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Overview of 3 published risk assessments. Don Schaffner, Ph.D. Rutgers, The State University of NJ. Three risk assessments. Salmonella Enteritidis Risk Assessment Draft Risk Assessment of the Public Health Impact of Escherichia coli O156:H7 in Ground Beef

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Overview of 3 published risk assessments

Overview of 3 published risk assessments

Don Schaffner, Ph.D.

Rutgers, The State University of NJ

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Three risk assessments
Three risk assessments

  • Salmonella Enteritidis Risk Assessment

  • Draft Risk Assessment of the Public Health Impact of Escherichia coli O156:H7 in Ground Beef

  • Quantitative Assessment of Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne Listeria monocytogenes Among Selected Categories of Ready-to-Eat Foods

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Se in eggs
Se in eggs

  • Oldest “full” microbial risk assessment (started 1996, completed in 1998)

  • Quite complex!

  • Uses @risk add-in to Microsoft Excel

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Se in eggs objectives
Se in eggs objectives

  • Model from farm to table the unmitigated risk of foodborne illness due to SE from the consumption of eggs and egg products;

  • Identify target areas along the farm-to-table continuum for potential risk reduction activities

  • Compare the public health benefits accruing from the mitigated risk of SE foodborne illness with the implementation of various intervention strategies

  • Provide information on risk-effectiveness of mitigation to be utilized by the agency for subsequent cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis

  • Identify data gaps and guide future research and data collection efforts

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagram of se in eggs qra
Diagram of Se in eggs QRA

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagrams from production module
Diagrams from production module

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagram again
Diagram (again)

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Shell eggs processing and distribution module
Shell Eggs Processing and Distribution Module

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Yolk membrane breakdown

SE are found in the white

The white contains growth inhibitors

The yolk membrane keeps SE out of the yolk

The yolk membrane degrades with time and temperature

Yolk membrane breakdown

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Data used to create model

Unpublished data from Tom Humphreys, UK

Data points represent the time for more than 25% of a group of 9-11 eggs to permit SE growth

Data used to create model

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagram of se in eggs qra1
Diagram of Se in eggs QRA

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Example of le processing complexity
Example of LE processing complexity

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagram of se in eggs qra2
Diagram of Se in eggs QRA

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Preparation and consumption diagram
Preparation and consumption diagram

  • Pooling (the process of combining eggs together) influences risk

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagram of se in eggs qra3
Diagram of Se in eggs QRA

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Dose response
Dose response

Salmonella species used in feeding trials appear to be less virulent than SE, based on the epidemiologic data. Morales et al. (1996) proposed Shigella dysenteriae as a surrogate for SE

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


E coli o157 h7
E. coli O157:H7

  • Initiated in 1998

    • http://www.fsis.usda.gov/OPHS/ecolrisk/home.htm

  • Draft released in 2001

    • http://www.fsis.usda.gov/OPPDE/rdad/FRPubs/00-023NReport.pdf

  • Reviewed by National Academy of Science 2002

    • http://books.nap.edu/books/0309086272/html

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


E coli o157 h7 in ground beef objectives
E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef objectives

  • Goal is to produce a baseline risk assessment that

    • Reflects current practices along the farm-to-table continuum

    • Accurately assesses the likelihood of illness and death

  • The primary use is to assist FSIS in reviewing and refining its risk reduction strategy for E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef

  • The risk assessment produces scientific support for

    • Development of regulatory impact assessments to support FSIS rulemaking

    • Identification of critical control points and critical control limits in HACCP systems for ground beef

    • Risk-based sampling plans for FSIS inspectors

    • Identification of food safety research on E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef.

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


E coli o157 h7 in ground beef diagram
E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef diagram

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


The problem of prevalence
The problem of prevalence

  • How common is the problem in herds?

  • In a positive herd, how common is the problem?

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Why is season important
Why is season important?

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


E coli o157 h7 in ground beef diagram1
E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef diagram

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Slaughter module
Slaughter module

Note that contamination may increase, decrease or stay the same

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


E coli o157 h7 in ground beef diagram2
E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef diagram

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Preparation module
Preparation module

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Change during storage
Change during storage

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Change during cooking
Change during cooking

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


E coli o157 h7 in ground beef diagram3
E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef diagram

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Dealing with dose response
Dealing with dose response

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Risk characterization picture
Risk characterization (picture)

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Risk characterization words
Risk characterization (words)

  • Most contaminated cooked ground beef servings contain only 1 E. coli O157:H7 organism… and the risk of illness from one E. coli O157:H7 is low.

  • Few contaminated cooked ground beef servings contain 100,000 E. coli O157:H7 organisms per serving (1.8 × 10-7) but this dose results in the highest risk of illness (1.0 × 10-7) from E. coli O157:H7 in a ground beef serving.

  • Reducing the number of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated ground beef servings may reduce risk of illness more than reducing the amount of E. coli O157:H7 in contaminated servings.

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Listeria monocytogenes in rte foods
Listeria monocytogenes in RTE foods

  • The purpose of the assessment is

    • to examine systematically the available scientific data and information

    • to estimate the relative risks of serious illness and death associated with consumption of different types of ready-to-eat (RTE) foods

  • This examination of the current science and the models developed from it are among the tools that food safety regulatory agencies will consider when evaluating the effectiveness of current and future policies, programs, and regulatory practices.

  • A distinction is made between the mild non-invasive illness (referred to as listerial gastroenteritis) and the severe, sometimes life-threatening, disease (referred to as listeriosis). This risk assessment only considers listeriosis.

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Listeria monocytogenes in rte foods1
Listeria monocytogenes in RTE foods

  • Released plan in 1999

  • Released draft in 2001

  • Revised in 2003

  • Note different FAO/WHO risk assessment ongoing during the same time

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


What does it do
What does it do?

  • Provides analyses and models that…

    • Estimate the potential level of exposure

      • Three age-based population groups and the total United States population to

      • Listeria monocytogenes contaminated foods for 23 food categories

    • Relates this exposure to public health consequences

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Diagram of qra
Diagram of QRA

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Interesting features
Interesting features

Assumed detected Lm is just the tip of the iceberg

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Comparing relative ranks
Comparing relative ranks

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Risk characterization

High risk per serving

Deli Meats

Frankfurters, not reheated

Pâté and Meat Spreads

Unpasteurized Fluid Milk

Smoked Seafood

Cooked Ready-to-Eat Crustaceans

High risk per year (cases)

Deli Meats (1598.7)

Pasteurized Fluid Milk (90.8)

High Fat and Other Dairy Products (56.4)

Frankfurters, not reheated (30.5)

Risk Characterization

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Rc table
RC table

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


Three very different risk assessments
Three very different risk assessments

  • Salmonella Enteritidis in eggs

    • Farm-to-fork, many foods

  • Draft Risk Assessment of the Public Health Impact of Escherichia coli O156:H7 in Ground Beef

    • Farm-to-fork, single food, still not done!

  • Quantitative Assessment of Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne Listeria monocytogenes Among Selected Categories of Ready-to-Eat Foods

    • Limited scope (i.e. not farm-to-fork), many (many!) foods

Food Safety Risk Assessment - PubH 7100-104


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