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1. Georgia Teacher Shortages, Supply and Demand Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Kelly C. Henson, Executive Secretary
August 27, 2008
2. Teacher Demand
3. Georgia P-12 Actual and Projected Teacher Staffing 1997-1998 through 2011-2012 School Years Georgia’s teacher staffing must keep pace with student enrollment. The model used to predict future staffing is based on Georgia’s history of surges and declines in the rate of enrollment growth over time. It does not attempt to predict changes in policy affecting such things as class size, curriculum or graduation requirements. The upper and lower confidence intervals represent the upper and lower bounds of predicted staffing growth, similar to the upper and lower bounds always provided with national survey results. The projected demand is our best estimate, and it is very unlikely, barring radical economic or meteorological events or significant policy change, that staffing will fall above or below the confidence intervals.Georgia’s teacher staffing must keep pace with student enrollment. The model used to predict future staffing is based on Georgia’s history of surges and declines in the rate of enrollment growth over time. It does not attempt to predict changes in policy affecting such things as class size, curriculum or graduation requirements. The upper and lower confidence intervals represent the upper and lower bounds of predicted staffing growth, similar to the upper and lower bounds always provided with national survey results. The projected demand is our best estimate, and it is very unlikely, barring radical economic or meteorological events or significant policy change, that staffing will fall above or below the confidence intervals.
4. Georgia Fall Student Enrollment by School Level, 1994-1995 through 2007-2008 School Years Changes in the rates of growth are more clearly shown when enrollment is separated into the three schooling levels of elementary, middle and high school. Some of the variations in enrollment growth are simply a function of surges or declines in student enrollment moving through the grades, like a wave. For example, the increase in middle school enrollment in the early 2000’s follows some of the increase at the elementary level during the late 1990’s. Other influences can include long-term increases in enrollment, effects of shifts to and from private school or home schooling, or changes in student dropout and graduation rates. These changes mean substantial differences in the demand over time for elementary, middle and high school teachers.Changes in the rates of growth are more clearly shown when enrollment is separated into the three schooling levels of elementary, middle and high school. Some of the variations in enrollment growth are simply a function of surges or declines in student enrollment moving through the grades, like a wave. For example, the increase in middle school enrollment in the early 2000’s follows some of the increase at the elementary level during the late 1990’s. Other influences can include long-term increases in enrollment, effects of shifts to and from private school or home schooling, or changes in student dropout and graduation rates. These changes mean substantial differences in the demand over time for elementary, middle and high school teachers.
5. Teacher Shortage
6. Teacher Shortage, Federally Defined By the Federal definition, shortage is identified as a lack of full certification, or in Georgia terminology Clear Renewable certification. The Federal definition is more stringent than the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) “Not Highly Qualified” or the more commonly used “Out-of-Field” definitions in which a teacher has no certification for the field being taught. By the Federal definition, Georgia’s overall teacher shortage is about 11% of Georgia’s public school teaching staff.By the Federal definition, Georgia’s overall teacher shortage is about 11% of Georgia’s public school teaching staff.
7. Number & Percent of Georgia Teachers Without Full Certification, Highest Twelve Subject Areas Shortages vary greatly in both the number of teachers and the percentage of teachers needed to address the shortages. Elementary teachers have by far the greatest numerical shortage, but because that group is very large, that number constitutes just over 8% that are not fully certified. The elementary special education and consultative special education shortages are next largest in number and have the largest proportionate shortages at 44% and 26%. Mathematics and the sciences have received recent attention for their shortages, ranging from slightly over 14% to more than 18%. The shortage of fully certified English/ Language Arts teachers is almost as large at just under 12%.Shortages vary greatly in both the number of teachers and the percentage of teachers needed to address the shortages. Elementary teachers have by far the greatest numerical shortage, but because that group is very large, that number constitutes just over 8% that are not fully certified. The elementary special education and consultative special education shortages are next largest in number and have the largest proportionate shortages at 44% and 26%. Mathematics and the sciences have received recent attention for their shortages, ranging from slightly over 14% to more than 18%. The shortage of fully certified English/ Language Arts teachers is almost as large at just under 12%.
