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Mesoscale model ensemble for MDSS. Paul Schultz NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory March 2001. Purpose of ensemble modeling . Ensemble of model forecasts has been shown to be a better forecast than any single ensemble member (1+1=3!)

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Mesoscale model ensemble for mdss

Mesoscale model ensemble for MDSS

Paul Schultz

NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

March 2001


Purpose of ensemble modeling
Purpose of ensemble modeling

  • Ensemble of model forecasts has been shown to be a better forecast than any single ensemble member (1+1=3!)

    • Demonstrated on global scale (NCEP), “large” regional scale (SAMEX), not yet at “local” scale, but no reason to believe it won’t work

  • Ensemble members can be used to create probabilities for key predictands

    • e.g., t < 32ºF, V>25kt, etc.


The dilemma the research opportunity
The dilemma -- the research opportunity

  • Are computer resources best spent on ensemble modeling, or a single (or few) at maximum resolution?

  • MDSS project can shed some light.

  • FSL’s jet computer lets us do both.


Configuration
Configuration

  • Four 48-hr forecasts per day

    • 12-km grid

  • Two high-resolution MM5 nests

    • 4-km grid

    • centered on SLC, DEN

    • Four 12-hr forecasts per day

  • Benchmarking spreadsheet

Status:


This is the domain for the nine ensemble members the fine mesh nests are outlined in red
This is the domain for the nine ensemble members;the fine-mesh nests are outlined in red


Ensemble products
Ensemble products

  • State variables: t, , rh, etc.

  • Categorical probability of precipitation (PoP), probability of precipitation type (PoPT)

  • Probabilities of key forecast variables


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