30.05% chance A,

33.4 to 39.9% chance N,

33.3 to 30.05% chance B


8 14 day 500 hpa height and anomalies forecast a weighted average of cfs canadian other models

8-14-day 500-hPa height and anomalies forecast – a weighted average of CFS, Canadian, other models


Naefs thor pex

NAEFS & THORpex

Expands international collaboration

Mexico joined in November 2004

UK Met Office to join in 2006

Provides framework for transitioning research into operations

Prototype for ensemble component of THORpex legacy forecast system: Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

RESEARCH

THORpex Interactive Grand

Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

Transfers

New methods

Articulates

operational needs

North American Ensemble

Forecast System (NAEFS)

OPERATIONS


Expansion of naefs

Discussions with other centers for expansion of NAEFS

Experimental status - March 2006

Operational status – 2007-2008

UKMet – Agreement

FNMOC, AFWA – Expert discussions

Need to formalize, use operational centers’ forum (COPC)

Product distribution

Issues

Name change from NAEFS to Global Ensemble Prediction Center

Disc space requirements will grow

Other centers that expressed interest in learning more about NAEFS

ECMWF, NCMRWF, JMA, KMA

Link with THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

THORPEX research organized in 4 science Working Groups

TIGGE data base supports ensemble-related research

NAEFS – GEPS provides

Testing in and transition to operational use

Real time forecast data for demonstration projects

EXPANSION OF NAEFS


Naefs and the north american week 2 forecast

Black : data presently exchanged

Blue : items have been added in prototype script for expanded CMC dataset.

Red : items can be easily added to the expanded dataset via an autoreq for CMC; next implementation period for NCEP

* these will be added within 1 month for CMC

** these will be added within 2 months for CMC

Green: items that require further consideration and resources

LIST OF VARIABLES IDENTIFIED FOR ENSEMBLE EXCHANGE BETWEEN CMC - NCEP

Parameter

CMC

NCEP

Ensemble

8 SEF, 8 GEM

GRID

2.5x2.5 deg, (144x73 lat-lon)

[1.2 X 1.2 (300X151 lat-lon)]

1x1 deg (360x180 lat-lon) for day 1-7

2.5x2.5 deg (144x73 lat-lon) day 8-15

DOMAIN

Global

Global

FORMAT

WMO Grib Format

WMO Grib Format

HOURS

0, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 120, 132, 144, 156, 168, 180, 192, 204, 216, 228, 240

0, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 120, 132, 144, 156, 168, 180, 192, 204, 216, 228, 240, 252, … 384

GZ

[200], 250, 500, 700, 850,[925,1000]

[200], 250, 500, 700, 850 ,[925],1000

TT

[200], 250, 500,700, 850 ,[925,1000]

[200], 250, 500, 700, 850 ,[925],1000

U,V

[200], 250, 500,700, 850 ,[925,1000]

[200], 250, 500, 700, 850 ,[925],1000

TT

12000  Now redefined in grib file to be 2m AGL

2m

U,V

Now redefined in grib file to be 10m AGL

10m

ES

12000  Now redefined in grib file to be 2m AGL

RH at 2m

MSLP

(PN) level 0, i.e. at surface

PRMSL, i.e. at surface

PR

level 0, i.e. at surface

level 0, i.e. at surface

NT

level 0

Total Cloud Cover

IH

level 0

Total Precipitable Water

Sfc Pres

(SEF) (P0) level 0 at surface

Sfc Pressure

Model Topography

Model Topography

Model Topography

CAPE

Sept 2004

June 2004

Precip type

Sept 2004

Precip type

Tmax

June 2004

2m

Tmin

June 2004

2m

WAM

2005-2006

2005-2006

Black : data exchanged in early 2004

Blue : items added to CMC and NCEP production by July 2004

Red : items added to CMC production by October 2004

Green: items in development (CMC) and testing (NCEP) by June 2005


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