8. Sources of New Teachers
9. Sources of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers, 2006-2007 School Year Roughly one-fourth of our supply of newly hired teachers each year comes from one or the other of four primary sources: Traditional college programs, alternate route preparation programs, teachers coming from other states, and teachers returning from having “stopped out” from the profession for one or more years. Most of the teachers being prepared through alternative routes, typically individuals with non-teaching college degrees completing teaching requirements, are prepared by Georgia colleges and universities. The Traditional Program and Alternate Route segments are all new teachers without experience. Returning teachers of course have prior experience. Teachers recruited from other states may be new teachers from out-of-state universities or may be experienced teachers from out-of-state schools.Roughly one-fourth of our supply of newly hired teachers each year comes from one or the other of four primary sources: Traditional college programs, alternate route preparation programs, teachers coming from other states, and teachers returning from having “stopped out” from the profession for one or more years. Most of the teachers being prepared through alternative routes, typically individuals with non-teaching college degrees completing teaching requirements, are prepared by Georgia colleges and universities. The Traditional Program and Alternate Route segments are all new teachers without experience. Returning teachers of course have prior experience. Teachers recruited from other states may be new teachers from out-of-state universities or may be experienced teachers from out-of-state schools.
10. Contribution of Certificated New Teachers by Georgia Institutions of Higher Education, 2006-2007 School Year About 82% of certified new teachers provided by Georgia higher education institutions are provided by Georgia’s public colleges and universities. Private colleges and universities supply the other 18%.About 82% of certified new teachers provided by Georgia higher education institutions are provided by Georgia’s public colleges and universities. Private colleges and universities supply the other 18%.
11. Number of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers from Major Sources Past Three School Years All four primary sources of newly hired teachers have supplied increasing numbers. HOWEVER (see next graph) All four primary sources of newly hired teachers have supplied increasing numbers. HOWEVER (see next graph)
12. Percentage of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers from Major Sources Past Three School Years The contribution of newly hired teachers has increased only for alternate routes and the supply of teachers from other states. Traditional programs have supplied a slightly declining proportion of new teachers over the last three years. The proportion of teachers returning to the classroom following an absence of one or more years has declined at about twice the rate of the supply from traditional programs.The contribution of newly hired teachers has increased only for alternate routes and the supply of teachers from other states. Traditional programs have supplied a slightly declining proportion of new teachers over the last three years. The proportion of teachers returning to the classroom following an absence of one or more years has declined at about twice the rate of the supply from traditional programs.
13. Georgia Traditional Higher Education Fully Certified Teacher Yield, First Three Years After Completion, Six Year Average (2000-2005) Slightly more than 60% of new teachers completing their education at Georgia’s colleges and universities become fully certified in the year following graduation. About 20% complete their certification during the second year. Very few become certified after the second year.Slightly more than 60% of new teachers completing their education at Georgia’s colleges and universities become fully certified in the year following graduation. About 20% complete their certification during the second year. Very few become certified after the second year.
14. Yield of Newly Certified Teachers by Public IHEs Students Completing an Education Program in the 2006-2007 School Year This table shows the number of completers from each public Georgia institution of higher education that became certified by the Professional Standards Commission in the first year and a half following completion, and the number and percent that were hired by Georgia public schools by the fall of 2007 for the 2007-2008 school year. Individuals who graduate but do not become employed in Georgia’s public schools might teach out of state or in private schools, find private sector employment, or perhaps are not offered a position in their preferred location.This table shows the number of completers from each public Georgia institution of higher education that became certified by the Professional Standards Commission in the first year and a half following completion, and the number and percent that were hired by Georgia public schools by the fall of 2007 for the 2007-2008 school year. Individuals who graduate but do not become employed in Georgia’s public schools might teach out of state or in private schools, find private sector employment, or perhaps are not offered a position in their preferred location.
15. Yield of Newly Certified Teachers by Private IHEs Students Completing Education Program in the 2006-2007 Academic Year This table shows the number of completers from each private Georgia institution of higher education that became certified by the Professional Standards Commission in the first year and a half following completion, and the number and percent that were hired by Georgia public schools by the fall of 2007 for the 2007-2008 school year.This table shows the number of completers from each private Georgia institution of higher education that became certified by the Professional Standards Commission in the first year and a half following completion, and the number and percent that were hired by Georgia public schools by the fall of 2007 for the 2007-2008 school year.
