Climate Change Adaptation: Crop Choice. Crop Choice. As climate changes, net revenues of plants change Crops move along their climate response function Crop Models often assume no response despite falling productivity. Farmer’s Switch Crops.
Look at choices that they are making now in current climate.
See how these choices change depending on local climate.
Build model of crop choice.
Farmer Crop Mix
Climate (temperature and precipitation)
Key Assumptions adapt?
Climate is exogenous
Farmer cannot change climate at farm
Farmers doing what is in their “best interest”
Maximize their net benefits
Farmer’s crop choice is best choice given local conditions.
Hands-on Exercise adapt?
Sample: 8,000+ farmers across China
1) How does climate affect the choice to grow rice?
2) How does climate affect all crop choices in China?
2) Multinomial logit regression