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Anonymity and Sensitivity

Anonymity and Sensitivity. Fritz Scheuren, Speaker NORC University of Chicago February 2013. Scope of USA Migration Studies. Emigration from USA to World Immigration from World to USA Direct Indirect. Outline of Talk. Problem Science of Approach Engineering of Its Implementation

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Anonymity and Sensitivity

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  1. Anonymity and Sensitivity Fritz Scheuren, Speaker NORC University of Chicago February 2013

  2. Scope of USA Migration Studies • Emigration from USA to World • Immigration from World to USA Direct Indirect

  3. Outline of Talk • Problem • Science of Approach • Engineering of Its Implementation • Results So Far! • Next Steps?

  4. Immigrants Sans Paper • Physical Border Protection Worldwide? • Mostly “Thought” to be South to North? • Only An Indirect Estimate Available

  5. Legal Immigrants First? • Over a Million Come Annually, still Largest Legal Flow Of Any Country • About 150 Million Made citizens since 1940

  6. Undocumented May Be Much Smaller? • Flow is believed to average Less than Legal • Stock Estimated, perhaps, at 12 million • Flow is Business Cycle Driven, but usually less

  7. Physical Border Protection • Extremely long Borders with Canada and Mexico • Mexico Border Not Well Guarded • Drug Trafficking a Major Problem for USA/Mexico

  8. Mainly South to North? • Mexican Border Crossers but This Model is too Simple • Student and Visitor Visa Overstays • Still Often Tied to US Jobs

  9. Who Comes Legally Now? • Traditional Americas and Western Europeans but Less legally than earlier • Eastern Europeans Still in Large Numbers • Koreans and Chinese up, Africa coming up

  10. Science Approach • Two Card Method (Handout) • Two Independent Replicates • Difference Estimate of Number of Undocumented

  11. Two Card Example(Green Card)

  12. First Card • Two options Given -- • First option: US Citizenship or Undocumented • Second Option: Green Card or Other

  13. Two Card Example(Other than Green)

  14. Second Card • Two Options Given – • First Option: US Citizenship • Second Option: Green Card or Other • Both Cards: Safe Answer

  15. Difference Undocumented • Estimate Unbiased, if Question Understood and Answered Honestly • But Variance Twice as Large as Direct Question • However Bias Eliminated

  16. Engineering Solution • Human Factors Design Study • To test Factor Importance • Protecting Anonymity to Gain Unbiased Answers

  17. A Credible Balancing Bar?

  18. Balance of Trust? • Key is Creating High Anonymity to Overcome PERCEIVED level of risk. • Given the Sensitivity of the Subject • Need Data so we tested.

  19. Sensitivity Loss • The Two Card method has a Variance Cost and is a challenge in moving Univariate analysis to a Multivariate form • The Newness remains for Anonymity form

  20. Anonymity Loss • Credibility of Promise is a real concern? • So Move to a Promise that CONSTRUCTS Established Trust? • Key Improvement!

  21. Results So Far • About 350 tests of the Two-Card method and its variations have been undertaken. • The tests show that the results are robust to minor wording changes

  22. More Results So Far • The Results are not robust to being wordy. • Potential respondent are not paid, probably a mistake. • If version was lengthy, more break-offs likely.

  23. Still More Highlights • Location changes, also are not robust. • Intercepts near the Mexican Border (near San Diego) were seen as more risky, so stopped.

  24. Other Changes? • If scaled up, more characteristics and more intercept locations are definitely needed. • Respondent based area probabilities needed to adjust for self selection.

  25. Interviewer Training • The extensive paradata calculated needs to be turned into a model for training. • Intercept Interviews are changing NORC Team. • How Measure/Control?

  26. Intercept Scalability • How replicable are the Interceptors we chose? • How replicable and scalable is this process? • What controls are there and how scientific are we?

  27. Selected Respondent Comments • [Interview] was easy, because none of the questions are hard and explained it very well. • [Glad you] understand the immigrants and their education level.

  28. More Respondent Comments • He was hesitant at first and I asked him why. • He said because people [might identify him].I asked him how I was going to find out. I told him [many] are similar].

  29. Next Steps Coming? • Write up Results of this small NSF grant? • Expand to another Undocumented group: Asians, Russian Jews? • Take Sting off Hispanics

  30. Portable to Europe?Your Question! • In a register based society is this needed? • Some evidence says Yes but little leakage? • More references needed? Short list follows?

  31. Many, Many Thanks! • Contact Details Fritz Scheuren +1-202-320-3446 scheuren@aol.com

  32. References • Cochran, William G. Sampling Techniques. New York: Wiley, 1977. Print. • Dyson, Freeman J. "Is Science Mostly Driven by Ideas or by Tools?" Science 338.6113 (2012): 1426-427. Print. • Galison, Peter. Image and Logic: A Material Culture of Microphysics. Chicago: University of Chicago, 1997.

  33. References • GAO. A "Grouped Answers" Approach to Surveying Foreign-Born Respondents. Rep. no. GAO-06-775. N.p.: GAO, 2006. Print. • Kuhn, Thomas S. The Structure of Scientific Revolution. Chicago: University of Chicago, 1996. Print.

  34. References • Lehoux, Daryn, and Jay Foster. "History and Philosophy of Science: A Revolution of Its Own." Science 338.6109 (2012): 885-86. Print. • Pasic, Peter.” What the Romans Really Knew,” Science 338:273-274. • Reynolds, Gregg. Immigrant Experience Survey Interim Report. , 2013.

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