I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003
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I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003. LA-06. Climate change Water resources Extreme events. Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications of Downscaling in the Central American Region. Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador

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I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

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Ist Latin America and the Caribbean

Regional Workshop

San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

LA-06

Climate change

Water resources

Extreme events


Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications

of Downscaling in the Central American Region

Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador

Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of Physics),

Collaborators:

Werner Stolz, IMN and CIGEFI-UCR

Erick Rivera, CIGEFI-UCR

Mauricio Blanco, CIGEFI-UCR

University of Costa Rica

27-30, May 2003


Downscaling, Why?

  • It is justified whenever GCM (or RCM) simulations of variable(s) used for impacts modelling are unrealistic at the temporal and spatial scales of interest, either because the impact scales are below the climate model’s resolution, or because of model deficiencies. At the same time the GCM must have demonstrable skill for large-scale variables that are strongly correlated with local processes. (Wilby & Dawson, 2001).


Zonal Wind, u, Est. Juan Santamaría


Some GCM’s Used

  • CSIRO (Australia)

  • CCCma (Canadá)

  • HadCM3 (Inglaterra)

  • NCAR-PCM (USA):

  • ECHAM4.5 (EC)


GCM’s Grid Points, Wind Magnitude

19°N

15°N

CCCma-vientos

NCAR-vientos

CSIRO-vientos

HadCM3-vientos


Wind


Wind


ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.


ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.


MSD


Tair

OBS

CCM3

Precip

MSD


observed

ITCZ

CCM3


SAN ANDRÉS ISLAND: Rainfall Climatology 1971-2000

19°N

15°N

Isla de San Andrés


GCM’s Grid Points, Rainfall

17°N

15°N

CCCma-lluvia

NCAR-lluvia

CSIRO-lluvia

HadCM3-lluvia


HadCM3

HadCM3


Col. Dra. Xian Fu, UEA


MAD, IPCC Data Temp(°C) Prec(mm)DJF JJA DJF JJACGCM22.18 1.79 171.36 310.24CSIROmk2 2.14 1.86 165.84 239.86CSM1.32.23 2.13 197.72 382.55 ECHam4 3.09 1.76 181.91 227.83GFDLR15b 1.98 1.87 153.90 272.06MRI2 2.73 2.65 201.23 455.85 CCSRNIES2 2.13 2.32 181.82 317.30 DOEPCM 2.49 2.29 172.40 441.73 HadCM3 2.33 2.46 166.87 355.21


A1: a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic, cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.


Resolución:

3.7° lat x 3.75° lon


Records Used


Precipitation Predictor: Vorticity at 850 hPa.


PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.


PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.


PrecipitationPredictor: Wind Magnitude at 850 hPa.


Temp. minPredictor: Near Surface Specific Humidity.


Temp. maxPredictor: Near surface Divergence.


Acknowledgements

AIACC

University of Costa Rica

NOAA/OGP


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