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MARFC Overview HAS Operations and Future Hydrologic Operations

Timely issuance of river and flood forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property. Providing hydrologic forecast information for the nation's economic and environmental well-being. MARFC covers 4 major river basins across 7 states and D.C., with a dense network of rain gages. The MARFC area has a population of over 25 million people. The MARFC staff consists of hydrologists, hydrometeorologists, and forecasters, open daily from 6 am to 11 pm, with 24x7 operations during flooding or high water events.

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MARFC Overview HAS Operations and Future Hydrologic Operations

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  1. MARFC OverviewHAS Operations and Future Hydrologic Operations Theodore Rodgers & David Solano HAS Forecasters Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center State College, PA

  2. Hydrologic Services Program & River Forecasts • “Timely issuance of river and flood forecasts and warnings for protection of life and property” • “Provide hydrologic forecast information for the nation’s economic and environmental well being” • Forecast guidance generated by River Forecast Centers • Relayed to NWS Forecast offices for issuance to the public

  3. MARFC Staff & Hours • Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) • Senior Coordination Hydrologist (SCH) NEW • 9 Hydrologists (4 leads, 5 journeymen) • 3 Hydrometeorologists • 1 ASA • Typically open 6am to 11pm daily • 24X7 operations commence when flooding or high water is forecast

  4. MARFC AREA • 4 major river basins • 7 states & D.C. • ~80,000 sq. miles • Pop>25 million • 166 forecast points • Fast responding • QPF (location, intensity, duration & amount) really drives our hydrologic model

  5. Fast Responding Hydrographs!

  6. Middle Atlantic RFC HSA • Baltimore/Washington (LWX) • Binghamton, NY (BGM) • Blacksburg, VA (RNK) • New York, NY (OKX) • Mt. Holly, NJ (PHI) • State College, PA (CTP) • Wakefield, VA (AKQ)

  7. MARFC Products • Daily river forecast guidance (48-72 hr time series) • Flood forecast (high water) guidance • Flash flood guidance • Headwater guidance • Flood Outlook Product • Winter/Spring flood potential outlooks • Water supply forecasts • Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) products • Precipitation departure products • Rate of rise product

  8. HAS Forecasting • HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL • ANALYSIS and • SUPPORT • Who does the HAS support? • What does the HAS do at an RFC?

  9. HAS Main Responsibilities and Support • Meteorological Input to River Forecast Models (DHQC observed precipitation gages - types), 48 hr QPF, past & future temperatures, Muti-Precipitation Estimates (MPE) • River Forecast Center and Weather Forecast Office Support • Provide meteorological support for RFC Hydrologists • Coordination (WFO’s, HPC, RFC’s) - QPF (location, amount, timing, intensity) - Z/R relationship - Flood potential - Rain / Snow Lines - Contingency QPF (what if?) - Gage Outages • Crossed-trained (River Forecasters)

  10. Precipitation QC • Multiple Networks • Gage Types • LARC (NWS, tel.) • DCP (USGS, sat.) • IFLOWS (States) • METARS/Coops.CoCoRahs) • Large gage network (~1,500)

  11. Rain Gages • Most dense network • Well maintained • Some gages are winterized, others are NOT • Who maintains the gage? • Provide a very good (MAP) in stratiform / area wide events

  12. HAS Quality Control • Typical Problems: • Wind: 1% for every mph (sustained) – Can really under-catch in tropical / windy events • Freezing rain / wet snow • Funnels • Rainfall intensity • Leaves, wasps, birds, human tampering, communication problems, etc... • Budget issues • Convection between gages

  13. Requirements: QPF SIX HOUR (distribution) Basin Averaged Amounts Future Precipitation (48-72 hrs) Main focus 0-12 hour time frame Rain vs snow, sleet, freezing rain Temperature data (snow model) Observed rainfall (MPE) & gages AGUS71 KRHA 091425 HMDRHA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 925 AM EST TUE MAR 09 2004 PRECIP DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SCATTERED AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH. PRECIP WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE SUSQUEHANNA AND VIRGINIA, WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IN NJ AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER DELAWARE BASINS. THE FORECAST COASTAL STORM SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH LIE INLAND. AS A RESULT, QPF IS LIGHT AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WFO RALEIGH - GIVE US A CALL IF WE CAN BE OF ANY ASSISTANCE AS YOU BACKUP BLACKSBURG'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICES. MARFC FORECAST OPERATIONS ARE RUNNING ON SCHEDULE. WNEK $$ ... END MARFC ... HASRiver Forecast Model Input

  14. HPC’s Role with MARFC • QPF Experts • Guidance • Support • Coordination (during significant hydro-meteorological QPF events) • MARFC routinely uses HPC’s 12Z, 18Z and 00Z QPF guidance • HAS forecasters may tweak the QPF mainly in the first two – six hour periods • MARFC HAS forecasters rarely (if ever) change HPC Day-2 QPF

  15. In Summary…HAS Duties & Quality Control Responsibilities • Short term – Input QPF into Hydro model (API Continuous) & collaborate with HPC and WFOs as needed. QC large rain gage network & QC hourly MPE data. Monitor 88D rainfall estimates and compare with ground truth. Temperature data…important during winter season. • Long term – notify maintenance contacts (NWS WFOs, US Geological Survey, Corps of Engineers & State agencies. Event reviews after significant event.

