Challenges and opportunities in the flat panel display market
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Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market. Paul Semenza Executive Vice President iSuppli/Stanford Resources. Topics. Display component market overview LCD PDP OLED and emerging technologies

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Challenges and opportunities in the flat panel display market

Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market

Paul Semenza

Executive Vice President

iSuppli/Stanford Resources


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Topics

  • Display component market overview

    • LCD

    • PDP

    • OLED and emerging technologies

  • Display systems markets – worldwide and China

    • Monitors

    • TV

  • Summary and conclusions


Tft lcd will dominate the display market

TFT-LCD will dominate the display market

  • LCDs exceeded 50% of electronic display market value in 2002

  • TFT-LCDs dominate – and most revenue is in large (>10 inch) sizes

  • Little revenue growth for CRT, but 80% of TVs will have them in 2007

  • New flat panel types continue to emerge to compete with LCDs


Lcd is taking over the monitor market

LCD is taking over the monitor market…


Lcd monitors are getting bigger

LCD monitors are getting bigger…

  • TFT-LCD monitor panel compound annual growth rate of 33% from 2003 to 2007…


So are notebook computer displays

So are notebook computer displays…

  • TFT-LCD notebook panel compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2003 to 2007…


Lcd tvs are set to take off

LCD TVs are set to take off


Rapid growth for large tft lcd panel value

Rapid growth for large TFT-LCD panel value

  • TFT-LCD large panel revenue compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2003 to 2007…


Large tft lcd pricing fell rapidly until 2003

Large TFT-LCD pricing fell rapidly until 2003


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Korea dominates TFT, Taiwan surpassed Japan

  • Unit production shares for large TFT-LCD panels, 2Q03…


Display manufacturing driven by increased area

1,100 x 1,250/1,300

(Gen 5)

Large size Monitor and TV

Monitor

680 x 880 – 730 x 920

(Gen 4)

Notebook

and

Monitor

550 x 650 – 620 x 720

(Gen 3)

370 x 470

(Gen 2)

Notebook

Area = x

~3.5x

~8x

~2.5x

New Fab Generations: 1,500 x 1,800 (Gen 6); 1,800 x 2,100 (Gen 7?)

Display manufacturing driven by increased area

15-Inch Panels Per Substrate

Substrate Sizes (“Generations”) and Key Applications

15-Up

6-Up

4-Up

2-Up (14-inch)

11


Japanese producers moving to small size tft lcds

Japanese producers moving to small-size TFT-LCDs

  • Unit production for small-size TFT-LCDs, Q203…


Mobile phones going color

Mobile phones going color


Lcd market still driven by pc investment driven by tv

LCD market still driven by PC, investment driven by TV

  • The TV market is nearly 50% larger than the monitor market in units, and 2.5 times as large in terms of value

  • Increasing sizes of TV means higher area consumption of LCDs

  • In the near term, margins are higher for TV panels

  • Larger panels costs are less dependent on module costs


Worldwide plasma market by region

Worldwide plasma market by region


Emerging display technologies

Emerging display technologies

  • New types of displays

    • OLED

    • New types of electrophoretic

    • Carbon-nanotube FEDs

  • New modes for established displays

    • Flexible format

    • 3D

  • New components

    • Barrier layers

    • Organic TFTs

    • Optical films

    • LEDs as projector light sources


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Source – Samsung Electronics

Source – Sanyo-Kodak

OLED

  • Rising challenger to the LCD?

    • No issues with viewing angle or video speed

    • Gorgeous colors

    • Many manufacturing options


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Current OLED products

  • Pioneer

    • Car stereo – Pioneer, Kenwood

    • Cell phone subdisplay – Fujitsu, LG (plus new color one in Europe)

  • TDK

    • Car stereo – Alpine Electronics

  • SNMD

    • Cell phone subdisplay – SEC

  • RiTdisplay

    • Cell phone subdisplay – Motorola

  • Philips

    • Shaver – Norelco

  • Delta Optoelectronics

    • Portable MP3 player – GoDot

  • SK Display

    • Digital camera – Kodak

    • [Demo mobile phone with Intel processor]

  • Samples

    • DuPont Displays, Osram


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

OLED activity in China

  • Production investments

    • Truly Semiconductor

    • Beijing Visionix Technology

  • Research and development

    • Shenzen SAST Display Technology

    • Beijing Founder PKU Group

    • BOE Technology Group

    • Lanbao Technology Information Co.

    • Eastcomm Communication Co.

    • Shanghai Audio & Video Electronics Group


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Worldwide OLED market – value


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Topics

  • Display component market overview

    • LCD

    • PDP

    • OLED and emerging technologies

  • Display systems markets – worldwide and China

    • Monitors

    • TV

  • Summary and conclusions


Worldwide market for crt lcd monitors

Worldwide market for CRT/LCD monitors


China market for crt lcd monitors

China market for CRT/LCD monitors


Crt and lcd monitor manufacturing 2q03

CRT and LCD monitor manufacturing, 2Q03

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


Crt and lcd monitor manufacturing in china 2q03

CRT and LCD monitor manufacturing in China, 2Q03

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


Worldwide monitor market shares

Worldwide monitor market shares

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


China monitor market shares

China monitor market shares

Source – iSuppli/Stanford Resources Worldwide Monitor Market Tracker 3Q03


Worldwide tv market

Worldwide TV market


China tv market

China TV market


Paul semenza executive vice president isuppli stanford resources

Topics

  • Display component market overview

    • LCD

    • PDP

    • OLED and emerging technologies

  • Display systems markets – worldwide and China

    • Monitors

    • TV

  • Summary and conclusions


Opportunities and challenges

Opportunities and challenges

  • China moving up value chain…

    • TN-LCD  color STN-LCD

    • TFT-LCD module assembly  TFT-LCD panel manufacturing

    • CRT  PDP

    • VFD  OLED

  • Large and growing demand for local sources of displays…

    • Significant domestic market for display systems

    • Well-developed infrastructure, human resources base

  • …But risk remains

    • ROI is questionable - TFT-LCD is an expensive commodity

    • Large Korean players continue to invest from internal

    • Smaller, "pure-play" companies in Taiwan going to investors

    • Japanese companies moving to higher value products


Summary

Summary

  • TFT-LCD is now very competitive in sizes from the very small to the very large

    • Other technologies, like plasma and rear projection, will have to demonstrate superior price/performance characteristics

  • Tremendous investments in display production

    • In advance of TV market growth

  • Competition will drive prices down rapidly

    • Mass markets will benefit directly

    • Other verticals can take advantage as well

  • New technologies will continue to emerge

    • must differentiate themselves in some key applications in order to thrive


Challenges and opportunities in the flat panel display market1

Challenges and Opportunities in the Flat Panel Display Market

Paul Semenza

Executive Vice President

iSuppli/Stanford Resources


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