slide1
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Lisa Linowes 2010 Mid-America Regulatory Conference Consumer Forum

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 21

Lisa Linowes 2010 Mid-America Regulatory Conference Consumer Forum - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 60 Views
  • Uploaded on

Wind Energy: An Assessment. Lisa Linowes 2010 Mid-America Regulatory Conference Consumer Forum June 6 - 9, 2010 Kansas City, Missouri. Energy market goals. Meeting peak demand energy needs Efficient, reliable, cost-effective generation Greenhouse emission reductions

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Lisa Linowes 2010 Mid-America Regulatory Conference Consumer Forum' - lars-valenzuela


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

Wind Energy: An Assessment

Lisa Linowes

2010 Mid-America Regulatory Conference Consumer Forum

June 6 - 9, 2010Kansas City, Missouri

energy market goals
Energy market goals

Meeting peak demand energy needs

Efficient, reliable, cost-effective generation

Greenhouse emission reductions

Stable, secure, sustained fuel sources (nix foreign oil)‏

Environmentally sensitive siting of generation

June 9, 2010 2

the system planning
The System Planning

Joint Coordinated System Plan

Eastern Interconnection

Planning Collaborative

June 9, 2010 3

the tools
The Tools

State Renewable Portfolio Standard

State requires a % of electric energy sales be generated by renewable technologies (29 states and DC mandatory)

Federal Production Tax Credit (since 1992)‏

Per KWh tax credit for electricity generated by qualified resources

Stimulus Bill: Federal loan guarantees

US Department of Energy guaranteed loans to finance renewable energy projects, electric transmission projects, etc. No performance requirement.

June 9, 2010 4

slide6

Industrial wind represents more than 90% of the proposed generating capacity of all renewable energy projects.

Image: Elk River 150mw facility, Butler County Kansas

June 9, 2010 6

the vision
The Vision

June 9, 2010 7

slide8

... And what this would look like.

  • 305,000 MW of installed wind geographically distributed
  • 19,000 miles of new 765 kV transmission lines
  • $60+ billion in transmission & infrastructure costs(2007 dollars, assumes $2.6 million per mile 765 kV line cost)
  • Wind power development capital costs in the trillions
  • Profit motive married to fast-tracking of approvals

Fine print: costs are ballpark estimates created without the benefit of detailed engineering.

Sources: American Electric Power: Interstate Transmission Vision for Wind Integration (2007)DOE 20% wind power by 2030 (2008)‏

June 9, 2010 8

compared to today
Compared to today
  • US Total installed: 34,000 mw

June 9, 2010 9

crash course in wind
Crash course in wind
  • Energy resource with limited capacity value
  • Intermittent, non-dispatchable, unpredictableProduction ‘out of sync’ with load (and peak)
  • Locationally constrained, land intensive
  • May displace fossil fuel but cannot replace it
  • Runs counter to Standard Market Design principles
  • Environmental/societal costs not well understood
  • Free, but very expensive! High contract price; costs spread over fewer hours of generation.

June 9, 2010 10

what doe says about wind
What DOE says about wind
  • Wind is an energy resource, not a capacity resource.
  • The capacity value of wind has been shown to range from approximately 5% to 40% of rated capacity.
  • Because wind is not a capacity resource, it does not require 100% backup when the wind is not blowing.
  • Wind power cannot replace the need for many “capacity resources” …If wind has some capacity value for reliability planning purposes, that should be viewed as a bonus, but not a necessity.

Source: June 2008 DOE report “20 percent wind power by 2030”

June 9, 2010 11

slide15

Benton County Wind (130.5 mw) Hourly Gen…

…mapped to PJM Hourly Load

Capacity Factor

MWH

Period from July 14, 2008 to July 18, 2008

http://www.pjm.org/markets-and-operations/energy/real-time/loadhryr.aspx http://www.ferc.gov/docs-filing/eqr/data/spreadsheet.asp

June 9, 2010 15

slide16

Benton County Wind (130.5 mw) Hourly Gen…

…mapped to PJM Hourly Load

Capacity Factor

MWH

http://www.pjm.org/markets-and-operations/energy/real-time/loadhryr.aspx http://www.ferc.gov/docs-filing/eqr/data/spreadsheet.asp

June 9, 2010 16

rps the rec market
RPS & the REC market
  • Twenty-nine states plus DC
  • Establish set-aside market for renewables(Qualified renewables vary by State and subject are to change)
  • Single-price system rewards energy not capacity
  • Discourages competition leading to higher prices (Economic development)
  • Arbitrary percentages, limited analysis (ex: IL)

June 9, 2010 17

valuing a rec
Valuing a REC
  • A single metric:

1 MWh of energy equals 1 REC

  • Based on a single assumption:

1 MWh of renewable energybacks out 1 MWh fossil

June 9, 2010 18

recs a binary market
RECs, a binary market
  • As compliance is met, REC prices sink
  • Ex:
    • MA alternative compliance payment: $61/MWh
    • Current market value for same: $18/MWh
    • Future REC values: under $25 through to 2016

Source: Chicago Climate Futures Exchange

June 9, 2010 19

case study cape wind
Case study: Cape Wind
  • 130 turbines, 468 mw installed (3.6 mw each)
  • Anticipated average CF: 39% (~182 mw)
  • Terms of negotiated PPA just released:

- Wholesale, bundle energy price: $207 MWh

- REC component: $67 MWh

- Energy component: $140 MWh

- 3.5% yearly escalator

Comparable renewables pricing: $80 MWh

Conventional pricing: $50 MWh or less

June 9, 2010 20

slide21

Thank You

Lisa Linowes

www.windaction.org

603-838-6588

ad