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Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market Prices Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference

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Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market Prices Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council May 16, 2008. AURORA xmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs.

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slide1

Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market PricesPacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference

Maury Galbraith

Northwest Power and Conservation Council

May 16, 2008

aurora xmp electric market model configuration and inputs
AURORAxmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs

18 load-resource zones with transmission

Demand forecasts (net conservation)

Existing generating resources

New generating resource options

Natural gas and coal price forecasts

CO2 emission price forecasts

State restrictions on new coal-fired generation

Resource additions needed to achieve state RPS targets

Capacity planning reserve margin targets

April 29, 2008

2

2

aurora xmp electric market model modes and logic
AURORAxmp Electric Market ModelModes and Logic

Capacity Expansion Mode:

Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future demand

Planning Period: 2007 – 2031

Simulation: Every 3rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2nd Week

Hourly Dispatch Mode:

Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices

Planning Period: 2007 – 2026

Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week

April 29, 2008

3

3

base case price comparisons mid c annual average prices
Base Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices

$65

5th Plan Final

$60

Biennial Assessment

$55

$50

Draft Interim Base Case

2006$/MWh

$45

$40

Final Interim Base Case

$35

Interim High Capital Cost

$30

Case

2007

2012

2017

2022

sensitivity case price comparisons mid c annual average prices
Sensitivity Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices

$65

Interim Base Case

$60

Interim High Capital Cost

Case

$55

Interim High CO2 Price

$50

Case

2006$/MWh

$45

High Capital Cost/High

CO2 Price Case

$40

Interim High Fuel Price

Case

$35

Interim No Incremental

$30

RPS Case

2007

2012

2017

2022

April 29, 2008

8

slide9

Impact of Incremental RPS Resource Additions on NW Wholesale Power Market Price(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.)

9

impact of high co 2 prices on nw supply e g interim high capital cost case jan 15 2020 he 7 00 p m
Impact of High CO2 Prices on NW Supply(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.)

April 29, 2008

12

12

interim wholesale power price forecast paper http www nwcouncil org library 2008 2008 05 htm
Interim Wholesale Power Price Forecast Paperhttp://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-05.htm
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