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Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“. Contents:. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary. Overview: The Idea Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective

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slide1

Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“

Contents:

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

  • Overview: The Idea
  • Susceptibility
    • Bottom-up perspective
    • Top-down perspective
  • Environmental Stress: Water GAP
  • Crises
  • The method: Fuzzy set theory
  • Summary
slide2

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination)

Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dörthe Krömker

Frank Eierdanz

Adelphi Research, Berlin

Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler

Aike Müller

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Richard Klein, Dr. Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik

Sabine Campe Torsten Grothmann

Dr. Frank Biermann

„Security Diagrams“ - Team

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide3

Crises event

Environmental stress

High probabilityof crises

Low probability of crises

No crisesevent

Susceptibility

What are Security Diagrams?

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide4

Advantages of Security Diagrams

  • Combine concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis in a single model.
  • Treat the impacts of climate change as the probability of occurrence of an eventè expresses uncertainty.
  • Give compact presentation of large amount of complex historical data.
  • Provide a way to understand the future based on insights from the past.
  • Can be used to generate global maps of “hot spot countries” è frequently at risk.
  • Can be used to generate scenarios of future risk to countries.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide5

Disadvantages of Security Diagrams

  • Cannot substitute for detailed studies of risk and adaptation in different countries or regions.
  • Cannot provide enough information for designing detailed adaptation strategies.
  • Based on concepts (stress, susceptibility and crisis) that are …
  • èpoorly-defined;
  • èdifficult to quantify;
  • èdo not take full advantage of research in the social sciences.
  • In this project, we focus on this last paragraph.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide6

Goal of Project

  • To improve the method of Security Diagrams in order to better understand the relationship between extreme climate events and risks to society …
  • … by improving the definitions of the three inputs to these diagrams:
  • environmental stress
  • susceptibility
  • crisis
  • Focus: Climate-related water shortages.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide7

Expected Results

  • Interdisciplinary Cooperation – Coupling between approaches from the social and natural sciences
  • Further development of the concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility, crisis
  • … and therefore the improvement of the “Security Diagram” method.
  • … and with this improvement, a better understanding of the relationship between extreme climate events and risks to society.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide8

Procedure

  • 1. Select indicators and data protocol according to concepts
  • 2. Collect data from case study regions:
    • Southern Portugal (Adelphi Research)
    • Volga region, Russia (CESR Kassel)
    • Region of India (PIK)
  • 3. Pool data in top-down, bottom-up data base:
    • Top-down – regional “averages”, central statistics
    • Bottom up – population groups, population survey
  • 4. Use fuzzy set theory to quantify …
    • environmental stress
    • susceptibility
    • crisis
  • From 3 perspectives …
    • environmental psychology/sociology
    • political science
    • economic
  • 5. Compare results from different perspectives; generate new security diagrams

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide9

Fuzzy set theory …

  • … is a mathematical tool to quantify uncertain, fuzzy inputs.
  • … starts with a theory based conceptual model that identifies
    • influence factors and
    • relationships between these factors (inference).
  • … can be used to compare different perspectives and different indicators with one methodology.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide10

Environmental psychology

Agents’ perception & evaluation

Agents actions

Assets or Barriers

Adaptive or not adaptive

Political science

Political Capacity & Willingness

Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility

SUS

Social Stability & Imbalance

Pattern Reproduction

Economic

Economic Susceptibility

DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic

Social Susceptibility

Conception

Exposure

Disaster/Crises

Susceptibility

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Environ-mental stress

Degreeof being affected

slide11

Environmental psychology

Agents’ perception & evaluation

Agents actions

Assets or Barriers

Adaptive or not adaptive

Political science

Political Capacity & Willingness

Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility

SUS

Social Stability & Imbalance

Pattern Reproduction

Economic

Economic Susceptibility

DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic

Social Susceptibility

Conception

Exposure

Disaster/Crises

Susceptibility

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Environ-mental stress

Degreeof being affected

slide12

Action Theory: “Protection Motivation”

Perception based appraisal process

Values

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Appraisal of Threat

= Motivation

Severity

Probability

Fear/personal concern

External Factors

Action:adaptive or not adaptive

Degree of being affected

Response Efficacy

Coping Appraisal

= Competence

Self Efficacy

Costs/Barriers

slide13

Procedure

  • Explorative questionnaires, partly qualitative/quantitative:
    • Threat appraisal: Threatened values, consequences, past experiences
    • Coping appraisal: Barriers, resources, possible actions
    • Sociodemographic factors: Dependency ratio, dependency from agricultural sector
  • Questionnaire development and pre-tests in cooperation with local partners
  • Survey with 52 households (rural and urban), 17 experts
  • Quantitative model: structural equation analysis
  • Fuzzy system for calculation of “susceptibility”