16. Public & Private Georgia Higher Education Yield: Core Area Certificates, 2006-2007 School Year The majority of newly certified teachers in core subject areas from Georgia’s higher education institutions are provided by the public colleges and universities. Private institutions provide a sizeable proportion of English teachers.The majority of newly certified teachers in core subject areas from Georgia’s higher education institutions are provided by the public colleges and universities. Private institutions provide a sizeable proportion of English teachers.
17. Public & Private Georgia Higher Education Yield: Elementary and Middle School Certificates, 2006-2007 School Year Georgia’s public institutions provide most of the new teachers who are issued middle school certificates as well as those who are certified to teach in elementary schools. Private schools supply a slightly larger proportion of the teachers who are issued Early Childhood certificates to teach in elementary schools.Georgia’s public institutions provide most of the new teachers who are issued middle school certificates as well as those who are certified to teach in elementary schools. Private schools supply a slightly larger proportion of the teachers who are issued Early Childhood certificates to teach in elementary schools.
18. Public & Private Georgia Higher Education Yield: Special Education Certificates, 2006-2007 School Year Most of the new special education certificates are issued to teachers from Georgia’s public institutions. Most of the new special education certificates are issued to teachers from Georgia’s public institutions.
19. Teacher Attrition
20. Annual Percent Attrition of Teachers from the Georgia Public School Workforce, 1997-1998 through 2006-2007 School Years Statewide overall annual attrition has remained relatively stable for the past several years at about 9.1%. Overall attrition, however, includes both the departure of teachers from the state teaching rolls as well as the promotion or transfer of teachers to non-teaching positions in administration or student services. The rate of promotion has increased slightly to 1.53% while the rate of attrition of teachers from the Georgia public school system has declined to 7.63% in 2007.Statewide overall annual attrition has remained relatively stable for the past several years at about 9.1%. Overall attrition, however, includes both the departure of teachers from the state teaching rolls as well as the promotion or transfer of teachers to non-teaching positions in administration or student services. The rate of promotion has increased slightly to 1.53% while the rate of attrition of teachers from the Georgia public school system has declined to 7.63% in 2007.
21. Two-Year Average Annual Teacher Attrition Rates by Subject Areas Rates of teacher attrition vary dramatically across subject areas. These rates include both promotion and loss. Of the larger groups, health, physical education and elementary teachers show relatively low rates. The rate of attrition for mathematics teachers is under 10%, while the rate for teachers of the sciences slightly exceeds 10%. English/language arts and foreign language teachers have the highest attrition rates.Rates of teacher attrition vary dramatically across subject areas. These rates include both promotion and loss. Of the larger groups, health, physical education and elementary teachers show relatively low rates. The rate of attrition for mathematics teachers is under 10%, while the rate for teachers of the sciences slightly exceeds 10%. English/language arts and foreign language teachers have the highest attrition rates.
22. Two-Year Average Annual Teacher Attrition Counts by Subject Areas The attrition counts vary substantially among subject areas, although counts are influenced by the size of the group. Elementary educators show by far the largest number of leavers, but the group is far larger than any other (Fall of 2007: 44,854). Special education and English/language arts are also relatively large groups (Fall 2007: Special education 17,386, and English/language arts 11,374 including reading), and also have fairly high attrition rates.The attrition counts vary substantially among subject areas, although counts are influenced by the size of the group. Elementary educators show by far the largest number of leavers, but the group is far larger than any other (Fall of 2007: 44,854). Special education and English/language arts are also relatively large groups (Fall 2007: Special education 17,386, and English/language arts 11,374 including reading), and also have fairly high attrition rates.
