Basic forecasting techniques
Download
1 / 10

BASIC forecasting techniques: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 123 Views
  • Uploaded on

BASIC forecasting techniques:. Persistence Modified Persistence Extrapolation Trend Association/ Analogous Methods Answers the million dollar question: “ …. what upstream location …?”. Analogous Thickness Methods. Temperature forecasts Find upstream location where air mass is coming from

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' BASIC forecasting techniques:' - lecea


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Basic forecasting techniques
BASIC forecasting techniques:

  • Persistence

  • Modified Persistence

  • Extrapolation

  • Trend

  • Association/ Analogous Methods

    • Answers the million dollar question:

      “ …. what upstream location …?”


Analogous thickness methods
Analogous Thickness Methods

  • Temperature forecasts

    • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from

    • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!)

    • For daytime max:

      • Compare 00z to 00z, or 18z to 18z

    • For nighttime min:

      • Compare 12z to 12z


Temperature forecasting analogous thickness
Temperature Forecasting:Analogous Thickness

00z Sunday: 9/2/01

00z Saturday: 9/1/01


Analogous thickness
Analogous Thickness

  • Dew Point Forecasting

    • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from

    • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!)


Case example mdt
Case Example: MDT

SEPTEMBER 4, 2001

MDT’s

Dew Point 18z

on Sept. 4th?

70F

MDT’s Dew

Point at 18z

On Sept. 5th?


Mdt analogous thickness
MDT: Analogous Thickness

MDT’s

Thickness?

569dm

MDT’s

SLP?

1019mb

MDT’s location

Relative to Fronts,

Highs or lows?


Mdt dew analogous thickness
MDT DEW: Analogous Thickness

Thickness?

569dm

SLP?

1019mb

MDT’s location

Relative to Fronts,

Highs or lows?


Case example mdt1
Case Example: MDT

SEPTEMBER 4, 2001

Analogous

Dew Point?

53-57F


Case example mdt2
Case Example: MDT

Ladies and

gentlemen

the MDT DEW

is …………


Analogous thickness1
Analogous Thickness

  • Caveats

    • Not all locations with = thick/slp values are the “analogous” site

    • cyclogenesis, anticylcgenisis

    • Consider air mass modification/local effects

      • Snow cover

      • Wind off large body of water

    • Analogous site should be of similar altitude

    • Errors can occur near strong fronts


ad