2009 Business Outlook Summit The Louisiana (and Northeast Louisiana) Economy Prepared and presented by : John Francis, PHD Assistant Professor of Economics (Louisiana Tech University) Robert Eisenstadt, PhD Associate Professor of Economics (University of LA – Monroe).
(and Northeast Louisiana)
Prepared and presented by:
John Francis, PHD
Assistant Professor of Economics (Louisiana Tech University)
Robert Eisenstadt, PhD
Associate Professor of Economics (University of LA – Monroe)
for review on-line at:
Louisiana Gross State Product ($millions): The illusion of our insularity.
The importance of oil in Louisiana’s growth. our insularity.
GDP Growth and Oil Prices (index)
Employment by the Numbers our insularity.
Louisiana employment growth has been relatively strong. our insularity.
Employment data from LA Dept. Of Labor; and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
LA Dept. of Labor, Laworks.net
The relative performance of Northeast Louisiana. comparison).
OLM = Ouachita, Lincoln, Morehouse Parishes
Wage and salary disbursements: US, LA, Monroe. comparison).
Where there is no housing bubble, there is probably no housing bust.
Top ten and bottom ten states for home price appreciation: 2000-2006.
Louisiana home prices have remained relatively stable. housing bust.
Bismarck, ND +15%
Ft. Meyers, FL -43%
Data from National Association of Realtors, Northeast Louisiana Realtors Association.
Louisiana currently ranks 41 inflation.st in foreclosure rate.
NV is #1 WV is #50
National data from RealtyTrac
New Residential Construction – Permit Value inflation.
Permit data from U.S. Census Bureau; and McGraw Hill MarketTrack
Louisiana lags the Nation in bankruptcies. inflation.
U.S. Courts: U.S. Dept. of Justice
Seasonal sales were stronger locally inflation.
Nov-Dec (seasonal) retail sales:Nation = -5.6%;LA = -1.4%;Ouachita = +1.2%
Data from Cross-Sell reports
From our perspective, there are two sources of concern when considering the long-term growth of Louisiana (and NE Louisiana).
Current indicated effect on State revenue of Louisiana tax policy change.
Percentage change in Louisiana Monthly Tax Revenues: January/February 2008 to 2009
Year over Year Tax Revenues (to date) by the Numbers policy change.
Tax burden (ranking) of Louisiana and surrounding states. policy change.
LA policy changes and the (approximate) annual effect on State tax revenue.
Return marginal tax brackets to pre-Stelly levels: -$300,000,000
Reinstate the deductibility of excess Federal Itemized: -$250,000,000
Oil prices budgeted at $84/bbl.
Current actual price = $50/bbl
Shortfall in severance taxes -$410,000,000
Total estimated shortfall -$960,000,000
Add to this amount the effect of a declining tax base (recession) and you have the proverbial “billion here, billion there…”