23. Teacher Hiring Demand from Student Enrollment & Policy Change, Teacher Attrition & Promotion, 1997-1998 through 2007-2008 Academic Years The number of teachers required to replace attrition and promotion each year has been increasing consistently as the total teacher workforce grows. The number of teachers that must be added for enrollment growth, while “nested” in the upper area, is also quite consistent. Variation in the number of teachers that must be hired to address policy changes, such as in class size requirements, has been substantial. Most of the additional demand for teachers in the 2002 and 2003 school years was met with teachers drawn from other states. Traditional and alternative teacher preparation programs cannot successfully respond to short-term changes in increased demand.The number of teachers required to replace attrition and promotion each year has been increasing consistently as the total teacher workforce grows. The number of teachers that must be added for enrollment growth, while “nested” in the upper area, is also quite consistent. Variation in the number of teachers that must be hired to address policy changes, such as in class size requirements, has been substantial. Most of the additional demand for teachers in the 2002 and 2003 school years was met with teachers drawn from other states. Traditional and alternative teacher preparation programs cannot successfully respond to short-term changes in increased demand.
24. Comparison of Teacher Ages, 1997-1998 and 2006-2007 School Years Each bar represents a single year of age. For example, just less than 3.5% of the teachers in 1998 were 27. There may be an increase in teacher attrition over the next several years as the older teachers continue to reach retirement age, which will further increase the demand for new teachers. Some of the change in ages is due to the increase in alternative route preparation that tends to bring older individuals into the workforce. The difference in average age seems small – about ¾ of a year: The 1998 average is 41.27 years; the 2007 average is 42.04.Each bar represents a single year of age. For example, just less than 3.5% of the teachers in 1998 were 27. There may be an increase in teacher attrition over the next several years as the older teachers continue to reach retirement age, which will further increase the demand for new teachers. Some of the change in ages is due to the increase in alternative route preparation that tends to bring older individuals into the workforce. The difference in average age seems small – about ¾ of a year: The 1998 average is 41.27 years; the 2007 average is 42.04.
25. Comparison of Traditional and Actual Retention of Teachers in the Georgia Public School System Traditionally, teacher attrition has been calculated using the first departure of any teacher from the workforce. Some research has reported that half of new teachers leave in the first five years. Georgia appears to show substantially higher retention (lower attrition) than that research, keeping more than 2/3 of its new teachers during these first five years. The “traditional” rate does not approach 50% until eight years. Little research has reported the actual retention rate, which must include the teachers who return to the workforce after one or more years. When new teachers who return to the classroom are included, Georgia’s retention rate for new teachers is 60% after eight years. When promotions are taken into account, almost two-thirds of Georgia’s beginning teachers remain in Georgia schools after this much time.Traditionally, teacher attrition has been calculated using the first departure of any teacher from the workforce. Some research has reported that half of new teachers leave in the first five years. Georgia appears to show substantially higher retention (lower attrition) than that research, keeping more than 2/3 of its new teachers during these first five years. The “traditional” rate does not approach 50% until eight years. Little research has reported the actual retention rate, which must include the teachers who return to the workforce after one or more years. When new teachers who return to the classroom are included, Georgia’s retention rate for new teachers is 60% after eight years. When promotions are taken into account, almost two-thirds of Georgia’s beginning teachers remain in Georgia schools after this much time.
26. Summary
27. Number of New Teachers Needed by the 2012 School Year If the proportions of newly hired teachers from each primary source remain the same, and the overall attrition rate of about 9.1% remains the same, and student enrollment growth continues as projected, then the requirements for newly hired teachers from each source each year will almost double by 2012.If the proportions of newly hired teachers from each primary source remain the same, and the overall attrition rate of about 9.1% remains the same, and student enrollment growth continues as projected, then the requirements for newly hired teachers from each source each year will almost double by 2012.
