VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ?

2. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ?

3. WHAT IS SECURITY? FUNCTIONING STAGNATION or CHOKE STABLE SUSTAINABLE SAFE ORDERLY DYNAMIC EVOLVING RISKING FREE EXPLOSION or BURNOUT ARLANDA YIN YANG VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS

4. SOCIAL WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS? FUNCTIONAL HIGH POLITICS POWER DECISIONS HUMAN SECURITY SOCIAL BASE ECOLOGICAL FLOW SECURITY ECONOMIC BASE TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSECURITY HABITAT

5. 0.1 % 14 % 5 % 10 % 5 % 65 % WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING EXXON-MOBIL WALMART IBM CITIGROUP IKEA GLOBALISING COMMUNITY USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG SWEDEN ITALY TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 20%) ESTONIA HUNGARY BRAZIL MODERN STATES THAILAND EGYPT, JORDAN (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RUSSIA SYRIA, VENEZUELA NORTH KOREA PREMODERN SOCIETIES PREMODERN SOCIETIES ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE

6. 0.1 % GLOBALISERS 14 % COOPERATION 5 % CHALLENGE COLLISION 10 % DISEASE SOCIAL ENGINEERING ’9.11’.2001 - ? TERROR 5 % REGIONAL CONFLICT REFUGEES PREMODERN SOCIETIES MIGRATION IMPLOSION CRIME WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING EXXON-MOBIL WALMART IBM CITIGROUP IKEA GLOBALISING COMMUNITY USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG SWEDEN ITALY TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 20%) ESTONIA HUNGARY BRAZIL MODERN STATES THAILAND EGYPT, JORDAN (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RUSSIA SYRIA, VENEZUELA NORTH KOREA 2014 PREMODERN SOCIETIES ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE 65 %

7. 0.1 % 14 % 5 % 10 % 5 % ZONE OF REVOLUTION 65 % WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING POWER POLITICS EXXON-MOBIL WALMART IBM CITIGROUP IKEA GLOBALISING COMMUNITY OLD POWERS POLITICAL EXTREMISM SOCIAL PROBLEMS DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG SWEDEN ITALY TAIWAN DECLINE SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 20%) ESTONIA HUNGARY BRAZIL BIG POWERS CORRUPTION CYBERPENETRATION ECONOMIC POWER MILITARY FORCE MODERN STATES THAILAND EGYPT, JORDAN (CHINA, INDIA 40%) TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS MIGRATION ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS RUSSIA SYRIA, VENEZUELA NORTH KOREA PREMODERN SOCIETIES PREMODERN SOCIETIES ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE

8. SOCIAL WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS? FUNCTIONAL HIGH POLITICS POWER DECISIONS HUMAN SECURITY SOCIAL BASE ECOLOGICAL FLOW SECURITY ECONOMIC BASE TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSECURITY HABITAT

9. TRANSNATIONAL NOKIA 1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES 31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES 18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES

10. TRANSNATIONAL NOKIA 1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES 31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES 18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES 160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS

11. BLUE FLOWS BLUE FLOWS - ECONOMIC - TECHNOLOGICAL 1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES 31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES 18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES 160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS

12. DIRECT • POLITICAL • CHALLENGE • Terrorism • - Rogue States • FRICTION • - Piracy • Crime • Corruption REGIONAL INSTABILITY SECURITY OF SUPPLY OIL PRICES SYSTEMIC SABOTAGE PANDEMIC ATLANTIC ECONOMIC CRISIS PRC ECONOMIC CRISIS TECHNICAL BREAK FLOWS THREATS DESIGN (Y2K) MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT (2008-09) PANDEMIC EARTHQUAKE VOLCANOES STORMS SOLAR STORMS SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY

