Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“. Contents:. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottomup perspective Topdown perspective Environmen tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary. Overview: The Idea Susceptibility Bottomup perspective
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Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“
Contents:
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination)
Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dörthe Krömker
Frank Eierdanz
Adelphi Research, Berlin
Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler
Aike Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Richard Klein, Dr. Lilibeth AcostaMichlik
Sabine Campe Torsten Grothmann
Dr. Frank Biermann
„Security Diagrams“  Team
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Environmental stress
High probabilityof crises
Low probability of crises
No crisesevent
Susceptibility
What are Security Diagrams?
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Advantages of Security Diagrams
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Disadvantages of Security Diagrams
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Agents’ perception & evaluation
Agents actions
Assets or Barriers
Adaptive or not adaptive
Political science
Political Capacity & Willingness
Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility
SUS
Social Stability & Imbalance
Pattern Reproduction
Economic
Economic Susceptibility
DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic
Social Susceptibility
Conception
Exposure
Disaster/Crises
Susceptibility
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Environmental stress
Degreeof being affected
Agents’ perception & evaluation
Agents actions
Assets or Barriers
Adaptive or not adaptive
Political science
Political Capacity & Willingness
Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility
SUS
Social Stability & Imbalance
Pattern Reproduction
Economic
Economic Susceptibility
DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic
Social Susceptibility
Conception
Exposure
Disaster/Crises
Susceptibility
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Environmental stress
Degreeof being affected
Action Theory: “Protection Motivation”
Perception based appraisal process
Values
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Appraisal of Threat
= Motivation
Severity
Probability
Fear/personal concern
External Factors
Action:adaptive or not adaptive
Degree of being affected
Response Efficacy
Coping Appraisal
= Competence
Self Efficacy
Costs/Barriers
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
The Quantitative Model: Action in the Centre
Appraisal of Threat= Motivation
Coping Appraisal= Competence
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Past Experience
Barriers
+
+
Anticipation of Negative Consequences
+
Threatened Values
Agricultural Resources

