1 / 45

Half-Time 2012

Half-Time 2012. July 26, 2012 Portsmouth Country Club. Agenda. Exercise Your Brain Year-To-Date Market Review What to Watch the Rest of the Year Current Environment in Historical Context Words of Investing Wisdom. Questions. Are Always Welcome. Exercise Your Brain.

lalo
Download Presentation

Half-Time 2012

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Half-Time 2012 July 26, 2012 Portsmouth Country Club

  2. Agenda • Exercise Your Brain • Year-To-Date Market Review • What to Watch the Rest of the Year • Current Environment in Historical Context • Words of Investing Wisdom

  3. Questions Are Always Welcome

  4. Exercise Your Brain

  5. Exercise Your Brain How many times must you shuffle a deck of 52 playing cards in order to ensure it is truly scrambled? a) 5 b) 7 c) 9 d) 10 Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204826704577074501731476934.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_Lifestyle_5

  6. Exercise Your Brain If the world’s 7 billion people stood shoulder to shoulder, which of the following geographic areas is the smallest that could accommodate them? a) Zanzibar (about 650 square miles) b) Maui (about 727 square miles) c) Rhode Island (about 1,033 square miles) d) Sicily (about 9,925 square miles) Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21533364

  7. Exercise Your Brain Which state has the longest coastline? a) California b) Alaska c) Florida d) Texas Source: http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0770175.html

  8. Exercise Your Brain What country has the greatest number of active volcanoes? a) United States b) South America c) Japan d) Indonesia Source: http://www.scholastic.com/teachers/article/general-facts-about-volcanoes

  9. Year-To-Date Market Review

  10. Year-To-Date June 30, 2012 Market Review Domestic Stocks(1) 8.3% Foreign Stocks(2) 1.1% Gold 1.5% U.S. Dollar Index 1.8% 10-year Treasury Yield 8.3% Commodities(3) 3.7% Oil 14.0% Spain(4) 17.1% Sources: Yahoo! Finance; Barron’s; djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association, WSJ. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. 1) S&P 500, 2) DJ Global ex US, 3) DJ-UBS Commodity Index, 4) IBEX 35

  11. The United States of Europe?

  12. European Interest Rates European Rates Have Diverged Source: European Central Bank, Stefano Micossi

  13. European GDP Bail out Bail out Bail out Bail out Bail out

  14. So Who Pays For These Bailouts?

  15. U.S. Growth is Moderate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

  16. Employment Recovery Is Slow

  17. Still Missing 4.6M Jobs 4.3 mm Jobs Gained Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  18. What to Watch the Rest of the Year

  19. S&P 500 Corporate Earnings 2012 9.6% 2011 15.2% 2013 12.4% Estimate Actual 2010 44.9% Source: Zacks

  20. Inflation Under control… for now. Source: Lacono Research

  21. Home Sales The recent trend is up.

  22. Small Business Optimism Small business owners are more optimistic.

  23. Unemployment Rate Heading in the right direction.

  24. The “Fiscal Cliff”

  25. Budget Mix Revenue: $2,456bn (68%) Source: Congressional Budget Office

  26. “A budget tells us what we can't afford, but it doesn't keep us from buying it.” --William Feather

  27. Current Environment in Historical Context

  28. Slide Header

  29. How Do Market Bubbles Form?

  30. Slide Header

  31. Consumer Debt Strong Stock Market Weak Stock Market Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  32. Corporate Profits as % of GDP 10.1% 50-yr. avg.: 6.2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  33. Employment as % of Total Population Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 58.4% 1983

  34. Wages as % of GDP Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  35. Slide Header

  36. Reason for Optimism Source: Washington Post

  37. Up and Down

  38. Words of Investing Wisdom

  39. Words of Investing Wisdom “Look at (market) fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy—profit from folly rather than participate in it.” --Warren Buffett

  40. Words of Investing Wisdom “If you watch a basketball game and at the end of the game the score is 105 to 95, no one says, wait a second, in the third quarter, you lost 28 to 18, what was the story in the third quarter?” --Peter Lynch

  41. Words of Investing Wisdom “In the stock market, the only way to get a bargain is to buy what most investors are selling.” --Sir John Templeton

  42. Words of Investing Wisdom “It is learning to listen to the gloom and doom at bottoms and question it, and to the exultation at tops and question this as well, that makes a sharp investor.” --Jim Rogers

  43. Summary • Deleveraging is a long, drawn-out process • Europe is a wildcard • The U.S. is still a great country

  44. Remembering What’s Important

  45. Thank You For Your Continued Support! The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is not a guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor,. Member FINRA/SIPC

More Related