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Indonesia’s current account challenge. Part 1 – The current economic environment. Richard Dutu Economist, Indonesia Desk OECD Economic Department. The current economic environment. GDP growth, 2002-2013. GDP growth has been trending down recently. Average GDP per capita growth, 2002-2012.

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indonesia s current account challenge

Indonesia’s current account challenge

Part 1 – The current economic environment

Richard Dutu

Economist, Indonesia DeskOECD Economic Department

gdp growth 2002 2013
GDP growth, 2002-2013

GDP growth has been trending down recently.

average gdp per capita growth 2002 2012
Average GDP per capita growth, 2002-2012

Yet Indonesia remains well placed regarding recent GDP/capita growth.

contributions to gdp growth 2002 2012
Contributions to GDP growth, 2002-2012

Growth is supported by consumption as both investment and export growth have slowed.

commodity prices
Commodity prices

Metal price index

Thermal coal prices

Export growth is down due to lower commodity prices.

major trading partners
Major trading partners

Indonesia exports to the entire world, but China and Japan account for 27%.

credit to the economy
Credit to the economy

Credit growth is strong and steady.

government fiscal balance 1990 2013
Government fiscal balance, 1990-2013

The fiscal balance remains sustainable.

government debt of gdp of selected countries
Government debt, % of GDP of selected countries

As is Indonesia’s government debt.

inflation 2010 2014
Inflation, 2010-2014

Inflation is edging up, pushed by food prices.

inflation decomposition 2010 2014
Inflation decomposition, 2010-2014

Although transportation, communication and finance have contributed recently.

exchange rate and international reserves 2007 2014
Exchange rate and international reserves, 2007-2014

The rupiah has depreciated dramatically in recent months.

interest rates 2007 2014
Interest rates, 2007-2014

And Bank Indonesia has had to raise rates.

change in 10 year bonds yield
Change in 10-year bonds yield

Indonesia’s yields have gone significantly higher than its neighbours.

equity prices 2007 2014
Equity prices, 2007-2014

Equities have underperformed in the region recently.

foreign capital flows in rupiah portfolio 2011 2013
Foreign capital flows in Rupiah portfolio, 2011-2013

Source: Bloomberg

After recovering, capital inflows slowed in November.