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Community Activities and Plans A.Will (BTU Cottbus) and the CLM-Community COSMO Meeting, Krak ów, 15-19 September 2008. Relevance of Weather Prediction and Climate Change in the Society.

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Relevance of weather prediction and climate change in the society

CommunityActivities and Plans A.Will (BTU Cottbus) and the CLM-CommunityCOSMO Meeting, Kraków, 15-19 September 2008


Relevance of weather prediction and climate change in the society

Relevance of Weather Prediction and Climate Change in the Society

Google: Energy 527 106,Weather 481 106,

Climate 146 106,Climate Change 53 106

Content of Physics Schoolbooks

Classes 7/8 in Germany 2008:

Optics, Mechanics, Elektricity,

Heat, Atom- and Nuclear Physics, Acustics

Additionally:

Human, Energy and Environment

with Renewable Energies, Atmospheric Physics,

temperature, precipitation, relative humidity


Economical relevance of nwp and rcm example current line overload

Economical Relevance of NWP and RCMExample: Current Line Overload

Overload of 110KV current lines in 2007

Meteorological conditions for cooling of current lines assumed now:

0.5 m/s, 293.15 K

Costs in 2007 of not transported electricity from windmills in northern Germany

approx. 30 Mill. E

Prediction of meteorological conditions in nowcasting and for future climate conditions

Reason: extended wind-energy production

in coastal regions and lack of consumers there


Development of the clm community

Development of the CLM-Community

New in 2007/2008:

National Autonomous University of Mexico


Relevance of weather prediction and climate change in the society

>5

new


Relevance of weather prediction and climate change in the society

Cooperations 2008

COSMO Meeting

CLM-Community Assembly

COSMO/CLM

Training and

Seminar

Community

Univ./R.Cent.

NWP-research

Steering Committee

CLM Coordination, Steering group

Data Assimilation

Preprocessing (PPP,PEP, int2lm)

Reference Version

User Support / Technical Aspects

Dynamics and Numerics

Numerical Aspects

PP COLOBOC

Physical Aspects

Soil and Vegetation

WG Chem.&Aeros.

Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation

Verification

Interpretation and Application

Evaluation


Regions of application and transferability studies

Regions of Applicationand Transferability Studies

verschiedene (50km - 3km)

e.g. Polar Lows,CoastDat2

PACES / Laptev See

Downscaling

Experimente

TROPCYC/

Taifune

Panama

Niederschlag

ICTS

RiftLink (FU Berlin)

REGCLIMOSS

ENSEMBLES-AMMA


Fields of activity model development

Fields of Activity:Model Development


Preprocessor pep version 0 5

Preprocessor PEP Version 0.5

Provision of time invariant boundary data:

Topography, vegetation, soils and others

  • Option DWD (operational):

  • Option ECO/DWD

    • monthly resolution of the vegetation parameters + FAO/DWD Soil

  • Option ECOCLIMAP

    • Monthly resolution + FAO/STASGO Soil

Requirements: Fortran Compiler,

NetCDF library, Perl, Perl-NetCDF,

PerlGTK2

9 | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ


Preprocessor pep version 0 51

PGF90

GNU Fortran (Intel, AMD)

GNU Fortran /Mac

Preprocessor PEP Version 0.5

IN DWD Option Makefiles for


Available parameter data in pep

Available parameter datain PEP


Fields of activity analysis of phenomena and components

Fields of Activity:Analysis of Phenomena and Components

Publications 2007/2008

  • September 2008

  • Regional Climate Modelling with

  • COSMO-CLM

  • Special offer 10,- EUR at COSMO meeting

  • Simulation Results with

  • CLM_3 and

  • COSMO-CLM (cosmo_4)

  • summer cold bias (SCB) for COSMO-CLM

SCB found for most configurations and external data. Final report this year.


