2009 Business Outlook Summit
Sponsored Links
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
1 / 32

2009 Business Outlook Summit The Louisiana (and Northeast Louisiana) Economy PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 99 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

2009 Business Outlook Summit The Louisiana (and Northeast Louisiana) Economy Prepared and presented by : John Francis, PHD Assistant Professor of Economics (Louisiana Tech University) Robert Eisenstadt, PhD Associate Professor of Economics (University of LA – Monroe).

Download Presentation

2009 Business Outlook Summit The Louisiana (and Northeast Louisiana) Economy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


2009 Business Outlook Summit

The Louisiana

(and Northeast Louisiana)

Economy

Prepared and presented by:

John Francis, PHD

Assistant Professor of Economics (Louisiana Tech University)

Robert Eisenstadt, PhD

Associate Professor of Economics (University of LA – Monroe)


The following presentation will be available

for review on-line at:

cba.ulm.edu/cber


Louisiana Gross State Product ($millions): The illusion of our insularity.


The importance of oil in Louisiana’s growth.

GDP Growth and Oil Prices (index)


Employment by the Numbers


Louisiana employment growth has been relatively strong.

Employment data from LA Dept. Of Labor; and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Employment growth is mostly positive across the State (qtr 2 comparison).

LA Dept. of Labor, Laworks.net


The relative performance of Northeast Louisiana.

OLM = Ouachita, Lincoln, Morehouse Parishes


Wage and salary disbursements: US, LA, Monroe.


Where there is no housing bubble, there is probably no housing bust.

Top ten and bottom ten states for home price appreciation: 2000-2006.


Louisiana home prices have remained relatively stable.

Bismarck, ND +15%

Ft. Meyers, FL -43%


Average selling prices of existing homes adjusted for inflation.

Data from National Association of Realtors, Northeast Louisiana Realtors Association.


Louisiana currently ranks 41st in foreclosure rate.

Foreclosures:

NV is #1 WV is #50

National data from RealtyTrac


The market for existing homes in NE Louisiana.


Home building in Louisiana mostly mirrors the Nation.


New Residential Construction – Permit Value

Permit data from U.S. Census Bureau; and McGraw Hill MarketTrack


Construction employment in LA, however, remains stable.

  • Nearly 20% annual increase in Civil Engineering projects.

  • Public projects expected in NE LA include:

    • Delta Community College

    • New Airport Terminal


Louisiana lags the Nation in bankruptcies.

U.S. Courts: U.S. Dept. of Justice


Non-Business Bankruptcies


NE LA and the Nation are on the same general retail track


Seasonal sales were stronger locally

Nov-Dec (seasonal) retail sales:Nation = -5.6%;LA = -1.4%;Ouachita = +1.2%


Motor vehicle sales are weak: US = -15.8%, LA sales = -15.6%

-15.6%

-12.8%

-17.0%

Data from Cross-Sell reports


Estimated value of auto purchases by Ouachita Parish residents.


Relative economic strength is by no means a certainty in Louisiana

From our perspective, there are two sources of concern when considering the long-term growth of Louisiana (and NE Louisiana).

  • Out-migration of population

  • Year-to-year uncertainty (volatility) of State tax revenues


We have shipped more people out of Louisiana than we've attracted


Population growth is weak or even non-existent


Our 8-year trend is well behind the Nation.


Current indicated effect on State revenue of Louisiana tax policy change.

Percentage change in Louisiana Monthly Tax Revenues: January/February 2008 to 2009


Year over Year Tax Revenues (to date) by the Numbers


Tax burden (ranking) of Louisiana and surrounding states.


LA policy changes and the (approximate) annual effect on State tax revenue.

Return marginal tax brackets to pre-Stelly levels:-$300,000,000

Reinstate the deductibility of excess Federal Itemized:-$250,000,000

Subtotal-$550,000,000

Oil prices budgeted at $84/bbl.

Current actual price = $50/bbl

Shortfall in severance taxes -$410,000,000

Total estimated shortfall-$960,000,000

Add to this amount the effect of a declining tax base (recession) and you have the proverbial “billion here, billion there…”


  • Next up:

  • Determinants of State Tax Revenue Variability.

  • Labor Out-migration by Education and Skill Level.


  • Login