13. VART ÄR VI PÅ VÄG ?

14. 40% MISERABLE SINK DEEPER ENTRENCHED ALIENATED 20% RICH GET POORER 20% POOR STAGNATE FADING ’WEST’ RISING ’EAST’ 20% POOR GET RICHER DESIGN MANAGEMENT ANTAGONISTIC DEGRADATION DISRUPTION DEPLETION MORE CONNECTED MORE POWER DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 RETURN OF GRAND POLITICS MORE TRANSNATIONAL STRESSES CRIME MISCHIEF MORE VULNERABLE GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS INTEGRATED ELITES POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR? POWER DECISIONS ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION SATISFIED SOCIETIES SOCIAL BASE INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER COMPETITION SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure DEPRESSION OR COLLAPSE ECONOMIC BASE ? TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE SOCIAL TURBULENCE NEW ACTORS HABITAT GREATER TECHNOLOGY MORE MONEY SCARCITY TURBULENCE

15. DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 BARRIER OPS ECOPROTECTION FLOW SECURITY POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE ECONOMIC BASE TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES HABITAT POWER POLITICS

16. DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 FLOW WAR ANTAGONISTIC CRIME MISCHIEF DESIGN MANAGEMENT AUSTERITY TURBULENCE DISRUPTION - Storms, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE ECONOMIC BASE TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES MISTAKES PANDEMIC MEGA SABOTAGE HABITAT

17. HUR HANTERA HOTEN ? 1. BREDA 2. KOMPLEXA 3. OFÖRUTSEBARA

18. - One Dot EXTERNAL HARMONY POLITICAL YESTERDAYS SECURITY HORIZON 3. INCREASED UNPREDICTABILITY YESTERDAY – One Dimension

19. - Six Dots - Ten Flashpoints - ALL INTERACTING EXTERNAL TENSIONS DELIBERATE ATTACK EXTERNAL HARMONY ECONOMIC BASE INHERENT STRAIN POLITICAL FUNCTIONAL CONCLUSION THREE FORECASTING + PLANNING INSUFFICIENT FAST INFECTIOUS SYNTHETIC LETHAL VASTLY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DOMESTIC HARMONY TECHNOL BASE DISASTER (unnatural) DOMESTIC TENSIONS ECOSTRESS ECOSTRESS ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTION DEPLETION DEGRADATION TODAY’S SECURITY HORIZON THREE DIMENSIONS

20. THREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY SEVERITY EXISTENCE VITAL COMFORT MORAL LIKELIHOOD REMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING

21. THREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY SEVERITY EXISTENCE VITAL COMFORT MORAL LIKELIHOOD REMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING

22. PRACTICAL CONSEQUENCES visibility PLAN AND MANIPULATE SHIELD: DETER, DEFEND TRANSFORM: NEUTRALISE, CONVERT KNOWN THREATS FORECAST + COUNTER DARWIN AGILITY SPEED, FLEXIBILITY SURPRISING THREATS REACT + DODGE RESILIENCE ELASTIC, ROBUST, REPAIRING UNKNOWN THREATS SURVIVE + RECOVER

24. NEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES ABILITY TO MANIPULATE MATTER TECHNOLOGICAL WAVES INFORMATION INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE GATHER-HUNT … 8000 BC 1700 2000 TIME TRANSFORM HUMAN CONDITION Alvin Toffler: “The Third Wave.” Thomas Kuhn: “Structure of Scientific Revolutions.” Schumpeter (wavelets of industrial age)

25. GLOBALISATION - DEEP IMPLICATIONS MODERN ERA GLOBALISED AGE SHRINKING WORLD UNLIMITED, STRONG ECOLOGY FINITE, WEAK D + D + D HUGE HUMAN SMALL INTIMATE CONTACT TIME SLOW FAST NARROW BOTTOM UP TAGS + GRIDS PERVASIVE+INTRUSIVE PRIVACY BROAD - TOP DOWN - LISTS + GATES LIQUID WORLD STATE CENTRED GLOBAL TRANSNATIONAL ECONOMY ROOTED FLOATING SOCIETIES CONCENTRATED DISPERSED INTERNET INFORMATION SEGMENTED m-f 9-5 CONTINUOUS 24/7 TIME STATE + LOCAL PRIVATE + GLOBAL TECHN. INFR. STATE + STATE + STATE STATE + NEW ACTORS POWER

26. GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA MODERN ERA GLOBALISED AGE HORISONTAL PEER COMPETITION VERTICAL ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES BROADER THREATS ONE-DIMENSIONAL - PEER POLITICS THREE-DIMENSIONAL - ASYMMETRIC POLITICS - NEW VULNERABILITIES - ECONOMIC BASE - TECHNOLOGICAL BASE - RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS

27. GNP pc ppp 000 USD DAIMLER-BENZ NOKIA GLOBALISED ELITE <1 % 30 USA SWITZ, NORWAY JAPAN HONG KONG FINLAND ITALY TAIWAN SPAIN NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA CHINA, INDIA 10% BRAZIL FLOW WORLD 25 RICH GLOBALISING 14 % 947.3 20 15 RUSSIA BELARUS IRAN CHINA, INDIA 10% LATE MODERN (RTE) 5 % 233.7 10 ZONE OF REVOLUTION ECUADOR VENEZUELA LIBYA, EGYPT, SYRIA CHINA, INDIA 80% EARLY MODERN 15 % 891.0 05 ANGOLA LAOS CONGO RWANDA PREMODERN 32 % 1,925.2 ZONE OF CRIPPLING MISERY 01 34 % 2,066.2 GLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION POWER POLITICS OLD POWERS POLITICAL EXTREMISM SOCIAL PROBLEMS DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE BIG POWERS CORRUPTION CYBERPENETRATION ECONOMIC POWER MILITARY FORCE TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS MIGRATION ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS

28. GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL TRENDS 2012 DEPARTING ? ACTIVATING GLOBAL ECOCRISIS SCARCITY TURBULENCE RISING GROWING GROWING GROWING DECLINE GOOD DETERIORATING COMPLICATING DANGEROUS UNSTABLE DISASTER

29. 1949 - 2012 LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949 KEEP RUSSIA OUT, UNITED STATES IN, AND GERMANY DOWN SITUATION TODAY US GOING OUT, RUSSIA GOING UP, AND EUROPE DOWN

30. GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA MODERN ERA GLOBALISED AGE NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES HORISONTAL PEER COMPETITION VERTICAL ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS BROADER THREATS ONE-DIMENSIONAL - PEER POLITICS THREE-DIMENSIONAL - ASYMMETRIC POLITICS - NEW VULNERABILITIES - ECONOMIC BASE - TECHNOLOGICAL BASE - RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS

31. MORE CONNECTED MORE POWER DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 RETURN OF GRAND POLITICS MORE TRANSNATIONAL STRESSES INTERSTATE WAR MORE VULNERABLE POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER COMPETITION SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure DEPRESSION OR COLLAPSE ECONOMIC BASE ? TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE SOCIAL TURBULENCE HABITAT GREATER TECHNOLOGY MORE MONEY SCARCITY TURBULENCE

32. 40% MISERABLE SINK DEEPER ENTRENCHED ALIENATED 20% RICH GET POORER 20% POOR STAGNATE FADING ’WEST’ RISING ’EAST’ 20% POOR GET RICHER DESIGN MANAGEMENT ANTAGONISTIC DEGRADATION DISRUPTION DEPLETION MORE CONNECTED MORE POWER RESURGING GLOBAL POWER POLITICS POWERFUL TOOLS (ECON – S&T DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE DEEPENING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS BARRIER OPS ECOPROTECTION RETURN OF GRAND POLITICS BUT VULNERABLE MORE TRANSNATIONAL STRESSES FLOW SECURITY CRIME MISCHIEF MORE VULNERABLE POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE ECONOMIC BASE TECHNOL BASE NATURAL RESOURCES SOCIAL TURBULENCE NEW ACTORS HABITAT POWER POLITICS GREATER TECHNOLOGY MORE MONEY SCARCITY TURBULENCE

33. BROAD CHALLENGES

34. HOW SHOULD WE THINK SECURITY? 1. HOLISTIC 2. SYNERGISTIC 3. UNCERTAIN

35. ECONOMIC BASE SOCIAL FUNCTIONAL TECHNOL BASE ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES HABITAT FOUNDATIONS OF OUR SECURITY ELITE POLITICS STRUCTURAL STABILITY

