Indonesia e conomic outlook 20 10 11 faisal basri 29 juli 2010
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INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010. Part I The World Economy. The world economic outlook, 2009-2011. * Projection Source s : IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010. Leading economic indocators kian membaik. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

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INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010

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INDONESIA:ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-11Faisal Basri29 Juli 2010


Part IThe World Economy


The world economic outlook, 2009-2011

* Projection

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010


Leading economic indocatorskianmembaik


Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) August 2010

03:58 p.m EDT

US$76.81 =

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

  • Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118

  • Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134

  • Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145

  • Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150

  • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.


Oil prices and stock market

=10,497.88

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html


Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex)

=$1165.9

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html


The “financialization” of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest

Remarks by John Lipsky (IMF) At the 4th OPEC International SeminarVienna, March 18, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/pdf/031809.pdf)


Now … governments are the problems

Maastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP

- Debt/GDP ratio < 60%


Bagian IIPerekonomian Indonesia


Economic temperature cooler ..

Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %

Target BI: 5% + 1%

18.4

14.6

percent

5.0

4.6

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: BPS.


Inflation remains high in the region

August inflation, y.o.y

Source: World Bnak, September 2009


BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen

Sampai akhir tahun berpotensi menuju 7%

Source: Bank Indonesia.


Money market rates vs. BI rate


Anomali ….


Level of credits to GDP, 2009


Perbandingansektorkeuangandi Asia-pasifik


Belanja pemerintah masih seret

Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas.

Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.


Heart beat has been appreciating ...

(Rupiah per US$)

Source: Bank Indonesia


Foreign reserves increasedmore than $7bil.

(US$ million)

Source: Bank Indonesia.


Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIs

Source: Bank Indonesia and MoF.


Balance of payments (US$ million)

Source: Bank Indonesia.


Indonesia’s post-crisis journey

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

6.6

6.4

5.7

5.4

4.2

Gus Dur:

“Erratic/shaky”

Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration

Crisis peak

SBY: Throws away

Momentum, and then made correction

Pertumbuhan semester II sekitar 6.5%, sehingga rata-rata tahun ini sekitar 6.3%

Source: BPS.


Low quality — Sectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)

Source: BPS.


Low quality growth, 2000-2009*(%)

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

Source: BPS.


GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %)

* First quarter

Source: BPS..


Foreign merchandise trade

Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m)

Billion US$

Growth (yoy)

Description

* January-May

Source: BPS.


Foreign merchandise trade: monthly


Composition of imports (%, Jan-May 2010)


Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas)

US$ million

*January-April

Sources: BPS


Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals

Visitors:

2008 = 6,234,497

2009 = 6,323,730

2010 (Jan-May) = 2,767,122

Growth:

Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63%

Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43%

Jan-May 2010 (y-o-y) = 14.6%

2008

2009

2010

Sources:BPS


Indeks tendensi konsumen

Source: BPS.


Indeks tendensi bisnis

Source: BPS.


Bagian IIIPeluangdanTantanganPemerintahanBaru


Red shirts make bloody protest

MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3461303/Thai-protesters-pour-blood


Protestors burn churches in Malaysia

January

2010

In God's name?

A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15271154


Menuju keseimbangan politik baru?

  • Perubahan dalam koalisi yang disertai dengan perombakan kabinet.

  • “Disiplin” koalisi: sehingga akan lebih lugas antara partai-partai koalisi dan partai-partai oposisi.

  • Pengungkapan borok-borok masa lalu: positif untuk pembersihan?


Faktor-faktor pengerem

  • Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014.

  • Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN.

  • Kekompakan kabinet terganggu.

  • Kompromi-kompromi politik

  • Agenda populisme mengedepan.

  • Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan drastik.


Bagian IVProspek 2010-14


Projections of GDP by several agencies


Projections of GDP by expenditure

* Actual

** Projection

Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.


Projections of GDP by sector

*Projection

Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.


Indonesia: selected economic indicators


Terima Kasih

Email: [email protected]

Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri


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