The 2011 Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA) An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011

1. Dublin, August 2012 The 2011 Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA)An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011

2. The 2011 Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA) This presentation contains a graphic display of the latest index scores for the Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA) The presentation comprises three parts: A comparison at NUTS 1-4 level of the key social indicators which underlie the HP Deprivation Index, spanning five census waves 1991 to 2011 SA-level maps for the 2011 key indicators, and SA-level maps for the 2006 and 2011 absolute and relative deprivation scores For a description of the conceptual underpinnings and statistical features of the HP Deprivation Index, please consult separate presentations

3. Overview of Successive Deprivation Indices, Haase & Pratschke 1996 - 2012 Haase et al., 1996 Haase, 1999 Pratschke & Haase, 2001 Pratschke & Haase, 2004 Haase & Pratschke, 2005 Haase & Pratschke, 2008 Haase & Pratschke, 2010 Haase & Pratschke, 2012 Haase & Pratschke, 2011

4. Comparing Key Social Indicators • across five Census Waves • 1991 - 2011

5. The Underlying Dimensions of Social Disadvantage • Demographic Decline(predominantly rural) • population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population) • Social Class Deprivation(applying in rural and urban areas) • social class composition, education, housing quality • Labour Market Deprivation(predominantly urban) • unemployment, lone parents, low skills base

6. Population Change1991 - 2011 • 30 per cent increase between 1991 and 2011 • Initial growth faster in S&E Region • Since 2006, faster growth in BMW Region

7. Age Dependency Rate1991 - 2011 • 7 percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006 • Rural areas gradually catching up • Reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011, with Age Dependency Rate again increasing

8. Lone Parent Rate1991 - 2011 • Doubling in rate between 1991 and 2006 • Highly concentrated in urban areas • Further increase in rural areas between 2006 and 2011 • Reversal in trend after 2006 in all cities except Cork

9. Proportion of Adult Population with Primary Education Only 1991 - 2011 • 50% reduction between 1991 and 2006 • Rural areas gradually catching up • Trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

10. Proportion of Adult Population with Third Level Education1991 - 2011 • 2½ - fold increase between 1991 and 2006 • Urban areas maintaining their relative advantage • Only marginal increase in select areas between 2006 and 2011 • Other areas experiencing first marginal decline

11. Proportion of Population in Higher and Lower Professional Classes1991 - 2011 • 30% increase between 1991 and 2006 • Rural areas slowly catching up during boom years • Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011 • But urban-rural differential is again growing

12. Proportion of Population in Unskilled and Semi-skilled Classes1991 - 2011 • Sharp 40% decline between 1991 and 2006 • Rural areas rapidly catching up • Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

13. Male Unemployment rate1991 - 2011 • Rapid decline between 1991 and 2002, halving rates • Rural areas not fully participating in trend • Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas • 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all counties except Dublin City

14. Female Unemployment rate1991 - 2011 • Steady decline between 1991 and 2002, nearly halving rates • Decline in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas • Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas • 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in most counties

15. Local Authority Housing1991 - 2011 • Significant decline between 1991 and 2002, particularly in Southern & Eastern Region • Reversal in trend after 2002, with slow increases pertaining since • Imbalance between rural and urban provision gradually diminishing

16. Privately rented Housing1991 - 2011 • Strongly concentrated in the cities • Steady increase between 1991 and 2006, in both urban and rural counties • Steep increase between 2006 and 2011

17. Owner occupied Housing1991 - 2011 • Rates in rural counties much higher than in urban counties • Steady decline between 1991 and 2006 • Accelerated decline between 2006 and 2011, in both urban and rural locations

18. Average Number of Persons per Room1991 - 2011 • Significant improvement over time • Rural densities falling below urban for the first time in 2002 • Urban densities remain unchanged after 2006, but rural densities continue to fall

19. Mapping Key Social Indicators (SA) • 2011 • The following maps are broadly based on quintile distributions of each of the ten indicators which underlie the Pobal HP Deprivation Index

20. 5 Year Population Change2006- 2011 • Strongest growth in urban peripheries • Strongest decline in (remote) rural areas

21. Age Dependency Rate2011 • Lower rates in urban peripheries • Highest rates in (remote) rural areas

22. Lone Parent Rate2011 • Overwhelmingly urban phenomenon • Reaching over 50% in disadvantaged city areas

23. Proportion of Adult Population with Primary Education Only 2011 • Lowest in urban periphery • Highest in remote rural areas • Cities containing both extremes

24. Proportion of Adult Population with Third Level Education2011 • Mirror image of low education • Highest in urban periphery • Lowest in remote rural areas • Cities containing both extremes

25. Proportion of Population in Higher and Lower Professional Classes2011 • Similar to high education • Highest in urban periphery • Lowest in remote rural areas • Cities containing both extremes

26. Proportion of Population in Unskilled and Semi-skilled Classes2011 • Mirror image to professional classes • Lowest in urban periphery • Highest in remote rural areas • Cities containing both extremes

27. Male Unemployment rate2011 • The spatial distribution of male unemployment rates increasingly reflect the social class composition of local areas • Munster shows relatively favourable labour market conditions

28. Female Unemployment rate2011 • Female unemployment rates in 2011 closely resemble male unemployment rates in their spatial distribution

29. Local Authority Housing2011 • Primarily associated with disadvantaged urban areas

30. Privately rented Housing2011 • Exclusively urban with considerable presence in affluent areas

31. Owner occupied Housing2011 • Predominantly rural • Low urban rates are not necessarily related to social disadvantage

32. Average Number of Persons per Room2011 • High rates in the average number of persons per room are a predominantly urban phenomenon

33. The Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA) • Small Area Analysis, 2006 - 2011

34. Basic Model of the Pobal HP Deprivation Index d Age Dependency Rate 1 Demographic d Population Change Growth 2 d Primary Education only 3 d Third Level Education 4 d Persons per Room Social Class 5 Composition d Professional Classes 6 d Semi- and Unskilled Classes 7 d Lone Parents 8 Labour Market d Male Unemployment Rate Situation 9 d Female Unemployment Rate 10

35. Mapping Deprivation most disadvantaged most affluent

36. Absolute Index Scores2006

37. Absolute Index Scores2011

38. Comparison of Absolute Deprivation Scores, 1991 and 2006 • Shows the massive increase in disadvantage in wake of the recession after the 2006 Census, affecting literally every part of the country.

39. Relative Index Scores2006

40. Relative Index Scores2011

41. Comparison of Relative Deprivation Scores, 1991 and 2006 • The pattern between affluence and disadvantage, whereby affluence is greatest in the urban peripheries and gradually declining towards more rural locations, remains broadly intact. • There is some indication that the reach of the affluent commuter belts has somewhat diminished. • Within the Greater Dublin Area, there is some shift in the location of the most affluent areas. Whereas in 2006 the Western part of the Region scored high in affluence, in 2011 this is again primarily concentrated in Dun Laoghaire / Rathdown.

42. Change in Relative Index Scores2006-2011