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«Если вы не знаете, куда двигаться в рынке, возьмите японские свечи, они осветят Ваш путь…». АГРОСПИКЕР. Технический анализ зернового и масличного рынка. 1 9 марта 2007г. Зерновые Пшеница SRW Пшеница Milling #2 Кукуруза Ячмень Овес. Масличные Рапс MATIF (Европа) Рапс WCE (Канада)

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1 9 марта 2007г.

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1 9 2007

, , ,

19 2007.

  • SRW

  • Milling #2

  • MATIF ()

  • WCE ()

  • CRB Future Index. Grains & Oilseeds

  • CRB Future Index. Livestock

  • CRB Future Index. Energy

: 2007

New !

, www.futuresource.com . , , . , , .

/

- www.agrospeaker.ru


Wheat srw

.

. ( ) Wheat (SRW)

price c/bu ; usd/tn = c/bu / 2,72155 ; 1MT = 36,7437bu

460,6 c/bu(169,17$/MT ).

:

1. . \ 2006. : + 1,082 .. +1,55 ., 1,02 .., +0,432 .. , . . (. ) 7,966 .. 593,108 .. 3,4 ..

2. 2007/08 3 .. 624 .., .. 34 . 2006. , , , , , .

:

1. .

2.. . 118,828 .. (16,4%). / 16,6% - .

3. (.)

: 2007. (WK7) . (WH7).

. 460 c/bu . (1,2), . , , , .

. .

( / )


Matif 2 wheat milling 2

.

price EURO/MT

MATIF. ( #2 ) Wheat (Milling #2)

. .

.

( / )


1 9 2007

.

.

2007.

  • 2007 . 2007/08. , 2007. 56 . (+6,7 .) , , 15% . 80% - , . , , . 2007. , 10%. , 2007. . 2006/07 . 54 .. 2007/08., , 27 . 81 ..

  • 2007. FOB .

  • :

  • 65-70 ., . 2007. 75-80 .. ( ) , . , 2007. 48 . (+3,1 .), .


1 9 2007

.

price c/bu ; usd/tn = c/bu / 2,54012 ; 1MT = 39,36825 bu

. Corn

399,4 c/bu (157,24 USD/MT)

. . / .

+ 0,725 .., + 1,390 ., . + 1,380 ., 0,157 ..

/ = 10,8%. 1973 10,3%.

:

1. . , .

2. (. )

3. . 10% .

:

1. 0,725 . 693,148 ..

: . , . , . . . . .

( / )


1 9 2007

.

.

2007.

.

, , , . , 4 , .

, . . , , , . 2007/08. . CBOT.

: CBOT 5 $/MT.

CBOT + 5 $/MT, DAF + 10% ()

:

1. 3,5-4,0 ., . 2007. 4,0 6,0 .. , . , . (7-9 /) , . .


Wce barley

.

price CAD/MT

WCE. Barley

187,8 CAD/MT.

. . / .

44 .., + 0,5 ., . + 0,2 ., 0,552 ..

/ = 13,0% (-0,4%). 1995 . 11,9%. 1983. 8,7%.

:

1. 2006 . 2007. 6,055 .. 17,1% 13,0%.

2. , .

3. (.).

: . . . 2006. , , .

( / )


1 9 2007

.

.

2007.

(AFB) (-) 2008.

, .

. , . , , , .

:

1. 65-70 ., , 2007. 75-80 .. , .


Wce oats

.

price (cent/bu) USD/tn = c/bu / 1.4515 1MT = 68,894438 bu

WCE. Oats

274,4 (189,05 USD/MT)

. . / . 330 .., 50 ., . - 250 ., + 2 .. / = 11,3% (+0,1%). 1995 . 10,5%. 1986. 10,6%. 2,889 .. . 1982. .

:

1. 2006 . 2007. 2,063 .. 13,3% 11,3%.

2. . , .

3. , .

: . . . . . , .

( / )


Matif rapeseed

.

EURO//MT

MATIF. Rapeseed ()

258,75 /MT . . . / . + 250 .., . + 155 ., . / = 5,3% (+0,0%). 2003 . 4,1%. 1964. 1,8%.

:

1. , .

:

1. -25 22 .. .

2. .

: . , . , .

( / )


Wce rapeseed canola

.

CAD/MT

WCE. Rapeseed (Canola) -

. 359,4 CAD/MT.

: . . . .

9,1 . (), 6 . .

( / )


Soybeans

.

price c/bu ; usd/tn = c/bu / 2,72155 ; 1 th = 36,7437 bu

. Soybeans

: 739,0 c/bu (271,54 USD/MT) 746,4 c/bu ( 274,25 USD/MT)

. . / .

+ 1 .., . + 1,066 ., + 66 .. / = 19,6% (+0,0%). 57,5 .. . 1990- .

:

1. 1,066 ..

2. 2007, . 5$/bu, 4,1$/Bu, 11$/bu 7,4$/Bu. : 1 504 $/ 9,36 / 408,2 c/bu; - 787 $/ 2,87 / 746,4 c/bu. .. 2 .

:

1. 2006. 2007. , / 18,9% 19,6%.

2. 229,398 . 1 ..

3. .

: . . .

( / )


Soybean oil

.

price (cent/lbs) ; usd/tn = c/lbs*22.046

. SoybeanOil

30,77 c/lbs ( 678,36 USD/MT)

. . / .

0,686 ., + 0,109 .., . + 0,292 ., - 0,613 .. / = 5,9% (-1,4%). . 1970 . 5,8%. 1996. 1990- .

:

1. . . / 7,3% 5,9%. 0,613 ..

2. 2007, .

3.

: . . .

( / )


Soybean meal

.

usd/mt

. SoybeanMeal

218,0 USD/MT.

. . / .

+ 0,402 .., . + 0,115 ., + 48 .. / = 2,3% (+0,1%).

1990- .

:

1. .

2. , .

:

1. / 2,2% 2,3%.

: . , . , 215 USD/MT.

( / )


1 9 2007

.

.

2007.

. , .

. , , , . , . .

:

1. 7 . ( 5,4 . , 0,8 . , 0,8 . ) , , 2007. , . 30 /.


Denatured fuel ethanol

.

price USD/GALLON ; usd/ = USD/GL * 0.2642 ; 1 Gallon = 3,7854

Denatured Fuel Ethanol

, . , .

: , .

( / )


Crb future indexes grains oilseeds

.

CRB Future IndexesGrains & Oilseeds -


Crb future indexes livestock

.

CRB Future IndexesLivestock -


Crb future indexes energy

.

CRB Future IndexesEnergy -


1 9 2007

.


1 9 2007

.

,

  • . 2016.

    • 268 358 . - 90 . (+33,6%) . :

    • 2006/07 - 54,6 . ; 2007/08 81,3 . ; 2016. - 110 ..

  • 2006-2013 .

    • 13 .

    • 2013 . 19 ..

    • .

  • .

    • :

    • . ( )

    • 60% . 5 /. . . . .

    • :

    • .

    • , 30 / .

    • 96,875 . , 31,041 . (32%) . 10,8% 1,1 . 10,36 . . . , , 96,5% .

    • 60% 7,67 . 12,75 . , .

    • 43,8% 26 . 59,5 ..

    • 7% , 24% . . 2007. .


1 9 2007

.

. 2016.

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

.

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: , , .

. ( ..) :

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

.

. 2016.

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

.

. 2016.

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USDA Long-term Projections, February 2007


1 9 2007

.

. 2016.

. -

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1 = 2,47

Agricultural Outlook Forum 2007 Arlington, Virginia March 2, 2007


1 9 2007

.

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