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Demographic Trends and Prospects. Presented by: Eduard Bos Health, Nutrition, and Population The World Bank John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides. Demographic Trends and Prospects. Past trends in population size Projections

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Demographic trends and prospects

Demographic Trends and Prospects

Presented by:

Eduard Bos

Health, Nutrition, and Population

The World Bank

John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides


Demographic Trends and Prospects

  • Past trends in population size

  • Projections

  • 3) Determinants of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration

  • 4) Impact of AIDS epidemic

  • 5) Changing age structures

  • 6) Population policy options


Projections of Population Size

Selected Countries:2000-2050

Increase

Population size (millions)

Country

2000

2050

2000-2050

1,262

1,505

19%

China

India

1,016

1,561

54%

210

320

52%

Indonesia

Brazil

170

245

44%

Pakistan

138

292

112%

130

230

77%

Bangladesh

Nigeria

127

261

106%

Russia

146

114

-22%

Japan

127

105

-21%

Germany

82

67

-17%


How reliable are demographic projections
How Reliable are Demographic Projections

  • Cohort component methodology: trends in vital rates projected separately

  • Baseline data: accurate data determine short-term accuracy

  • Assumptions about the future: past trends; no “unusual” events

  • Longer term: increasing uncertainty

  • Global, regional, country, subnational




Why Population Growth in LDCs Continues

  • Fertility remains above the replacement level

  • Declining mortality

  • Population momentum due to a young age structure



Global Estimates of HIV Prevalence

19902000

Number infected with HIV 9 36 million

Percent of adults infected 0.3 1.2 %



How does hiv aids affect demographic trends
How does HIV/AIDS affect demographic trends

  • Mortality of adults (mostly 20-50) increases death rates

  • Mortality of adults reduces number of women of childbearing age: fewer births

  • Mortality of children increases death rates, reduces future size of adult population

  • Mortality indicators much worse

  • Dependency ratios not greatly affected


Population Council




Causes of

Population Growth

  • Policy Options

1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion

  • Strengthen family planning programs

  • Improve fertility regulation technology


Causes of

Population Growth

  • Policy Options

1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion

  • Strengthen family planning programs

  • Improve fertility regulation technology

  • Emphasize human development

2) High desired

Family size


Socioeconomic Factors Affecting

Demand for Births

  • Level of education

  • Status of women

  • Infant Mortality


Causes of

Population Growth

Policy Options

  • Strengthen family planning programs

  • Improve fertility regulation technology

1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion

2) High desired

family size

  • Emphasize human development

3) Momentum of

population growth

  • Delay childbearing


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