Erina Gyoba International Research Institution of Disaster Sciences, Tohoku-University

1. Subjective Estimation of Risks and Assessment of the Information Included in the Tsunami Warning System by Students in Universities Located Inside and Outside Regions Damaged by the 2011 off Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake in Japan ErinaGyoba International Research Institution of Disaster Sciences, Tohoku-University

2. - Introduction - Before and at the time of the 2011 off Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake occurrence, information about tsunami heights was released in quantitative values The JMA reviewed and found that these quantitative values were insufficient in urging people to evacuate, since actual tsunami heights greatly exceeded the forecasted heights during the 2011 Earthquake.

3. ―New Version of Tsunami Warning Systemー On March 7, 2013, the JMA released a new version of the tsunami warning system that emphasizes “immediate evacuation” and employs three types of qualitative expressions to describe tsunami heights:

4. ―Backgroundー Information about a disaster should be delivered in a way that allows people to take precise action to reduce and to avoid possible damages(Katada& Kanai 2009; Gyoba & Muramoto 2013). Young people have difficulty perceiving unusual situations and taking precise actions in emergency situations, although they may know of the disaster(Student Life Department of Waseda University 2011) University students do not have as many opportunities to participate in disaster prevention drills and are not particularly interested in disaster information, even if they have general knowledge of the disaster (Oki 2012) Such tendency is stronger among university students who have not experienced severe disasters or have not had lessons in disaster prevention. Such activities are needed to improve disaster prevention education, including proper dissemination of information provided by public institutions, such as the JMA, broadcasting organizations, and so on.

5. ―Goal of This Researchー Experiences with and exposure to disaster information largely differed among University Located Inside and Outside of Damaged area, thus the measure to utilize and supply disaster information each other(Gyoba, 2012). The present study aimed to investigate subjective risk estimation for qualitative descriptions in the JMA’s new tsunami warning between university students located inside (Tohoku) and outside (Kyushu) the areas damaged by the 2011 off Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake.

6. ―Location of Universitiesー Epicenter of the March 11 2011 Earthquake Tohoku Area Fukuoka City (KU University is here) Sendai City (TU and TFU University are here) Kyushu Area

7. ーMethodー Contents of Questionnaire

8. ―Examples of Questionsー • (Question 1 • Please describe your estimation of the tsunami’s height when you received the “Huge tsunami” warning information. ( )m〜( )m • 〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜 • Question 2 • Which of the previous version (A) and the new version (B) shown in the attached document is more effective to allow people’s appropriate actions? Select one corresponds to your answer from the choices below. • a.A(Previous) Versionb. B(New) Version c. Not effective either d. No idea • 〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜 • Question 3 • What points are effective or needed to improve in the new version (B) do you think? Please describe in the square below.

9. ―Attached documentー

10. ― Results ― Figure 1: Subjectively estimated minimum and maximum tsunami heights given by the students in Tohoku and Kyushu area when informed of a “huge” tsunami. Minimum tsunami height (t= 1.23, df=350, p=0.1) Maximum tsunami height (t=1.94, df=296, p=0.03)

11. ― Results ― Figure 2: Subjectively estimated minimum and maximum tsunami heights given by the students in Tohoku and Kyushu area students when informed of a “high” tsunami. Minimum tsunami height (t= 1.40, df=340, p=0.07) Maximum tsunami height (t=1.90, df=325, p=0.03)

12. ― Results ― Figure 3: Subjectively estimated minimum and maximum tsunami heights given by the students in Tohoku and Kyushu area when informed of a “Major Tsunami Warning.” Maximum tsunami height (t = 1.34, df=298, p=0.09)

13. ― Results ― Figure 4: Subjectively estimated minimum and maximum tsunami heights given by the students in Tohoku and Kyushu area when informed of a “Tsunami Warning” Minimum tsunami height (t= 2.72, df=343, p = 0.003) Maximum tsunami height (t=3.29, df = 329, p = 0.0006)

14. ―Results－ Figure 5: Subjectively estimated minimum and maximum tsunami heights given by the students in Tohoku and Kyushu area when informed of a “Tsunami Advisory” Minimum tsunami height (t= 2.17, df=328, p = 0.02) Maximum tsunami height (t =3.54, df = 348, p = 0.0002)

15. ―Results－ Figure 6:Distribution of answers evaluating the previous and new tsunami warning systems. (χ2 = 0.24, df= 3, n.s.)