+
Dependency Ratio
Financial Resources
+

+
Overall Ability
+


“Easy” Actions
e.g. technical solutions
Moderate Actions
“at place”
Actions of Crisis
e.g. migration
Susceptibility from Topdown Perspectives
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Agents’ perception & evaluation
Agents actions
Assets or Barriers
Adaptive or not adaptive
Political science
Political Capacity & Willingness
Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility
SUS
Social Stability & Imbalance
Pattern Reproduction
Economic
Economic Susceptibility
DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic
Social Susceptibility
Conception
Exposure
Disaster/Crises
Susceptibility
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Environmental stress
Degreeof being affected
Political Capacity & Political Willingness
PolSus
Economic Situation & Sector Susceptibility
EcoSus
SocSus
Social Stability &
Social Imbalance
CulSus
Endangerment of Pattern Reproduction
Political Science: “Functional Differentiation of Societies”
Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Stress Factors from the environing system
Degrees of Susceptibility
capacity
willingness
Illustration: The Political Dimension
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Resource Availability (as Tax Revenue)
Relative State Capacity
Action obstacles(as Degrees of Conflict Involvement)
PolSus
Social Intervention (Health Expenditures)
Relative Willingness
Obstacles to Inter. (as Degrees of corruption)
Agents’ perception & evaluation
Agents actions
Assets or Barriers
Adaptive or not adaptive
Political science
Political Capacity & Willingness
Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility
SUS
Social Stability & Imbalance
Pattern Reproduction
Economic
Economic Susceptibility
DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic
Social Susceptibility
Conception
Exposure
Disaster/Crises
Susceptibility
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Environmental stress
Degreeof being affected
Dependency:
1. External debt
2. Net com’l. energy imports
3. Trade balance
Agriculture:
1. Size of agriculture sector
2. Agricultural employees
3. Added value of agr. Workers
Regional
Social Services:
1. Education expenditure
2. Health expenditure
3. Emergency programs
Infrastructure:
1. Hydroelectric power
2. Irrigation
Income:
1. Tax Revenue
2. GDP per capita
3. Income distribution
Local
Health & Education:
1. Number of doctors
2. Immunisations
3. Illiteracy
Demographic:
1. Life expectancy at birth
2. Infant mortality rate
3. Population
Social
Indicators
Economy: Economic and Social Theories
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Economic
Indicators
Legend:
Debt
Trade
Dependency
External Debt
Energy imports
Trade balance
Size agriculture
Labour force
Value added
Agriculture
Regional
Agriculture
Infrastructure
Public investment
Hydroelectric
Irrigation
Infrastructure
Tax Revenue
GDP per capita
Gini coefficient
Local
Income/cap.
Health
Education
Mortality
Life expectancy
population
Income
Education expen.
Health expen.
Social Services
Number of doctors
Immunisations
Illiteracy
Health & Education
Number of doctors
Immunisations
Illiteracy
Demographic
Illustration: The Economic Dimension
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Economic Susceptibility
Economic Growth & Development Theory
Susceptibility
Index
Social Susceptibility
Human Wellbeing & Development Theory
The quantification of water stress – the model WaterGAP
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
water stress
discharge reduction
Annual fresh water withdrawals as % of water resources
Deviation of water availability from long time average
Water availability per capita
Annual groundwater recharge
Percentage of area under stress (WTA > 0,4)
Bernhard Lehner water stress index
Percentage of population under stress
Actual Evapotranspiration
Palmer drought severity index
Standard precipitation index
Used indicators
Indicators of water resources
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Water stress index
?
The Question of Crises Definitions
Working Definition:Crisis: an unstable and crucial time or state of affairs in which decisive change is impending, especially one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome.
In respect to the environment this means that the undesirable outcome is brought on by environmental stress and extraordinary emergency measures to counteract are required.
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Collection of Crises Indicators: Progress up to now
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Experience with drought(Question 1, 2)
Not agrarian resources(Question 13)
Dependency ratio(Question 11)
Likeliness of negative consequences(Question 3)
Appraisal of threat
Appraisal of coping capacity
Agrarian resources(Question 13)
Threatened values(Question 4)
Dependency from agriculture(Question 14)
Dependency from agriculture(Question 14)
Technical measures(Question 5)
Emotions related to drought(Question 8)
Susceptibility
„At place“ measures(Question 5)
The Method: Fuzzy Set Theory
Conceptual model
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Inference (Rulesystem)
Output variable
Fuzzification
Defuzzification
Low
Medium
High
Inference
(Rulesystem)
if … and … then …
Appraisal of threat
Very low
Veryhigh
Low
Medium
High
Susceptibility
Low
Medium
High
Appraisal of coping capacity
Calculation procedure
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Result:
Membership of input value to category
High = 0,0
and
Membership of input value to category
Medium = 0,2
and
Membership of input value to category
Low = 0,8
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Low
Medium
High
Appraisal of threat
0,8
Example:
Input value of
Appraisal of threat = 0,2
0,2
0,2
Example of inference and defuzzyfication
Inference (Rulesystem)
Rule 1:
If threat is low and coping is low then susceptibility is very high.
Susceptibility [very high] = min (threat [Low]; coping [Low]) = min (0,8; 0,6) = 0,6
Rule 2:
If threat is low and coping is medium then susceptibility is high.
Susceptibility [high] = min (threat [low]; coping [medium]) = min (0,8; 0,4) = 0,4
…
Rule 9: …
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Very low
Veryhigh
Appraisal of threat
high = 0,0medium = 0,2 low = 0,8
Low
Medium
High
0,6
0,4
0,8
Appraisal of coping capacity
high = 0,0medium = 0,4 low = 0,6
Susceptibility
= 0,8
Advantages of fuzzy set theory
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Contents:
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Overview
Susceptibility
Bottomup perspective
Topdown perspective
Environmental stress:WaterGAP
Crises
The method:Fuzzy set theory
Summary
Thank you very much!
Questions?