indonesia e conomic outlook 20 10 11 faisal basri 29 juli 2010
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 45

INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 149 Views
  • Uploaded on

INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010. Part I The World Economy. The world economic outlook, 2009-2011. * Projection Source s : IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010. Leading economic indocators kian membaik. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010' - lana-burnett


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
the world economic outlook 2009 2011
The world economic outlook, 2009-2011

* Projection

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010

oil prices have roughly doubled since feb
Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) August 2010

03:58 p.m EDT

US$76.81 =

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

  • Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118
  • Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134
  • Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145
  • Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
  • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
oil prices and stock market
Oil prices and stock market

=10,497.88

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

oil prices and gold dec comex
Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex)

=$1165.9

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

the financialization of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest
The “financialization” of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest

Remarks by John Lipsky (IMF) At the 4th OPEC International SeminarVienna, March 18, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/pdf/031809.pdf)

now governments are the problems
Now … governments are the problems

Maastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP

- Debt/GDP ratio < 60%

economic temperature cooler
Economic temperature cooler ..

Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %

Target BI: 5% + 1%

18.4

14.6

percent

5.0

4.6

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: BPS.

inflation remains high in the region
Inflation remains high in the region

August inflation, y.o.y

Source: World Bnak, September 2009

bi rate bertahan di 6 5 persen
BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen

Sampai akhir tahun berpotensi menuju 7%

Source: Bank Indonesia.

belanja pemerintah masih seret
Belanja pemerintah masih seret

Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas.

Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.

heart beat has been appreciating
Heart beat has been appreciating ...

(Rupiah per US$)

Source: Bank Indonesia

foreign reserves increased more than 7 bil
Foreign reserves increasedmore than $7bil.

(US$ million)

Source: Bank Indonesia.

foreign ownership in bonds and sbis
Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIs

Source: Bank Indonesia and MoF.

balance of payments us million
Balance of payments (US$ million)

Source: Bank Indonesia.

indonesia s post crisis journey
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

6.6

6.4

5.7

5.4

4.2

Gus Dur:

“Erratic/shaky”

Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration

Crisis peak

SBY: Throws away

Momentum, and then made correction

Pertumbuhan semester II sekitar 6.5%, sehingga rata-rata tahun ini sekitar 6.3%

Source: BPS.

low quality sectoral growth rate 2000 base year year on year growth rate
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)

Source: BPS.

low quality growth 2000 200 9
Low quality growth, 2000-2009*(%)

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

Source: BPS.

gdp growth by expenditure y o y
GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %)

* First quarter

Source: BPS..

foreign merchandise trade
Foreign merchandise trade

Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m)

Billion US$

Growth (yoy)

Description

* January-May

Source: BPS.

trade balance indonesia china non oil gas
Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas)

US$ million

*January-April

Sources: BPS

indonesia foreign visitors arrivals
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals

Visitors:

2008 = 6,234,497

2009 = 6,323,730

2010 (Jan-May) = 2,767,122

Growth:

Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63%

Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43%

Jan-May 2010 (y-o-y) = 14.6%

2008

2009

2010

Sources:BPS

red shirts make bloody protest
Red shirts make bloody protest

MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3461303/Thai-protesters-pour-blood

protestors burn churches in malaysia
Protestors burn churches in Malaysia

January

2010

In God\'s name?

A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15271154

menuju keseimbangan politik baru
Menuju keseimbangan politik baru?
  • Perubahan dalam koalisi yang disertai dengan perombakan kabinet.
  • “Disiplin” koalisi: sehingga akan lebih lugas antara partai-partai koalisi dan partai-partai oposisi.
  • Pengungkapan borok-borok masa lalu: positif untuk pembersihan?
faktor faktor pengerem
Faktor-faktor pengerem
  • Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014.
  • Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN.
  • Kekompakan kabinet terganggu.
  • Kompromi-kompromi politik
  • Agenda populisme mengedepan.
  • Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan drastik.
projections of gdp by expenditure
Projections of GDP by expenditure

* Actual

** Projection

Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.

projections of gdp by sector
Projections of GDP by sector

*Projection

Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.

terima kasih

Terima Kasih

Email: [email protected]

Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri

ad