  16. Recent Changes to MARFC / HAS Operations Multi-Precipitation Estimates Implemented at MARFC

  17. MPE: Multisensor Precipitation Estimation (MAPX) • Combination of Radar AND Gages with all the inherent qualities of both • Currently (MAPX) used in MARFC Hydro Operations (API-Continuous) • MAPX implemented Dec 2008 • Best in liquid precip • Better results in warm season vs cold season • Uses QC’d hourly data • Increased areal coverage and resolution vs gages alone • Manual editing necessary to Quality control bad gages, bright banding, radar calibration, ground clutter , etc… • Recent successes using MAPX!!!!

  18. Recent successes using MAPX!!!! Neshaminy Creek at Langhorne, Pa. June 13th 2009 (Case Study)

  19. Drainage Area ~ 200 sq. mi. Rolling Hills (headwaters) Gently sloping (lower reaches) Stream bed: gravel & rock Flood stage: 9 feet

  20. Langhorne Basin • 6/13/09 18Z • 18Z Precip reports (6HR) • HAS Briefing: More heavy rain expected in same location • Very little or no rain in the gages

  21. 18Z6/13/09 All Radars Storm Total Precip (in)METAR6 HR Precip

  22. 17Z – 19Z

  23. 20Z6/13/09 Mid section of basin has heavy rain • Little Neshaminy Creek is getting the heaviest rainfall • 1 hr MPE max: 2.25”

  24. First Langhorne Forecast • Issued ~ 5pm (21z) • Crest of 9.2 ft @ 10PM • Remark: Crest 8.5 – 10.5 ft this evening • Langhorne stage was ~ 1.8 ft • Flood stage is 9 feet

  25. 21z 6/13/09 Additional0.75” – 1.25” over Little Neshaminy Creek & Lower Neshaminy Based off MPE

  26. MPE 4 Hour Accumulation 18 Z – 21 Z 6/13/09 Highest Pixel = 4.65 in Little Neshaminy and Lower Neshaminy 2.25 – 3.25 in

  27. Penns Park still rising at 11,300 cfs 6,780 cfs Rushland 4,910 cfs and rising

  28. Ending at 00Z • 6HR MPE Storm Total 3 – 5 inches • 6HR METARs KNXX 3.76 KLOM 2.94 KDYL M

  29. MAP ending 00Z = 0.75 High METAR values not included in MAP calculations

  30. 6 HR MAPX ending at 00Z MAPX = 1.75-2.00 in

  31. Meteorology Review(a.k.a why all this water?) • 18Z 6/13/09 well developed trough formed in the lee of the mountains over southeast Pennsylvania separating a very unstable airmass to the southeast with surface dewpoints of 65 to 70 deg F with a more stable airmass to the northwest. • Inverted trough had very good cyclonic convergence plus speed convergence from the southeast • Weak Steering Winds • Upper level winds were out of the southwest and nearly parallel to the thunderstorm complex that formed • Back building noted on radar loop • PW’s about 1 standard deviation above normal • Convergent low level winds continued to feed the inflow and allowed for development to continue after the thunderstorm complex reached maturity.

  32. Mesoscale Model: WRF-ARW 4KM • 4KM Domain centered over PA • 4 cycles: 00/06/12/18 • 12hr forecast w/1hr resolution • Housed on Linux cluster (dual 2.4GHz/2GB) • Benchmark: 6min/1hr tile & completion 54mins. • Init. Boundary/Lateral conditions: RUC13 • Forecast Boundary/Lateral conditions: NAM12 • Kain-Fritsch Parameterizations • Lin et al. scheme Microphysics • 45-levels produced w/model top at 50hPA • Levels focused within 0-6km of sfc • Long/Short Radiation Scheme: RRTM/Dudhia

  33. MARFC Staff Comments • MAPX was the first indicator that something was going to happen. • Crest-stage relationships were key to early forecasts. Without this info we would have been chasing the flood. • Good communication with WFO PHI. • Two key precipitation gages were not available in DHQC (KDYL and KNXX). • MAPX “filled in the gaps.”

  34. Future RFC Enhancements Coming to a NWS office near you!

  35. And they are… • Retirement of NWSRFS • Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) • RFC’s moving into the “gridded world” • Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) initially to be used for QPF and future temperature forecasts (forcing in Hydro model) • More daily & longer duration forecasts (72 hrs.) • Using ensembles to forecast uncertainty • Longer QPF periods????

  36. QPF Verification GPRA+ Goal

  37. Questions Questions?

  38. Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center 328 Innovation Blvd Ste 330 State College, Pa. 16801 814-231-2403 (Direct Line) Theodore.rodgers@noaa.gov David.solano@noaa.gov

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