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Can the Thought & Logic of NFU Be Diffused to All Nuclear Weapon States?

Can the Thought & Logic of NFU Be Diffused to All Nuclear Weapon States?. Liu, Huaping Ph.D International Politics Department Beijing L & C University. Why China has been pursuing NFU policy since it possessed nuclear weapons?.

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Can the Thought & Logic of NFU Be Diffused to All Nuclear Weapon States?

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  1. Can the Thought & Logic of NFU Be Diffused to All Nuclear Weapon States? Liu, Huaping Ph.D International Politics Department Beijing L & C University

  2. Why China has been pursuing NFU policy since it possessed nuclear weapons? • Believing NWs was very unlikely to be used or threatened to use against China • To separate its own policy or attitude toward nuclear weapons from that of other nuclear countries and to comfort non-nuclear weapon states for positive political profile, understanding and support • Comparable weak & small nuclear power status • Culture reason: dislike to speak out the worst senior to avoid self-fulfilling prophecy

  3. Is there any pressure for NFU policy since 1964? What is the future of NFU in China? • Yes. Both from inside and outside of China. • Inside of China Rethinking of a long-lasting policy; Pressure from younger generation; Or also from military. • Outside of China Lonely situation; doubts; diversify security challenges.

  4. Though discussion or even doubts over NFU happens from time to time, China would not like to Change it in near future due to some stable factors remain unchanged, such as: • Profile of country; • Capability of nuclear force; • Specialty of nuclear weapons; • International nuclear deep cut; • And the continuity and inertia of an important policy.

  5. Is NFU a credible policy or just a slogan as some critics’ remarks as it is lack of verification? • Can a slogan be lasted for several decades? • How to testify a nuclear policy is a real policy, no matter First-Use or No-First-Use?

  6. Is it possible that the thought of NFU be diffused to other nuclear weapon states? • NFU by George Kennan in 1950 • China since 1964 • USSR declared in 1982 and Russia gave up in 1993 • 5 NWSs declared jointly not targeting at any countries with nuclear weapons in 2000 • China and Russia agreed mutual NFU and non-targeting at each other with strategic force through formal bilateral neighboring and cooperative treaty in 2001（Article 2). • India declared NUF with some exceptions（NWSs; Bio,Chemical weapon attacks）in 2003 • The US admits NFU with the conditions of complying with NPT NNWSs in NPR,in 2010.

  7. Conclusions • The thought and importance of the NFU has been recognized and accepted by more people and countries than it was in 1950s. This trend is very inspiring. • The logic from NFU to No-Use to Useless of nuclear weapons to disarmament is very clear. • Mutual and legalized NFU treaty or arrangement can be expected to greatly improve mutual confidence between or among nuclear countries.

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