36. 40% MISERABLE SINK DEEPER ENTRENCHED ALIENATED 20% RICH GET POORER 20% POOR STAGNATE FADING ’WEST’ RISING ’EAST’ EXTERNAL HARMONY ECONOMIC BASE SOCIAL FUNCTIONAL 20% POOR GET RICHER DOMESTIC HARMONY TECHNOL BASE ANTAGONISTIC DEGRADATION DISRUPTION DEPLETION INHERENT ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM GLOBAL CLASS TENSIONS ELITE INTEGRATION DEEP TRENDS MORE POWER GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007 CRIME MISCHIEF KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON MORE VULNERABLE GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION ? DESIGN Y2K MANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09 STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION ELITE DIVERSITY SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER TURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish DOMESTIC TURBULENCE NEGLECT PANDEMIC NEW ACTORS MEGA SABOTAGE MORE CONNECTED DEEPENING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS GREATER TECHNOLOGY MORE MONEY SCARCITY TURBULENCE

37. 40% MISERABLE SINK DEEPER ENTRENCHED ALIENATED 20% RICH GET POORER 20% POOR STAGNATE FADING ’WEST’ RISING ’EAST’ EXTERNAL HARMONY ECONOMIC BASE SOCIAL FUNCTIONAL 20% POOR GET RICHER CONCLUSION ONE HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE DOMESTIC HARMONY TECHNOL BASE ANTAGONISTIC DEGRADATION DISRUPTION DEPLETION INHERENT ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM GLOBAL CLASS TENSIONS ELITE INTEGRATION DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 MORE POWER CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007 KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON CRIME MISCHIEF MORE VULNERABLE GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION DESIGN Y2K MANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09 STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION ELITE DIVERSITY NO TUNNEL VISION SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER TURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish DOMESTIC TURBULENCE NEW ACTORS MORE CONNECTED DEEPENING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS GREATER TECHNOLOGY MORE MONEY SCARCITY TURBULENCE

38. EXTERNAL HARMONY ECONOMIC BASE POLITICAL FUNCTIONAL CONCLUSION TWO SYNERGISTIC PERSPECTIVE DOMESTIC HARMONY TECHNOL BASE ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM PANDEMIC EMERGING THREAT ENVIRONMENT 2. INCREASED SYNERGIES - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS AWARE OF LATERAL LEAPS INTEGRATED RESPONSE

39. WHERE ARE WE ?

40. POLITICAL CHALLENGES

41. 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES

42. UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08 COREHIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE 1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National DefenceHIC (deter, defend) Power ProjectionHIC (deter,enforce) 1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE:Surgical ViolenceSUR (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue) Supporting ViolenceEVA (evacuation) 1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social EngineeringBOG (PSO, MASD) PolicingPOL (asset protection, barriers, flows) DERIVATIVE 2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCE DETER:Stick - threaten painFPS + VIT (policing, show of force) COERCE:Stick - apply painVIT (gunboat diplomacy) ATTRACT:Carrot - being usefulFPS (burden sharing, high tech) 2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETY ECONOMICJAS Gripen C4SIR: If civil infrastructure damaged (ATC) DEF SECURITY: If civil police overwhelmed (Hurricane Katrina) WORKERS: Organised labour for crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills) LOGISTICS: Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun) HIGH TECH: Specialised capabilities (Drug interdiction surveillance, etc.) MILITARY SHOULD NOT DO THIS - BUT IF NOTHING ELSE IS AROUND... Katrina,ChineseEarthquake, Gudrun, Nokia +

43. 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES

44. DECAPITATION IS IN INTERSTATE WAR IS RETURNING STABILISATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IS OVER HUMAN SECURITY PEACE ENFORCEMENT COIN STATE BUILDING COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH ETC

45. 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES

46. 3.1. NEW MISSIONS

47. 3.2. NEW DOMESTIC PRECONDITIONS

48. 1. AUSTERITY 2. DENIAL

49. 3.3. INCREASED UNCERTAINTY

50. 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES