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I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003. LA-06. Climate change Water resources Extreme events. Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications of Downscaling in the Central American Region. Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador

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I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

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  1. Ist Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003 LA-06 Climate change Water resources Extreme events

  2. Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications of Downscaling in the Central American Region Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of Physics), Collaborators: Werner Stolz, IMN and CIGEFI-UCR Erick Rivera, CIGEFI-UCR Mauricio Blanco, CIGEFI-UCR University of Costa Rica 27-30, May 2003

  3. Downscaling, Why? • It is justified whenever GCM (or RCM) simulations of variable(s) used for impacts modelling are unrealistic at the temporal and spatial scales of interest, either because the impact scales are below the climate model’s resolution, or because of model deficiencies. At the same time the GCM must have demonstrable skill for large-scale variables that are strongly correlated with local processes. (Wilby & Dawson, 2001).

  4. Zonal Wind, u, Est. Juan Santamaría

  5. Some GCM’s Used • CSIRO (Australia) • CCCma (Canadá) • HadCM3 (Inglaterra) • NCAR-PCM (USA): • ECHAM4.5 (EC)

  6. GCM’s Grid Points, Wind Magnitude 19°N 15°N CCCma-vientos NCAR-vientos CSIRO-vientos HadCM3-vientos

  7. Wind

  8. Wind

  9. ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.

  10. ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.

  11. MSD

  12. Tair OBS CCM3 Precip MSD

  13. observed ITCZ CCM3

  14. SAN ANDRÉS ISLAND: Rainfall Climatology 1971-2000 19°N 15°N Isla de San Andrés

  15. GCM’s Grid Points, Rainfall 17°N 15°N CCCma-lluvia NCAR-lluvia CSIRO-lluvia HadCM3-lluvia

  16. HadCM3 HadCM3

  17. Col. Dra. Xian Fu, UEA

  18. MAD, IPCC Data Temp(°C) Prec(mm) DJF JJA DJF JJACGCM2 2.18 1.79 171.36 310.24 CSIROmk2 2.14 1.86 165.84 239.86 CSM1.3 2.23 2.13 197.72 382.55 ECHam4 3.09 1.76 181.91 227.83 GFDLR15b 1.98 1.87 153.90 272.06 MRI2 2.73 2.65 201.23 455.85 CCSRNIES2 2.13 2.32 181.82 317.30 DOEPCM 2.49 2.29 172.40 441.73 HadCM3 2.33 2.46 166.87 355.21

  19. A1: a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic, cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.

  20. Resolución: 3.7° lat x 3.75° lon

  21. Records Used

  22. Precipitation Predictor: Vorticity at 850 hPa.

  23. PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.

  24. PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.

  25. PrecipitationPredictor: Wind Magnitude at 850 hPa.

  26. Temp. minPredictor: Near Surface Specific Humidity.

  27. Temp. maxPredictor: Near surface Divergence.

  28. Acknowledgements AIACC University of Costa Rica NOAA/OGP

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