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Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts

A Solution to the Decision-making Process: GIS-based System for Winthrop's First Responders and Decision Makers During a Flood Evacuation. Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts College of Management Honors Thesis Researcher: Michele N. Karas

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Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts

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  1. A Solution to the Decision-making Process:GIS-based System for Winthrop's First Responders and Decision Makers During a Flood Evacuation Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts College of Management Honors Thesis Researcher: Michele N. Karas May 23, 2008 Presentation

  2. Winthrop, Massachusetts • Coastal Community • Peninsula of 1.6 square miles • 7 miles of shoreline

  3. Demographic Characteristics: • Total Population • 18,303 • + 20,000 • Elderly > 65 • 3,024; 16.5% • + 4,177; 22.8% (US Census Bureau 2000)

  4. Emergency Management • Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency • State EOC; National Guard; MDC • Officials 1990s changed to ‘Emergency Management’ • National level • MEMA • FEMA

  5. Planning on a Regional Level • Tragedies of 9/11 • November 2002, Homeland Security Act of 2002 • January 2006, US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff – importance of regional cooperation • UASI (Urban Area Security Initiatives) • Metro-Boston Homeland Security and City of Boston’s Mayor Coalition

  6. Winthrop’sEmergency Management Agency

  7. Decision Makers • Emergency Management Director • Incident Commander: Fire Chief ‘advises & informs TM of incident’ • Town Manager – declares ‘state of emergency’ & PIO

  8. First Responders • Police • Fire • DPW • EMT • BOH • IT

  9. Steps to Research • Literature Review • Hands-on Research & Analysis/Tools: • Course work within the Science & Math College, since Jan 08’: • EEOS265 – Computer Applications Geography • EEOS261 –Statistics for Earth & Geographic Sciences • EEOS381 – Applications of GIS

  10. Methodology • GIS Data Model Overview Reality Human-oriented Conceptual Model Increasing Abstraction Logical Model Computer-oriented Physical Model

  11. Methodology: Reality • Winthrop • Coastal Storms • Flooding • Elderly residents • Roadways • Shelters – location and accessibility • Evacuation routes - existing • Elevation • Storm Surge

  12. Spatial Analysis: • Answering “What if” scenarios • Mapping where things are • Mapping density • Finding what’s near by • Patterns • Normative Process: • Develop or prescribe new or better designs (e.g. evacuation route)

  13. My Data Model: Objective • Choose the best route of egress for evacuation route, • Identify the area of residency of elderly population, • Within Winthrop: Identify shelter in place and critical evacuation areas, • Outside Winthrop: Identify shelters

  14. Data Collection • Raster - • Primary: Ortho/digital aerial photos • Secondary: DEM Vector – points/lines/polygons • Secondary: shape files, data layers, tables, database • Commonwealth of MA - MassGIS – Office of Geographic and Environmental Information (Exec. Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs www.mass/gov/mgis

  15. Software used: Geodatabase & Map project • ESRI: ArcGIS Desktop Version 9 • ArcMap v9.2 • ArcCatalog v9.2 • ArcToolboxv9.2

  16. Winthrop’s Geodatabase: Geodatabase Feature Classes: • Town polygon • Town survey (lines) • Storm Surge • Roads (EOT) shapefile • Census 2000 Block Group data • Schools shapefile (points) • Town Halls shapefile • Police Departments shapefile • Fire Departments shapefile • Hospital & Long Care Facilities shapefile

  17. Other data/Symbology: • Analysis Data Used: • DEM • Ortho/aerial

  18. Steps to Identify Winthrop Evacuation Route • Boston’s evacuation route • Winthrop’s major roadways • Winthrop’s points of exit

  19. Defining Winthrop’s evacuation route • Fire Chief knowledge & history • Past storms

  20. Defining Winthrop’s Elderly Population • Census 2000 Blocks data • Group > 65 yrs. • Sub-group > 80 yrs.

  21. One Blue, one Green & one Yellow Area: in an area of categorized as > 6 ft above sea level. Persons in this area can be Sheltered in Place. One Red & one Green Area: Review closer

  22. Shelter in place

  23. Critical Evacuation Area

  24. Analysis: Schools for Shelters within Winthrop • High School • Middle School • Fort Banks Elementary • Cummings Elementary • Criteria • Location • Accessibility

  25. Discarded School Shelter Sites • High School • Middle School • Location • Neither ADA Compliant

  26. Shelters in Winthrop • Cummings School • Fort Banks DPW Bldg/Yard EOC

  27. Transport to Shelters Outside of Winthrop • High elevations • Close to Winthrop • Facilities: • Care for elderly • Food • Medicine • Amenities

  28. Don Orione Home 111 Orient Ave., East Boston Soldiers Home 91 Crest Ave, Chelsea Quigley Memorial Hospital 91 Crest Ave, Chelsea

  29. Q & A Thank you.

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