Douglas J. Merrey Director of Research, FANRPAN Africa Water Week, Tunis, March 2008

1. Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure Douglas J. Merrey Director of Research, FANRPAN Africa Water Week, Tunis, March 2008

2. Main Message Large-scale water investments for agriculture and other purposes are important but take years before they provide benefits They will therefore not contribute directly to 2015 MDGs In parallel, policy reforms and modest targeted public investments to encourage a micro-water management industry and market support system will provide large returns, contribute significantly to reducing poverty in a shorter time frame And enhance the future benefits of infrastructure when it comes on stream Omamo (2003), Policy Research on African Agriculture: Trends, Gaps, and Challenges, International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR) Research Report No 21

3. Outline • Briefly, the case for large-scale water infrastructure (Grey and Sadoff) • Micro-water management: Evidence showing benefits (treadle pump example) • Why have micro-water management technologies not scaled up? • Recommendations for the way forward

4. 1. Water Security: The Case for Infrastructure Investments • “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development,” David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, Water Policy 2007 • Excellent article making the case for renewed investments on water infrastructure, especially in Africa • Briefly present their argument, as it makes the case for the Conference Theme: “Accelerating Water Security for Socio-Economic Development of Africa” • I have some reservations, but for this presentation accept the validity of their argument

5. “Water Security” • ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of water for life and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’ level of water-related risks • Necessary condition for economic growth • Wealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in easy conditions • Poor countries faced with “difficult hydrology” • “direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security • Some “hampered by hydrology” • Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology” Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to achieve “minimum platform” of water security • Some slides from Dr. Grey

6. Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff

7. Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity 2108 2,000 1,800 United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr 1,600 1,400 1,200 500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption 900 for reasonable quality of life Elec consumption (kWh/yr)/Capita 1,000 800 581 430 600 204 400 184 126 114 85 55 200 38 29 21 0 Egypt Kenya Ghana Algeria Nigeria Uganda Senegal Ethiopia Tanzania Morocco Cameroon Burkina Faso World Average Energy use per person in Africa

8. Water storage per person (m3) Updated from M Solomon 7,000 6,150 6,000 4,729 5,000 4,000 3,255 2,486 3,000 2,000 1,406 1,287 746 1,000 160 0 Laos Brazil South China Africa Thailand North Ethiopia America Australia

9. Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage Impacts of Floods and Droughts

10. Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982

11. 2. Micro-water management: Evidence showing benefits Sources of evidence • IWMI survey—SADC countries of “Micro-Agricultural Water Management” (Micro-AWM) experiences • Case studies treadle pumps: Malawi, Ghana, Mali, Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania • Work in Asia (especially India) • Several studies on drip irrigation kit experiences in Zimbabwe (counter-factual) • Work by Sokoine Agriculture University, SWMnet, IMAWESA project, etc. Although mostly case studies, evidence for following is compelling

12. “Agricultural Water Management” (AWM) • AWM – technologies, practices to capture, store or drain water, lift and transport it, and apply it to crops in the field • Continuum ‘formal’ irrigation  “micro-AWM” [drip, treadle pumps]  capturing and managing water in “rainfed” fields [rainwater harvesting, conservation agriculture] Use “treadle pump” example here, but argument applies to a large menu of small individualized technologies

13. Treadle Pumps--Types ZAMBIA SWAZI- LAND KENYA S. AFRICA INDIA ZAMBIA

14. Tanks and Drips

15. Micro-AWM--a “best bet” investment • Low-cost small-scale technologies and practices are promising investments: • Relatively low cost per household can benefit more people/$ • Rapid impacts: minimal gestation period • Individualized—lower transaction costs than communal or government irrigation • Lend themselves to being promoted through markets, and to being targeted, e.g., to women, or poor • Not a panacea, but high potential intervention if done right, in the right circumstances

16. Treadle Pumps—Malawi Study • Impact study comparing 50 adopters and non-adopters in 2 districts, Malawi (Mangisoni 2006; 2008 forthcoming) • Adopters have significantly higher productivity & incomes, better food security, ability to improve lives; created employment • Non-adopters (using water cans)—poorer, with higher risk of falling deeper into poverty • Consistent with results in other East and West African countries

17. Ghana study from IWMI similar results • Recent study by FANRPAN in Zambia—significant impacts on poverty (Merrey et al. 2008) • Kickstart in Tanzania and Kenya report significant contributions to economic growth (www.kickstart.org)

18. From Treadle to Motorized Pumps Irrigating eggplant with motorized pump purchased with profits from treadle pump—Zambia (A. Daka)—a route to prosperity

19. If micro-AWM so good, why have they not reached any scale in SSA? • Main problem is restrictive and variable government policies (Merrey & Sally, forthcoming in Water Policy, 2008) • Compounded by small national markets in most SSA countries • Mostly NGO-driven; these tend to be supply-driven limited-time projects, often for relief • Often import technology; no local support system for spare parts, replacement, scaling up • Examples show quality manufacturing is possible in SSA but firms face many impediments

20. Inconsistent, Unsupportive Policies • No SSA country has a long-term supportive policy framework for encouraging a local market-driven industry (manufacture, sales, after-sales service, etc) • Inconsistent policies: duties on imports; subsidized imports and distribution through MPs under projects High costs (2-5 X Indian price), no long-term investment • Small national input & output markets, and poor market access for sale of produce

21. Recommendations: Way Forward National Level • With stakeholders, develop consistent long term supportive policies & designate a lead agency • Support for local R&D, social marketing, low-cost loans • Limited-time “smart” subsidies to kickstart the industry, focused on small farmers • Target women, households who have labor and land but need help with capital • Use input vouchers as a way of subsidizing through the markets • Build into overall long-term agricultural and water resources development policies

22. Recommendations: Way Forward Regional Economic Communities • As part of moving to freer trade, support development of regional markets for small-scale low-cost technologies for economies of scale • Support exchange of experiences among countries

23. Recommendations: Way Forward Development Banks, Donors • Actively support policy reform • Provide financial support to encourage development of African industries in micro-AWM technologies • R&D by local (not foreign) private firms, research institutions • “Smart subsidies” • Low-cost loans for manufacturers, retailers • “Social marketing” to popularize technologies (Kickstart is a good example)

24. Emily’s triumph Oct-Nov 2003: digging storage to catch more 16 Oct 2003: Awareness!catching the first rain 19 Jan 2004: “We have buried the hunger”

25. Final Word Supporting development of an African market-driven micro-AWM industry can contribute directly to reducing poverty and hunger by 2015 while through synergies, enhancing the returns to large-scale water infrastructure investments. Let us not miss the opportunity!

26. Thank you! Visit our website:Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network www.fanrpan.org