16. ―Categories of advantages of and ways to improve for the new tsunami warning systemー The category “others” includes various answers given by dozens of students in each group.

17. ―Results－ Figure 7. Percentage distributions of the advantages of the new tsunami warning system. (χ2=3.01, df= 4, n.s.)

18. ―Results－ Figure 8. Percentage distributions of the disadvantageous points of the new tsunami warning system.

19. ―Discussionー University students of Tohoku • They tended to have lower estimates of tsunami heights than students in the Kyushu area when they received the qualitative expressions. • They assessed the new qualitative version of the tsunami warning system as more effective than the previous quantitative version • They tend to avoid relying solely on the numerical value warnings because they have learned that the disaster is often severer than predicted in the previous version through university disaster prevention education, local media, which broadcasted actual situations of the damaged areas, or their own actual experiences. • They suggested that the new tsunami warning is not a permanent solution since the new tsunami warning system mentions information on the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake as a headline example.

20. ―Discussionー University students of Kyushu • They tended to estimate tsunami heights more excessively, especially when they were informed of a “huge” tsunami • They assessed the new qualitative version of the tsunami warning as more effective than the previous quantitative one. • Several students pointed out that the information about the means to evacuate and refuge facilities should be included in the new tsunami warning. • They might not be able to visualize the exact height of tsunami inducing severe damages, since they have not yet had first-hand experience with such disasters. • They might regard qualitative expressions such as “huge” or “high” to prompt people to evacuate from unknown disasters. • They tended to require more concrete and precise information for appropriate evacuation procedures from public institutions, including the JMA.

21. ーConclusionー • The present study revealed the gaps in estimating risks from disaster information between people living inside and outside the damaged areas. • Bridging the gaps requires more than fundamental knowledge about disaster information and warning systems provided by public institutions. • It also requires vital connections between young people who have disaster experience and those without, especially for university students who have not yet formed tight connections with local communities. Further investigations should include a survey not only of university students but also of the elderly, children, and people living in regions with a history of frequent disasters or high risk of future incidents.

22. ーReferences and Acknowledgementsー References • Gyoba, E., & Muramoto, T. (2013). Analyses of the comprehension and recognition of the instructions in educational material for disaster prevention using an assessment model based on cognitive and motivational factors. International Journal for Cross-Disciplinary Subjects in Education, 5 (1), 1099-1107. Basildon: Infonomics Society. • Japan Meteorological Agency (2013). About renewed tsunami warning system (in Japanese), Official Website of Japan Meteorological Agency, http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/tsunami_keihou_kaizen/ index.html (Reference Date: Dec 13, 2013). Tokyo: Japan Meteorological Agency. • Katada, T., & Kanai, M. (2009). Fundamental research about social technology that concerned safety and relief in the actual condition of prevention for tsunami disaster information (in Japanese). Journal of Japan Society for Disaster Information Studies, 7, 37-42. Tokyo: Japan Society for Disaster Information Studies. • Oki, S. (2012). Estimating probability of huge earthquake occurrence and its damage do not lead to enhancement of potential for disaster prevention (in Japanese), Article from Nihon-Keizai News, http://www.nikkei.com/ article/DGXNZO47420990Z11C12A0CR8000/ (Reference Date: Nov 18, 2013), Tokyo: Sankei Shimbun Co., Ltd. • Student Life Department of Waseda University (2011). Consciousness for Great East Japan Earthquake 2011 (in Japanese), Waseda Weekly Special Edition (published July 21, 2011), Tokyo: Waseda University. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a JSPS postdoctoral fellowship (244610) to ErinaGyoba. The author thanks Prof. T. Muramoto, Prof. F. Imamura, Prof. Y. Hakoda, Associated Prof. Y. Sakaki, and Dr. H. Shibata for their generous support.