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Crop Outlook for 2012

Crop Outlook for 2012. Ackley State Bank Ag Seminar Iowa Falls, Iowa Dec. 14, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Projected Corn Yields.

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Crop Outlook for 2012

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  1. Crop Outlook for 2012 Ackley State Bank Ag Seminar Iowa Falls, Iowa Dec. 14, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 12/13/2011

  9. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  10. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  11. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  12. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Change of Export Pace

  14. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  15. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

  16. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  17. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  18. Biodiesel Production Source: DOE-EIA

  19. Biodiesel Margins Source: CARD

  20. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  21. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  22. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  26. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  27. States with Room to Grow Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

  28. Iowa Crop Margins

  29. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns • Supply/demand concerns • Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops, worries about dry conditions • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Corn has the upper hand in the acreage competition • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.40; Soy $11.70 • Futures (as of 12/13/11): Corn $5.74; Soy $11.14 • 2012/13: Futures (as of 12/13/11): Corn $5.39; Soy $11.05

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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