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide14

The Quantitative Model: Action in the Centre

Appraisal of Threat= Motivation

Coping Appraisal= Competence

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Past Experience

Barriers

+

+

Anticipation of Negative Consequences

+

Threatened Values

Agricultural Resources

-

+

Dependency Ratio

Financial Resources

+

-

+

Overall Ability

+

-

-

“Easy” Actions

e.g. technical solutions

Moderate Actions

“at place”

Actions of Crisis

e.g. migration

slide15

Susceptibility from Top-down Perspectives

  • Regional Susceptibility is assessed from a
  • - political science perspective and an
  • - economic perspective
  • Step: Development of a conceptual model (Theory, Assumptions, Hypotheses, Operationalization)
  • Step: Data collection in cooperation with local partners
  • Step: Data Analysis and Fuzzy Set Application
  • Step: Discussion of preliminary results with the project group
  • Refining of the models and second Data Analysis

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide16

Environmental psychology

Agents’ perception & evaluation

Agents actions

Assets or Barriers

Adaptive or not adaptive

Political science

Political Capacity & Willingness

Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility

SUS

Social Stability & Imbalance

Pattern Reproduction

Economic

Economic Susceptibility

DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic

Social Susceptibility

Conception

Exposure

Disaster/Crises

Susceptibility

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Environ-mental stress

Degreeof being affected

slide17

Political Capacity & Political Willingness

PolSus

Economic Situation & Sector Susceptibility

EcoSus

SocSus

Social Stability &

Social Imbalance

CulSus

Endangerment of Pattern Reproduction

Political Science: “Functional Differentiation of Societies”

Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Stress Factors from the environing system

Degrees of Susceptibility

slide18

Database: I Poldim

capacity

willingness

Illustration: The Political Dimension

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Resource Availability (as Tax Revenue)

Relative State Capacity

Action obstacles(as Degrees of Conflict Involvement)

PolSus

Social Intervention (Health Expenditures)

Relative Willingness

Obstacles to Inter. (as Degrees of corruption)

slide19

Environmental psychology

Agents’ perception & evaluation

Agents actions

Assets or Barriers

Adaptive or not adaptive

Political science

Political Capacity & Willingness

Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility

SUS

Social Stability & Imbalance

Pattern Reproduction

Economic

Economic Susceptibility

DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic

Social Susceptibility

Conception

Exposure

Disaster/Crises

Susceptibility

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Environ-mental stress

Degreeof being affected

slide20

National

Dependency:

1. External debt

2. Net com’l. energy imports

3. Trade balance

Agriculture:

1. Size of agriculture sector

2. Agricultural employees

3. Added value of agr. Workers

Regional

Social Services:

1. Education expenditure

2. Health expenditure

3. Emergency programs

Infrastructure:

1. Hydroelectric power

2. Irrigation

Income:

1. Tax Revenue

2. GDP per capita

3. Income distribution

Local

Health & Education:

1. Number of doctors

2. Immunisations

3. Illiteracy

Demographic:

1. Life expectancy at birth

2. Infant mortality rate

3. Population

Social

Indicators

Economy: Economic and Social Theories

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Economic

Indicators

Legend:

slide21

National

Debt

Trade

Dependency

External Debt

Energy imports

Trade balance

Size agriculture

Labour force

Value added

Agriculture

Regional

Agriculture

Infrastructure

Public investment

Hydroelectric

Irrigation

Infrastructure

Tax Revenue

GDP per capita

Gini coefficient

Local

Income/cap.

Health

Education

Mortality

Life expectancy

population

Income

Education expen.

Health expen.

Social Services

Number of doctors

Immunisations

Illiteracy

Health & Education

Number of doctors

Immunisations

Illiteracy

Demographic

Illustration: The Economic Dimension

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Economic Susceptibility

Economic Growth & Development Theory

Susceptibility

Index

Social Susceptibility

Human Well-being & Development Theory

slide22

The quantification of water stress – the model WaterGAP

  • WaterGAP is …
  • a global water use and availability model,
  • that computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge,
  • at a spatial resolution of 0.5°.
  • WaterGAP is …
  • based on the best global data sets currently available and
  • calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations which represent about 50% of the global land area.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide23

