I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003
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I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003. LA-06. Climate change Water resources Extreme events. Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications of Downscaling in the Central American Region. Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador

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I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

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I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Ist Latin America and the Caribbean

Regional Workshop

San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003

LA-06

Climate change

Water resources

Extreme events


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Assessment of some GCM’s features and Applications

of Downscaling in the Central American Region

Eric J. Alfaro and Jorge A. Amador

Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, (LIAP, School of Physics),

Collaborators:

Werner Stolz, IMN and CIGEFI-UCR

Erick Rivera, CIGEFI-UCR

Mauricio Blanco, CIGEFI-UCR

University of Costa Rica

27-30, May 2003


Downscaling why

Downscaling, Why?

  • It is justified whenever GCM (or RCM) simulations of variable(s) used for impacts modelling are unrealistic at the temporal and spatial scales of interest, either because the impact scales are below the climate model’s resolution, or because of model deficiencies. At the same time the GCM must have demonstrable skill for large-scale variables that are strongly correlated with local processes. (Wilby & Dawson, 2001).


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Zonal Wind, u, Est. Juan Santamaría


Some gcm s used

Some GCM’s Used

  • CSIRO (Australia)

  • CCCma (Canadá)

  • HadCM3 (Inglaterra)

  • NCAR-PCM (USA):

  • ECHAM4.5 (EC)


Gcm s grid points wind magnitude

GCM’s Grid Points, Wind Magnitude

19°N

15°N

CCCma-vientos

NCAR-vientos

CSIRO-vientos

HadCM3-vientos


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Wind


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Wind


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

ECHAM4.5. Monthly means for 1990 - 1999. Run stars: January 3, 1950, 00Z.


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

MSD


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Tair

OBS

CCM3

Precip

MSD


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

observed

ITCZ

CCM3


San andr s island rainfall climatology 1971 2000

SAN ANDRÉS ISLAND: Rainfall Climatology 1971-2000

19°N

15°N

Isla de San Andrés


Gcm s grid points rainfall

GCM’s Grid Points, Rainfall

17°N

15°N

CCCma-lluvia

NCAR-lluvia

CSIRO-lluvia

HadCM3-lluvia


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

HadCM3

HadCM3


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Col. Dra. Xian Fu, UEA


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

MAD, IPCC Data Temp(°C) Prec(mm)DJF JJA DJF JJACGCM22.18 1.79 171.36 310.24CSIROmk2 2.14 1.86 165.84 239.86CSM1.32.23 2.13 197.72 382.55 ECHam4 3.09 1.76 181.91 227.83GFDLR15b 1.98 1.87 153.90 272.06MRI2 2.73 2.65 201.23 455.85 CCSRNIES2 2.13 2.32 181.82 317.30 DOEPCM 2.49 2.29 172.40 441.73 HadCM3 2.33 2.46 166.87 355.21


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

A1: a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic, cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Resolución:

3.7° lat x 3.75° lon


Records used

Records Used


Precipitation predictor vorticity at 850 hpa

Precipitation Predictor: Vorticity at 850 hPa.


Precipitation predictor specific humidity at 500 hpa

PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.


Precipitation predictor specific humidity at 500 hpa1

PrecipitationPredictor: Specific Humidity at 500 hPa.


Precipitation predictor wind magnitude at 850 hpa

PrecipitationPredictor: Wind Magnitude at 850 hPa.


Temp min predictor near surface specific humidity

Temp. minPredictor: Near Surface Specific Humidity.


Temp max predictor near surface divergence

Temp. maxPredictor: Near surface Divergence.


I st latin america and the caribbean regional workshop san jos costa rica mayo 2003

Acknowledgements

AIACC

University of Costa Rica

NOAA/OGP


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