Kirk Akaydin Week 1: January 18 th , 2007

1. Kirk AkaydinWeek 1: January 18th, 2007 Project ManagerCost/Schedule/Risk Analysis This Week: Cost Modeling

2. Costing the Mission Architecture Method 1 Method 2 • Assumptions • Launch Cost: $10K / kg (Smith 1/17/2007) • Total Cost = 2*(Launch Cost) • Overestimate Mass • IMLEO = 20,000 mt • ~ 170 Ares V payload capacity • Architecture Cost: $400 Billion • Underestimate Mass • IMLEO = 5,000 mt • ~ 45 Ares V payload capacity • Architecture Cost: $100 Billion • NASA AMCM equation (Larson 943-947) • Input: 6 architecture parameters • Output: Total program cost • Overestimate Mass • IMLEO = 20,000 mt • ~ 170 Ares V payload capacity • Architecture Cost: $550 Billion • Underestimate Mass • IMLEO = 5,000 mt • ~ 45 Ares V payload capacity • Architecture Cost: $220 Billion

3. Costing Conclusions • Project Cost Goal • Architecture Cost: < $200 Billion (2007) • Cost Drivers • Mass injected to LEO • Technology Readiness Level • Cost Constraints • NASA yearly budget • Low Risk

4. References • 1. Boeing Company: Space Division. Studies of Improved Saturn V Vehicles and Intermediate Payload Vehicles. <http://www.astronautix.com/data/satvint.pdf> Jan 17, 2007 • 2. Larson, Wiley J and Pranke, Linda K. Human Spaceflight: Mission Analysis and Design. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.; New York, 2000 • 3. Longuski, James. Advice to Rocket Scientists: A Career Survival Guide for Scientists and Engineers. AIAA; Reston, Virginia, 2004 • 4. Smith, Arthur. “The Case For Space Based Solar Power Development”. <http://www.spacedaily.com/news/ssp-03b.html> Jan 17, 2007 • 5. Zubrin, Robert and Wgner, Richard. The Case For Mars. Simon and Schuster Inc.; New York,1996

5. AMCM equation description • Q: quantity • M: mass • S: specification (mission type parameter) • IOC: first year of operations • B: Block (level of design inheritance) • D: Difficulty (-2.5 <-> 2.5)

7. Sample Hardware Inventory(see paper copy for larger version)

8. Sample Hardware Breakdown