Model overview

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

  • Global Hydrology Model
  • water availability
  • surface runoff
  • groundwater recharge
  • river discharge
  • climate
  • drainage direction
  • land cover
  • slope
  • hydrogeology
  • permafrost

water stress

discharge reduction

  • Global Water Use Model
  • withdrawal and consumptivewater use
  • irrigation, livestock, domestic, industry
  • climate
  • irrigates areas
  • livestock
  • population
  • national estimates of domestic and industrial use
slide24

Annual fresh water withdrawals as % of water resources

Deviation of water availability from long time average

Water availability per capita

Annual groundwater recharge

Percentage of area under stress (WTA > 0,4)

Bernhard Lehner water stress index

Percentage of population under stress

Actual Evapotranspiration

Palmer drought severity index

Standard precipitation index

Used indicators

Indicators of water resources

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

  • selection of best
  • addition
  • maximum of all
  • statistical approach
  • fuzzy set theory

Water stress index

?

slide25

The Question of Crises Definitions

Working Definition:Crisis: an unstable and crucial time or state of affairs in which decisive change is impending, especially one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome.

In respect to the environment this means that the undesirable outcome is brought on by environmental stress and extraordinary emergency measures to counteract are required.

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide26

Collection of Crises Indicators: Progress up to now

  • Sources for a quantification :
  • Global databases (EM-DAT)
  • Insights from the bottom up questionnaires
  • Insights from Emergency Plans
  • Media Analysis
  • Identification of alternative sources:
    • - Contact to local authorities, companies
    • - Identification of specific deviations of a long-term trend (crop yield, unemployment)

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide27

Barriers(Question 6)

Experience with drought(Question 1, 2)

Not agrarian resources(Question 13)

Dependency ratio(Question 11)

Likeliness of negative consequences(Question 3)

Appraisal of threat

Appraisal of coping capacity

Agrarian resources(Question 13)

Threatened values(Question 4)

Dependency from agriculture(Question 14)

Dependency from agriculture(Question 14)

Technical measures(Question 5)

Emotions related to drought(Question 8)

Suscep-tibility

„At place“ measures(Question 5)

The Method: Fuzzy Set Theory

Conceptual model

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide28

Input variables

Inference (Rulesystem)

Output variable

Fuzzification

Defuzzification

Low

Medium

High

Inference

(Rule-system)

if … and … then …

Appraisal of threat

Very low

Veryhigh

Low

Medium

High

Suscep-tibility

Low

Medium

High

Appraisal of coping capacity

Calculation procedure

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide29

Example of fuzzyfication

Result:

Membership of input value to category

High = 0,0

and

Membership of input value to category

Medium = 0,2

and

Membership of input value to category

Low = 0,8

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Low

Medium

High

Appraisal of threat

0,8

Example:

Input value of

Appraisal of threat = 0,2

0,2

0,2

slide30

Example of inference and defuzzyfication

Inference (Rulesystem)

Rule 1:

If threat is low and coping is low then susceptibility is very high.

Susceptibility [very high] = min (threat [Low]; coping [Low]) = min (0,8; 0,6) = 0,6

Rule 2:

If threat is low and coping is medium then susceptibility is high.

Susceptibility [high] = min (threat [low]; coping [medium]) = min (0,8; 0,4) = 0,4

Rule 9: …

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Very low

Veryhigh

Appraisal of threat

high = 0,0medium = 0,2 low = 0,8

Low

Medium

High

0,6

0,4

0,8

Appraisal of coping capacity

high = 0,0medium = 0,4 low = 0,6

Susceptibility

= 0,8

slide31

Advantages of fuzzy set theory

  • Theory based procedure
  • Unique result of uncertain, fuzzy input
  • No subjective thresholds
  • Use of indicators of different types and scale

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

  • Disadvantages of fuzzy set theory
  • Difficult to describe and reproduce
  • Subjectivity
  • Complexity when using many variables
slide32

Summary

  • Select indicators and data protocol according to concepts
  • Collect data from case study regions:
    • - Southern Portugal (Adelphi Research)
    • - Volga region, Russia (CESR Kassel)
    • - Region of India (PIK)
  • 3. Pool data in top-down, bottom-up data base:
    • - Top-down – regional “averages”, central statistics
    • - Bottom up – population groups, population survey
  • 4. Use fuzzy set theory to quantify …
    • - environmental stress
    • - susceptibility
    • - crisis
  • From 3 perspectives …
    • - environmental psychology/sociology
    • - political science
    • - economic
  • 5. Compare results from different perspectives; generate new security diagrams

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

slide33

Contents:

Overview

Susceptibility

Bottom-up perspective

Top-down perspective

Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP

Crises

The method:Fuzzy set theory

Summary

Thank you very much!

Questions?

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