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Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section

Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section. User meeting 14-16 June 2006. Outline:. Monthly Forecast: Performance Verification information is available on web - New products are made available on the web Seasonal forecast:

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Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section

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  1. Monthly and Seasonal forecastsLaura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting 14-16 June 2006

  2. Outline: • Monthly Forecast: • Performance • Verification information is available on web • - New products are made available on the web • Seasonal forecast: • - Performance • - EUROSIP multi-model products in progress • - S3 verification/documentation in progress

  3. Performance over the Northern Extra-tropics ROC area of probability of 2-meter temperature in upper tercile Monthly Forecast Monthly Forecast Persistence of day 5-11 Persistence of day 5-18 Day 12-18 Day 19-32

  4. Monthly Forecast verification site: -

  5. Examples of verification Example of probabilistic scores: ROC Map

  6. Example of verification: Extreme cold over Russia

  7. Cold event over Europe

  8. Precipitation over India 08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06 An. Day 5-11 Day 12-18

  9. Indian monsoon Probability of precipitation in the upper tercile 27 real-time cases covering the period May-June-July-August 2002, 2003, 2004 , 2005 Monthly Forecast Persistence of the probabilities of the previous week DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32 DAY 12-18 ROC score: 0.580.49 ROC score: 0.460.48 ROC score: 0.640.49

  10. Precipitation over Africa 08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06 An. Day 5-11 Day 12-18

  11. African monsoon Probability of precipitation in the upper tercile 27 real-time cases covering the period May-June-July-August 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 Monthly Forecast 20W-25E, 0N-20N Persistence of the probabilities of the previous week DAY 12-18 DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32 ROC score: 0.590.54 ROC score: 0.540.49 ROC score: 0.530.49

  12. MJO real-time forecast Indian Ocean West. Hemis And Africa Maritime continent western Pacific

  13. MJO real-time forecast Stamp map of velocity potential at 200 hPa

  14. Nino3.4 Performance

  15. Performance during the most recent La Niña event

  16. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON ECMWF OBS: JJASON 2005 EUROSIP WNP ENP Atl

  17. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms 1993-2005Forecasts issued in June ECMWF: corr 0.70 EUROSIP: corr 0.75

  18. EUROSIP: Forecast start May 2005 Observed anomalies SST: JJA 2005

  19. Past performance (i): GPCP anomaly JJA 2005

  20. Forecast started Nov 2005: EUROSIP predictions for DJF 2006 over Europe: observed anomaly: mslp Prob (mslp > median) Prob (2m temp > median) 2m temp

  21. Forecast started Nov 2005: observed anomaly: Ecmwf predictions for DJF 2006 over Europe: mslp Prob (mslp < median) Prob (2m temp > median) 2m temp

  22. Seasonal forecast skill:

  23. Seasonal forecast skill:

  24. Skill comparison: S2 vs S3: S3 Operational (S2) Persistence

  25. Summary (1): Monthly Forecast: • Good performance over the Northern extra-tropics up to 19-32 days. • Good skill in predicting the Indian monsoon. • Prediction of the West African monsoon show less skill. • Verification is on the website and it is updated every week. • Additional products are made available on the web.

  26. Summary (2): Seasonal Forecast: • Good performance for the predictions of SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. • Tropical storm predictions show a good skill and this is enhanced by the EUROSIP multi-model system. • Neither the ECMWF or EUROSIP dynamical systems produced good predictions for the last winter (DJF 2005/06). • The skill of the seasonal forecast varies with regions and seasons. • Latest results from S3 indicate that the Niño predictions are generally improved.

  27. Past performance: Guinea Coast precipitation from May 2005 forecasts Ecmwf Météo France Met Office

  28. Ecmwf SST DJF 2006 Météo France Met Office

  29. 2m temp predictions for DJF 2006: i.c. Nov 05 ECMWF Météo France Observed anomalies Met Office

  30. mslp predictions for DJF 2006: i.c. Nov 05 ECMWF Observed anomalies Météo France Met Office

  31. Predictions of 2m temp anomalies over Southern Europe: Météo France Ecmwf Met Office

  32. NAO Predictions : Météo France Ecmwf Met Office

  33. DJF Correlation between:2m temp over (0-35E,10-30N) and Z 500hPa (1987-2003) Era 40 Met Office Ecmwf

  34. DJF Correlation between: 2m temp over (0-35E,10-30N) SST (1987-2003) Era 40 Met Office Ecmwf

  35. Tropical Storms: Monthly ForecastProbability of a tropical storm within 1 degree Day 10-32 Forecast starting on 4 August 2005 Model climatology starting on 4 July 1993-2004

  36. Cy 29r1 System 3 experimentation:10m zonal wind bias Too weak easterlies Cy 29r3 Oper. system MJJ (1987-2003) m 2-4

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