Fields of activity analysis of phenomena and components1

Fields of Activity:Analysis of Phenomena and Components

Reports 2007/2008

www.clm-community.eu

1. H.-D. Hollweg et al. (MaD, BTU)

Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios

Presentation in December (Cottbus)

13 Variables, 35 Regions, 4x140y

2. Will, Woldt (BTU):

Comparison of COSMO-CLM results with CM-SAF products:

Radiation components ToA and at the Surface

and Cloud Properties

16 Variables, 35 Regions, 2006


Vergleich 1

Vergleich 1:

Fields of Activity:Model Evaluation 1979-1998

Comarison 1: Quality of the regional model


Vergleich 2 20y

Vergleich 2 (20y)

Fields of Activity:Evaluation versus control runs (1979-1998)

Comparison2: Influence of the global model and internal variability


Vergleich 3 20y

Vergleich 3 (20y)

Fields of Activity:ECHAM5 and COSMO model simulations

Camparison 3: global model and the control climate


Vergleich 4 20y

Vergleich 4: (20y)

Fields of Activity:COSMO climate change signal (50y)

Comparison 4: Variability of the climate change signal


Vergleich 5 t 2m klimatologischer jahresgang meu

Vergleich 5: T_2m, Klimatologischer Jahresgang (MEU)

Fields of Activity:Added value of the COSMO model simulation

Comparison 5: Consistencyof the climate change signal and Added Value


Suggestions last slide

Suggestions / Last Slide

The CLM-Community is looking forward to future cooperation with COSMO

Suggestions for future COSMO-CLM projects:

  • Categorisation and self explaining description of the namelist parameters

  • implementation of new developments as additional features with a dedicated time to make own tests.

  • Diagnostic for forecast times from 6h up to the climate state to better understand and fix the occurring problems.

  • List of variables characterising model physics and dynamics by the WGs

  • To shear observations for evaluation and verification for at least one year

  • To exchange mailing lest members

Dziękóję bardzo za cierpliwość ! / Thank you very much for your attention !


Fields of activity climate configuration terra daily forcing

Fields of Activity:Climate Configuration, TERRA, daily forcing

Dz(k+1)=S x Dz(k)

S=3S=2S=1.5S=1.2

Daily Forcing

red: rock

blue: clay

Resolved by

– – 16 points

• • • 8 points

– • – 4 points

– • • 2 points

at the surface

and 1 point if

T=0.1 K


Relevance of weather prediction and climate change in the society

Introduction

Regional Climate and Weather in the media. Schoolbooks

National Economy is strongly affected by local Weather and Climate conditions (wind energy)

Overviews

Development of the CLM-Community

Locations

Members

Working Groups and Projects

Activities

Regions of Simulation , Transferability Studies(Rockel)

Fields of cooperation with COSMO

COSMO/CLM Training and COSMO/CLM Seminar

Homepage

Standard configurations

WG on Chemistry and Aerosols

PP COLOBOC

Education for Weather Services (B.Frueh (DWD), F.Kaspar (DWD), R.Stoeckli (MeteoSwiss)

Regional climate Activities by COSMO-members (DWD, CIRA)

Publications

Special Issue, Meteorol.Z. 4.2008: Regional Climate Modelling with COSMO-CLM

Final Draft of the Report: Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios (Description and Quality)

First Draft of the Report: Comparison of COSMO-CLM results with CM-SAF products: Radiation components ToA and at the Surface and Cloud Properties

Selected Results

Sensitivity of Precipitation to model configuration

Parameterizations: Bachner etal.

Resolution: Feldmann

Evaluation of Radiation Components

Problems Identified

Annual cycle in ΔT_2M (positive in MED and negative in SCA in JJA)

Summer cold bias in COSMO-CLM for many configurations

Too high total cloud cover and near surface RELHUM over land

Model Developments

Version maintenance of

ppp, pep int2lm_clm, and cosmo_clm

Regional Earth System Model

COSMO-CLM – ComLandM (Senev.)

COSMO-CLM – OASIS - Ocean (started)

COSMO-CLM – Chemistry and Aerosols started

Routing scheme

Elbe (PIK)

Mediterranean (IMK-IFU)

Contributions to COSMO-CLM model systemit


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