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Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland

Jacek Kowalewski. STATISTICAL OFFICE IN POZNAŃ. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland. Research program.

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Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland

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  1. Jacek Kowalewski STATISTICAL OFFICE IN POZNAŃ Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland

  2. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Research program • possibilities of using existing administrative registers in short term statistics • assessment of potential usefulness of administrative sources • analysis of ways to decrease response burden for some companies • improvementindata completeness and quality • assessment of the possibilities of exploiting register data for purposes of calibration in the case of incomplete data

  3. DG1 survey

  4. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland DG1 survey • business activity report • the basic source of short-term information about economic activity of businesses • coversonly enterprises withover 9 employees • timeliness – 5th dayaftertheend of eachmonth • sales, taxes and subsidies, turnover, employees, working time • 30 questionsinthesurvey form convertedinto 460 variables • currentprices, constantprices

  5. S ALES of manufacturing output: - total - domestic (of whichgoodsexported - exported to theEurozonecountries) of construction output: - total - by type of work T AXES & SUBSIDIES T - by buidlingtype URNOVER Excise duty: of goods and materials: Turnover: - on goodsproduced for sale - In retail trade T RANSPORT - total - on goods and materials online - - domestic - In wholesale trade Loadcapacity of road transport Specificsubsidies - exported Transport of goods ( • of whichgoodsexported • to theEurozonecountries) Transport of passengers - total - city transport - bus intercity transport . E MPLOYEES Z P workingpersons averagenumber of employees N EW ORDERS New ordersreceived: - total W ORKING TIME - domestic - exported P S time worked RICES ALARIES • of whichordersexported • to theEurozonecountries) of goods and services: Wages and salaries - total Dividend - domestic Social insurance premiums - exported construction work - priceindexes SURVEY SCOPE BY THEMES SURVEY SCOPE

  6. Analysis of theprocessing of the DG-1 survey URZĄD STATYSTYCZNY W POZNANIU 18 594 78 443 18 594 (100%) 13 353 (about 17%) Sample 31 947 10% refusals 14% reminders 25% explanations

  7. Analysis of theprocessing of the DG-1 survey URZĄD STATYSTYCZNY W POZNANIU 18 594 78 443 18 594 (100%) 13 353 (about 17%) sample sections, divisions, classes aggregation generalization

  8. Digital reportingwithinthe DG-1 survey national averagefrom January 2008 to May 2010

  9. The use of data from administrative registers

  10. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Review of the systems • recognition and description of the regulations • comparisonof the scope of data used in the registers with those used by public statistics • comparisonof conceptdefinitions and classifications • studiesintomethodologicalcompatibility • evaluationof the quality of administrative systems to determine their usefulness as data sources for business statistics • specificationof the scope of data to be used

  11. Revenues DG1 survey vsadministrative registers

  12. Distribution of enterprises by revenue, DG-1, 2008 Number of enterprises Revenues

  13. Relationship between the values of accumulated revenue - from DG-1, PIT or CIT register, all units together 2008 PIT, CIT register DG1 survey

  14. Relationship between the values of accumulated revenue - from DG-1, PIT or CIT register, all units together 2008 PIT, CIT register DG1 survey

  15. Usefulness of calibration

  16. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Thestudyprocedure • Transforming administrative data sources into statistical data sets • General population (MEETS) consisting of companies in the DG-1 survey which were successfully matchedwithinformation from the the KEP, CIT, PIT and ZUS databases • Mean revenue was estimated using a calibration estimator with a known vector of the population total of auxiliary variables (the Horvitz-Thompson estimator was used as a benchmark).

  17. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Thestudyprocedure - cntd • Simulation: 5%, 10% and 15% samples were drawn from the MEETS dataset • After obtaining a sample, information about revenue (dependent variable Y) for some enterprises was replaced with missing data • Different approaches were used to generate missing data: random fashion (option 1), missing data were attributed to enterprises with the lowest (option 2) and highest (option 3)revenue • 500 iterationsperformed for each option, the expected value of revenue,the expected value of the bias

  18. Conclusions

  19. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Conclusions • It’shard to obtainadministrativeregisters (system barrier) • The direct use of administrative data in short-term statistics is limited by the overly long time of data processing and a long period of waiting for data to be transferred by their administrators. • Administrative databases can be used as direct data sources for surveys, as a source of information to complete missing data, as a source of data for comparison with information collected in statistical surveys conducted by means of statistical reporting forms • The databases are a rich source of potential auxiliary variables, which can improve the quality of estimations by reducing the negative effect of non-response in statistical reporting.

  20. Possibilities of exploiting administrative data in short term statistics in Poland Conclusions • The use of all available information about selected variables helps toreduce the respondent burden and improve the efficiency of estimators • Use of administrative data in producing business statistics may not completely solve all its problems (highly right-skewed distributions, very high differentiation and high concentration) but itcan significantly contribute to minimizing their negative effects. • Calibrationapproach can improve the quality of short-term estimation • Calibrationcombined with the methodology of small area statistics, can increase the range of estimation methods available in business surveys

  21. To celebratethe 100th anniversary of the Polish Statistical Association http://www.stat.gov.pl/pts/kongres2012

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