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Avian & Human Influenza Implication on Livelihoods and Humanitarian Action :

Avian & Human Influenza Implication on Livelihoods and Humanitarian Action :. March 2006. Sources: WHO, UNSIC, UNICEF, FAO, Others . WHO Pandemic Phases. UNSIC Model scenarios M odel One. Extended Phase 3 with continuing outbreaks of avian influenza

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Avian & Human Influenza Implication on Livelihoods and Humanitarian Action :

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  1. Avian & Human InfluenzaImplication on Livelihoods and Humanitarian Action: March 2006. Sources: WHO, UNSIC, UNICEF, FAO, Others.

  2. WHO Pandemic Phases

  3. UNSIC Model scenarios Model One Extended Phase 3 with continuing outbreaks of avian influenza Outbreaks ofavian influenza continue to spread, but the virus does not acquire efficient and sustained human-to-human transmissibility.

  4. Model Two Slow-onset Phase 4-5 with moderate and localised impact The virus only progressively acquires human infectiousness. It spreads slowly and to a small number of regions.

  5. Model Three Rapid-onset escalation to Phase 6 with widespread impact The virus develops the ability for efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. A human influenza pandemic rapidly spreads throughout the globe with a high infection rate.

  6. Implications of Model Onefor humanitarian action • Impact on livelihoods/vulnerability levels • Need to accelerate planning and preparedness • Increased demand for humanitarian action

  7. Implications of Model Two for humanitarian action In affected areas…  humanitarian operations disrupted by quarantines  current humanitarian caseload affected  numbers of vulnerable might increase  humanitarian operations disrupted in affected areas only

  8. Implications of Model Three for humanitarian action • humanitarian staff will decrease  humanitarian operations disrupted  current humanitarian caseload dramatically affected  numbers of vulnerable will increase  humanitarian operations severely disrupted worldwide

  9. Potential Impact on Livelihoods Human Capital • Illness of death of one or more household member • Out fostering of one or more children orphaned • Temporary migration for wage work • Loss of farm and off farm labour • Decrease in cultivated areas, change in crop patterns, declines in yeilds • Withdrawal of children from school

  10. Potential Impact on Livelihoods Financial Capital • Reductions in incomes from farm and off farm sources • Asset sales – liquidation of savings • Change in wage earning among female headed households • Borrowing - other negative coping strategies

  11. Impact of the Epizootic on Livelihoods and Vulnerability Levels Critical Issues • Availability of compensation for culled poultry • Gender implications

  12. Addressing Livelihood issues in Southern Africa What we are we doing: • Developing system wide guidance for planning and preparedness • Regional level draft CP plan • Support to country level actions • Identification of chronic / acutely vulnerable households (VAC?)

  13. “What we do now will make the difference of whether it’s 5 million or 150 million” • David Nabarro, UN System Senior Co-ordinator for Avian Flu, 2005., 2005.

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