J.Cox 1 , R.Stewart 1 , C. Lin 1 , V. Turcotte 2 , B.Kochtubajda 3 , 1 McGill University, Montreal,QC, Canada 2 Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), Quebec Region, St.Laurent, QC, Canada
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J.Cox1, R.Stewart1, C. Lin1, V. Turcotte2, B.Kochtubajda3,
1 McGill University, Montreal,QC, Canada
2 Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), Quebec Region, St.Laurent, QC, Canada
3 Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), Prairie and Northern Region, Edmonton, AB, Canada [email protected]
Initial results on the forecasting of snowfall to snow water equivalent ratio by a new model
The current method of snowfall forecasting in Canada is to first determine the snow water equivalent (SWE) from the MSC NWP atmospheric model (GEM); then, using the 10:1 “rule of thumb” snow to SWE ratio, the snowfall amount is found. Since the observed snow/SWE ratio varies considerably in nature (from 4:1 to 100:1), using an incorrect ratio causes errors in the forecast.
An algorithm to forecast snow/SWE ratio was developed by Ivan Dubé at MSC Quebec in 2003 and automated by Viateur Turcotte at MSC Quebec in 2004. The objective of this study is to perform a verification of the forecast ratios against the observed ratios during snowfall events across Canada in the winter of 2004-2005.