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On the Other Hand. Wisconsin Economics Association. Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development November 8, 2013. ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES. 2. ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES. 3.

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Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development

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Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

On the Other Hand

Wisconsin Economics Association

Dennis Winters

Chief, Office of Economic Advisors

Department of Workforce Development

November 8, 2013


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

2


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

3


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

GDP = C + I + G + (I-M)


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

RECESSION COMPARISONSLAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS

6

Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

It is difficult to increase consumption

when you:

have stagnant income,

are losing wealth,

paying down debt,

increasing savings,

and are paying more for food and gas.


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

REAL ESTATE EQUITY

GETTING A NICE REBOUND


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SECURITIES’ APPRECIATION

IS GETTING US BACK OVER THE HUMP


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

MANAGING RISK

WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

JOBS GROWTH SCENARIOSCONTRAINTS ON ECONOMY

Thousands

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

Q1 ‘17

Q1 ‘15

Unemployment rates assume a participation rate of 63.5%

Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

WISCONSIN JOBS

ARE SHOWING A STEADY CLIMB


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

WISCONSIN MANUFACTURING JOBS

ARE ALSO ON THE UPTICK


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

WISCONSIN JOBS RECOVERYVERSUS PREVIOUS CYCLES

14


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

AGE COHORTSTREATED DIFFERENTLY

15

Source: OEA, BLS


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT

STEADIER WORK


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS

HAVE RECOVERED VALUE


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

OVERALL NON-CORPORATE PRIVATE

BALANCE SHEET IMPROVING


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

ON THE OTHER HAND


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SWAPPING

SECURITIES FOR CASH


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

EXTENDING CREDIT

BANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING

ON A NEW TRAJECTORY


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

He said,

She said.


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

HE SAID,

HEY BABE, LOOK THE ECONOMY IS GROWING NICELY


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SHE SAID,

WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO, DEAR


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

HE SAID

LOOK HONEY, HOUSING MARKET IS UP NICELY


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SHE SAID

SWEETHEART, WE’RE NEVER GETTING BACK THERE


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

HE SAID,

SUGAR, JOBS ARE CLIMBING

thousands


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SHE SAID,

DARLING, DON’T PISS OFF YOUR BOSS


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

HE SAID,

LOVE, THEY’RE JACKING UP WAGES EVERYWHERE

  • The minimum wage will increase in 10 states on January 1, 2013.

  • Employers to be more generous with pay raises next year, CNNMoney.

  • An improving job market is boosting wages, Herald and News.

  • SHRM consensus is for an average budget increase of 3 percent.

  • Hay Group says 3 percent salary increases in 2013.


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SHE SAID,

JIM, GET A GRIP


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

HE SAID,

DREAMBOAT, WE’RE GONNA BE RICH

INCOME GROWTH

(Q1:2010 – Q3:2012)

Source: BEA, OEA


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

SHE SAID,

WILL YOU WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

Who

is in

demand?


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

MOST JOB OPENINGS

BY OCCUPATION

*Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

MOST JOB OPENINGS

ON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGES

CHARACTERISTICS


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUE

FIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

Questions ?


Dennis winters chief office of economic advisors department of workforce development

CONTACT INFORMATION

  • Dennis Winters

  • Phone: 608-267-3262

  • Email: [email protected]

  • Website:www.dwd.wisconsin.gov

  • OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea


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