Challenges and opportunities in the flat panel display market
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Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market. Paul Semenza Executive Vice President iSuppli/Stanford Resources. Topics. Display component market overview LCD PDP OLED and emerging technologies

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Paul Semenza Executive Vice President iSuppli/Stanford Resources

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Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market

Paul Semenza

Executive Vice President

iSuppli/Stanford Resources


Topics

  • Display component market overview

    • LCD

    • PDP

    • OLED and emerging technologies

  • Display systems markets – worldwide and China

    • Monitors

    • TV

  • Summary and conclusions


TFT-LCD will dominate the display market

  • LCDs exceeded 50% of electronic display market value in 2002

  • TFT-LCDs dominate – and most revenue is in large (>10 inch) sizes

  • Little revenue growth for CRT, but 80% of TVs will have them in 2007

  • New flat panel types continue to emerge to compete with LCDs


LCD is taking over the monitor market…


LCD monitors are getting bigger…

  • TFT-LCD monitor panel compound annual growth rate of 33% from 2003 to 2007…


So are notebook computer displays…

  • TFT-LCD notebook panel compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2003 to 2007…


LCD TVs are set to take off


Rapid growth for large TFT-LCD panel value

  • TFT-LCD large panel revenue compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2003 to 2007…


Large TFT-LCD pricing fell rapidly until 2003


Korea dominates TFT, Taiwan surpassed Japan

  • Unit production shares for large TFT-LCD panels, 2Q03…


1,100 x 1,250/1,300

(Gen 5)

Large size Monitor and TV

Monitor

680 x 880 – 730 x 920

(Gen 4)

Notebook

and

Monitor

550 x 650 – 620 x 720

(Gen 3)

370 x 470

(Gen 2)

Notebook

Area = x

~3.5x

~8x

~2.5x

New Fab Generations: 1,500 x 1,800 (Gen 6); 1,800 x 2,100 (Gen 7?)

Display manufacturing driven by increased area

15-Inch Panels Per Substrate

Substrate Sizes (“Generations”) and Key Applications

15-Up

6-Up

4-Up

2-Up (14-inch)

11


Japanese producers moving to small-size TFT-LCDs

  • Unit production for small-size TFT-LCDs, Q203…


Mobile phones going color


LCD market still driven by PC, investment driven by TV

  • The TV market is nearly 50% larger than the monitor market in units, and 2.5 times as large in terms of value

  • Increasing sizes of TV means higher area consumption of LCDs

  • In the near term, margins are higher for TV panels

  • Larger panels costs are less dependent on module costs


Worldwide plasma market by region


Emerging display technologies

  • New types of displays

    • OLED

    • New types of electrophoretic

    • Carbon-nanotube FEDs

  • New modes for established displays

    • Flexible format

    • 3D

  • New components

    • Barrier layers

    • Organic TFTs

    • Optical films

    • LEDs as projector light sources


Source – Samsung Electronics

Source – Sanyo-Kodak

OLED

  • Rising challenger to the LCD?

    • No issues with viewing angle or video speed

    • Gorgeous colors

    • Many manufacturing options


Current OLED products

  • Pioneer

    • Car stereo – Pioneer, Kenwood

    • Cell phone subdisplay – Fujitsu, LG (plus new color one in Europe)

  • TDK

    • Car stereo – Alpine Electronics

  • SNMD

    • Cell phone subdisplay – SEC

  • RiTdisplay

    • Cell phone subdisplay – Motorola

  • Philips

    • Shaver – Norelco

  • Delta Optoelectronics

    • Portable MP3 player – GoDot

  • SK Display

    • Digital camera – Kodak

    • [Demo mobile phone with Intel processor]

  • Samples

    • DuPont Displays, Osram


OLED activity in China

  • Production investments

    • Truly Semiconductor

    • Beijing Visionix Technology

  • Research and development

    • Shenzen SAST Display Technology

    • Beijing Founder PKU Group

    • BOE Technology Group

    • Lanbao Technology Information Co.

    • Eastcomm Communication Co.

    • Shanghai Audio & Video Electronics Group


Worldwide OLED market – value


Topics

  • Display component market overview

    • LCD

    • PDP

    • OLED and emerging technologies

  • Display systems markets – worldwide and China

    • Monitors

    • TV

  • Summary and conclusions


Worldwide market for CRT/LCD monitors


China market for CRT/LCD monitors


CRT and LCD monitor manufacturing, 2Q03

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


CRT and LCD monitor manufacturing in China, 2Q03

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


Worldwide monitor market shares

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


China monitor market shares

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


Worldwide TV market


China TV market


Topics

  • Display component market overview

    • LCD

    • PDP

    • OLED and emerging technologies

  • Display systems markets – worldwide and China

    • Monitors

    • TV

  • Summary and conclusions


Opportunities and challenges

  • China moving up value chain…

    • TN-LCD  color STN-LCD

    • TFT-LCD module assembly  TFT-LCD panel manufacturing

    • CRT  PDP

    • VFD  OLED

  • Large and growing demand for local sources of displays…

    • Significant domestic market for display systems

    • Well-developed infrastructure, human resources base

  • …But risk remains

    • ROI is questionable - TFT-LCD is an expensive commodity

    • Large Korean players continue to invest from internal

    • Smaller, "pure-play" companies in Taiwan going to investors

    • Japanese companies moving to higher value products


Summary

  • TFT-LCD is now very competitive in sizes from the very small to the very large

    • Other technologies, like plasma and rear projection, will have to demonstrate superior price/performance characteristics

  • Tremendous investments in display production

    • In advance of TV market growth

  • Competition will drive prices down rapidly

    • Mass markets will benefit directly

    • Other verticals can take advantage as well

  • New technologies will continue to emerge

    • must differentiate themselves in some key applications in order to thrive


Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market

Paul Semenza

Executive Vice President

iSuppli/Stanford Resources


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