29. Mathematics and Science Task Force Recommendations
30. Introduction Georgia is the third fastest growing state in the nation
Four years of mathematics and science are now a requirement for graduation
A more rigorous and integrated secondary curriculum has been implemented
Current production of mathematics teachers falls short of both current and future needs
The requirement for four years of sciences will increase demand for specific certifications
Only three physics teachers were produced last year
Georgia students must have available high-level science and mathematics courses in order to compete nationally and internationally
31. Task Force Members Diane Bradford, Deputy Superintendent, Office of Education Support & Improvement, Georgia Department of Education
Renee Byrd-Lewis, Director, Community Relations, Scientific Atlanta
Cindi Chance, Dean, College of Education, Georgia Southern University
Ann Cramer, Director of North America IBM Corporate Citizenship
Steve Dolinger, President, Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education
Adrian Epps, Associate Dean, College of Science & Mathematics, Kennesaw State University
Herb Garrett, Executive Director, Georgia School Superintendents Association
Stephanie Gordy, Executive Director, Griffin Regional Education Service Agency
Kelly Henson, Executive Secretary, Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Phil Horton, Professor, Covenant College
Sheila Jones, Senior Executive Director of P-16 Programs, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia
Jan Kettlewell, Vice Chancellor, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia
Connie Kopcsak, Master Teacher, Mathematics, Whitfield County Schools
Teresa MacCartney, Division Director, Educational Development Division, Office of Planning & Budget Kathleen Mathers, Director of External Relations, Governor’s Office of Student Achievement
Bill McCargo, Vice President of Community Relations, Scientific Atlanta
Paul Ohme, Director, Georgia Institute of Technology Center for Education Integrating Science, Mathematics & Computing (CEISMC)
Trish Paterson, Executive Director, Teacher Quality Initiatives, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia
José Perez, Member, Georgia State Board of Education
Mark Pevey, Senior Executive Director, P-16 Data and Operations, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia
Stephen Pruitt, Director of Academic Standards, Georgia Department of Education
Bettye Raye, Superintendent, Social Circle City Schools
Jennifer Rippner Buck, Executive Director, Governor’s Office of Student Achievement
Holly Robinson, Commissioner, Bright from the Start, Georgia Department of Early Care & Learning
Bobby Stephens, Consultant, Metro Regional Educational Service Agency
Pam Walker, Master Teacher, Science, Douglas County Schools.
32. Task Force Recommendations Attract New Mathematics & Science Teachers With Differentiated Pay
Increase Elementary Teacher Mathematics & Science Endorsements
Create an Efficient Alternative Middle & High School Teacher Preparation Route
Create Adjunct Faculty Certification for High Need Subjects
Redirect Teacher Scholarship Loan Funds
Increase Science Teacher Education Programs
Improve Teacher Retention
33. 1. Attract New Mathematics and Science Teachers With Differentiated Pay Pay new fully-certified mathematics and science teachers at Step 4 of the Georgia Teacher Salary Scale
Raise current fully-certified mathematics and science teachers at Steps E, 1, 2 or 3 to Step 4 of the Teacher Salary Scale
Require mathematics and science teachers to earn Master Teacher status to retain pay increase
34. 2. Increase Elementary Teacher Mathematics and Science Endorsements Increase opportunities for elementary teachers to earn the endorsements
Provide differentiated pay for elementary teachers with the endorsements
35. 3. Create an Efficient Alternative Middle & High School Teacher Preparation Route Subjects
Mathematics, Science, English/Language Arts, Foreign Language, Social Studies, History, Geography, Economics, Political Science, Behavioral Science
Initial Requirements
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2.5 GPA)
GACE Basic Skills Assessment
GACE Content Assessment
Initial Placement
Employment
Three Year Non-Renewable Credential
Clear Renewable Certificate Requirements
Coaching (One year minimum)
Georgia Special Requirements
GACE Professional Pedagogy Assessment
36. 4. Create Adjunct Faculty Certification for High Need Subjects Enable mathematics and science experts to teach part-time
One-year renewable license
Mentoring for teaching skills
37. 5. Redirect Teacher Scholarship Loan Funds For college students who intend to become mathematics or science teachers
Redirect $1 million each year for the Promise Teacher Scholarship Loan Program
Redirect $2 million each year for the HOPE Teacher Scholarship Loan Program
38. 6. Increase Science Teacher Education Programs Simplify program approval process
Increase flexibility for institutions to design preparation programs
Streamline current program approval and review procedures
39. 7. Improve Teacher Retention Design and implement statewide intensive new teacher induction program
40. Task Force Recommendations Attract New Mathematics & Science Teachers With Differentiated Pay
Increase Elementary Teacher Mathematics & Science Endorsements
Create an Efficient Alternative Middle & High School Teacher Preparation Route
Create Adjunct Faculty Certification for High Need Subjects
Redirect Teacher Scholarship Loan Funds
Increase Science Teacher Education Programs
Improve Teacher Retention
