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Transboundary Pollution Issues are of Growing Importance. S-Deposition. RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001). How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?. Need to assess inter-model variability. The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison
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RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)
Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.
Main model focus
Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)
(Yonsei Univ.-Sulfur Acid Dep. Model)
Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions
CRIEPI trajectory model
CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark)
Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan)
RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model
Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies
Osaka Prefecture University (Japan)
(Osaka Prefecture Univ.)
CGRER, University of Iowa
Episodic and long-term studies
CGRER, University of Iowa
Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships.
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances
Kanghwa (left) and Tsushima (right)
Spatial resolution is 1 deg on upper and 30 sec on bottom
Bias (abs [obs.-calc.]/calc.*100) of model calculated quantities for
the month of January. (Task A)
by monitoring site. (Task A)
(January 1-10) calculated by the participating models.(Task A)
Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)
together) and contributions due to each process over selected
target regions. (Left: S. Korea; Right Central China)
Upper panels: results from Task B. Lower panels: Task A vs. Task B.
Shown are the frequency distribution of all 3-hour end points
over the entire month of trajectories originated at the receptor.
Interannual Variability (10-yrs)
on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than
Changes in Emissions!
Is there climate feedback link?
Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation--compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications
Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters
Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NOx with the involvement of CO and CH4
Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly HgRegional Air Pollution Issues
% of Total Deposition as Nitrate
Deposition of Dust Plays an Important Role in Neutralizing Acid Deposition
The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200 mgrams/m3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations (http://www.ess.uci.edu/~oliver/tracep/airqual/index.html). The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems
Spring 2001 Experiments
The Long Range Transport of Dust is a Well Recognized Phenomena in East Asia---
Pollution is Transported the Same Way!!
Dust (Pink) and Sulfate
Dust and CO
April 08, 2001
A comparison between the CFORS predictions and that observed by satellite (TOMS-AI)
Pressures are from the Pacific Rim
Countries and beyond.
Changing patterns and growth rates
of energy use and resulting
emissions are the primary forcing
with East and West
following different paths.
Impacts are local, regional (East
and West), basin
wide, and global.
Complexities in transport and
chemistry over the Pacific greatly
challenge present modeling and
BAU – ca 1990’s
New Two-Zone Control Policy
Din China’s emissions (2000 – 1995)
Total global fossil fuel emission ca~1995
Change in China’s emissions as % of global total anthropogenic fuel combustion
Temp. Response function
Change in global temperaturesdue to changes in China’s emissions between 1995 and 2000
S = +0.012
Air Pollution and Climate Issues are Intimately Linked
between 1975 and 2000.
obs. pointThe Role of Chemical Weather Forecasting is of Growing Importance
Simulated Kosa Onset April 98
Surface level SO42-