Bottom up approaches to V&A assessment: Practical considerations

1. Bottom up approaches to V&A assessment: Practical considerations Youssef Nassef Head, Adaptation Sub-programme UNFCCC Secretariat ynassef@unfccc.int

2. Two Types of Frameworks • Top-down • Impacts, Also known as “first generation”, scenario-based • Bottom up • Vulnerability, adaptation, “second generation”

3. Different ways to view the approaches From Dessai and Hulme, 2004

4. Climate Change Scenario Biophysical Impacts Socio-Economic Impacts Adaptations to Impacts Residual or Net Impacts Another angle for top-down

5. Current Exposure Current Vulnerability Current Vulnerability Current Adaptive Capacity Climate Science Social Science Future Exposure Future Vulnerability Future Adaptive Capacity ..and for bottom-up

6. Top-down: Planning and institutional arrangements Capacity building initiatives Transfer of technologies and assessment Implementation mechanisms Bottom-up: Enhancing local capacity Community and Private Sector assessment initiatives Incorporating traditional knowledge Community and Private-Sector implementation mechanisms Another perspective (SPREP)

7. Proposed integrated approach (SPREP) • Planning and Options - National consultations • A Capacity Building Tool-Box for Adaptation • Integrated Community and Private Sector Level Assessment • Implementation - Utilising mechanisms and undertaking pilot projects.

8. Top-down approach Bottom-up approach Global/national models and data National policymaking downscaling aggregating Indicators Local policymaking Indicators Local data Another view of integration (Cicero Norway)

9. INCs: mostly top-down assessments NAPAs: Bottom-up SNC: UNFCCC User manual on the guidelines encourages the use of any approach for V&A assessment that suits the country (including APF, NAPA, etc). UNFCCC approaches

10. Expert groups (CGE, LEG, EGTT) SBSTA work programme on adaptation Funding channels Related issues (capacity-building, Article 6, Article 4.8 & 4.9) Support mechanisms through the UNFCCC process

11. Targets both top-down and bottom-up level. Includes promoting: Development and dissemination of methodologies and tools for impact and vulnerability assessments, such as rapid assessments and bottom-up approaches, including as they apply to sustainable development Understanding impacts of, and vulnerability to, climate change, current and future climate variability and extreme events, and the implications for sustainable development Availability of information on socio-economic aspects of climate change and improving integration of socio-economic information into V&A assessments Collection, analysis and dissemination of information on past and current practical adaptation actions and measures, e.g. local and indigenous knowledge The SBSTA work programme

12. The NAPA “steps”

13. A first attempt at practical “bottom-up” adaptation action – to be funded from the LDC Fund administered by GEF. Basis: Need for prioritized adaptation actions to address urgent/immediate needs of vulnerable communities. Need for adaptation assessment under existing uncertainty regarding future climate change. Prioritization: CBA, MCA, Consensus approach Lessons from NAPAs

14. Focus on enhancing adaptive capacity. Take into account current vulnerability and existing coping strategies at grassrootslevel, and build upon that to identify priority activities. Produce action-oriented programme, to be easily understood by policy-level decision-makers. Recognize that the grassroots community is the main stakeholder, thus community-level consultations should be an important input to the process. Basis of the NAPA context

15. NAPAs – Unique characteristics: • Urgent and immediate needs – those whose further delay could increase vulnerability, and/or lead to increased costs at a later stage. • Use of existing information – no new research needed. • Input from local communities on existing coping strategies. • Action-oriented and country-driven approach. • Simplicity – easy to understand.

16. Sample projects from Bangladesh NAPA: Construction of flood shelters ($5 million) Enhancing resilience of urban infrastructure and industries to cc impacts, including floods and cyclones ($2 million) Exploring options for insurance and other emergency preparedness measures to cope with climatic disasters ($2 million) Sample projects from Samoa NAPA: Community water purification programmes ($125K) Alternative water storage programmes ($150K) Forest fire implementation strategy ($140K) Examples of activities

17. Regional synergy Documenting indigenous adaptation The missing link

18. UNFCCC database on local coping strategies – <http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/> Development process: Designing questionnaire; Surveying relevant research institutions, NGOs, universities, relevant experts; Literature research; Evaluation of local coping strategies regarding: effectiveness, transferability/ replicability, local ownership/buy-in, appropriateness and sustainability; Inclusion in database. Documenting community-level action

19. In response to tropical cyclones: Community-based disaster preparedness and early warning in the Philippines Cyclone preparedness programme in Bangladesh Typhoon preparedness in Japan In response to floods: Flood preparedness programmes in Nepal, and Thailand Post-flood rehabilitation programme in Bangladesh Mitigating GLOF effects in Nepal In response to droughts: Indigenous forecasting in India Relevant examples

20. Searching by hazard Screen shots

21. …and by impact

22. Overview screen

23. Thank you