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РАДИОГЕЛИОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ДВУХЧАСТОТНЫЙ МЕТОД ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СОЛНЕЧНЫХ ВСПЫШЕК PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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РАДИОГЕЛИОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ДВУХЧАСТОТНЫЙ МЕТОД ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СОЛНЕЧНЫХ ВСПЫШЕК ПО МИКРОВОЛНОВОМУ ИЗЛУЧЕНИЮ Бакунина И. А., Смольков Г. Я., Снегирев С. Д. ФГНУ Научно-исследовательский радиофизический институт, Нижний Новгород Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН. NORH, 1.76 см.

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РАДИОГЕЛИОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ДВУХЧАСТОТНЫЙ МЕТОД ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СОЛНЕЧНЫХ ВСПЫШЕК

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7083529

. ., . .,

. .

- ,

-

NORH, 1.76

CC, 5.2


7083529

,

, NoRH

,256 , EW & NS ( 622.3)

56755787 (=5.2)

2D -: 21,

1D: 15

: 1500 K

2D -: 2, 40 , ,

1D - : 14/

- , 84 ,

490 W 220 N S

: 17 & 34

:400 K

: 10 &5

: 1 s (0.1 s)


7083529

: - ( NoRH)


7083529

: ( ) - ,

I V,


7083529

- 1,

(.. , 1968):

-

-

1.76

5.2

:

,

, .


7083529

NoRH, 1.76 cm

AR 10743

AR10898

M2.5(08:13)


7083529

- 2 -

()

1.Cohen . . II Astrophys. J. 1961. V. 133. . 978.

2.r. II Publ. Astron. Soc. Japan. 1961. V. 13. P. 312.

3. . ., . . II . . 1963. . 40. . 633.

4. . ., . . // . . 1973. . 50. . 1220.

5.Gelfreikh G. ., Peterova N. G., Ryabov . I. // Solar Phys. 1987. V. 108. P. 89.

6. .. , .. // , 1991, .68, .394-403.

S

N

S

N

S

N


7083529

-

-

- S- :

- - :

- - :

-

!


7083529

P-

S -

5.2

E -

AR_09393

1.76

x -


7083529

:

  • , - 5.2 ( .., .., A, 1990-1996 ..)

  • 2. ( .., .., .., ..// ,1996,

  • 21 .131-134, 2114449 27 1998 .

  • :

  • - , , ; ( .., .., .., . , 2007)

  • 4. ( .., . .. . .-. , 2007)


7083529

5,2 (S<170 ...), - , .


7083529

- ,

, , 1-2 , 4-5 .

, ,

( 105 )


7083529

,

:

II III:

(. 0,68)

III II:

-

- :

. 0,84;

:

. 0,57


7083529

(, 5.2 )

, l,

- :

I: ;

II: E- S- , ;

III: S- .

P- - .

-

=


7083529

I, ,

329

II, ,

658

III,

717


7083529

(101 : 2001-2006 .., 32 )


7083529

:

1)

.

.

2) F

3) F/S ( S )

, -

2

F/S 5.2

20 ..., 1.

0.

( 24 ),

- 1.

3 ( ),

, 24

1.0.

,

.

27


7083529

5.2

1.76


7083529

M1.0 :

S = (R-E)/(T-E), R , T , E . , (+ , ):

  • i- ; - i- .

  • S=0 R=E, S=1 R=T


7083529

(281 )


7083529

(10 : 2001-2006 .., 15 )


7083529

AR 10930 (11_12_2006 )

SSRT, 5.2 c

MDI/SOHO

AR 10930

MDI/SOHO


7083529

05_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRh, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

C2.4(05:36)C2.2(01:59)C3.8(05:01)C4.2(06:05)C1.5(09:07)C1.2(17:18)C5.8(19:49)C3.7(20:21)C5.4(21:44)C3.6(22:46)C1.5(23:52)M1.8(07:45)X9.0(10:18)

-

I - -6-

-


7083529

06_12_2006 AR 10930

SSRT, 5.2 c

SSRT, 5.2 c

MDI/SOHO


7083529

06_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

C2.4(05:36)C1.0(07:06)C1.5(07:25)C1.7(07:34)C4.8(12:53)C2.5(14:21)C1.7(15:54)C1.4(16:06)C4.4(16:15)C7.4(21:44)C3.1(22:26)C1.7(23:09)M1.1(01:30)M6.0(08:02)M3.5(20:14)X6.5(18:29)

SSRT, 5.2 c

-

-

Halo, 06.12.2006 (10:35 UT),

9.0/2N (10:18 UT)

S06E58(-823",-103") Dko S=390...

II -5-


7083529

07_12_2006

AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

C1.9(00:31)C2.1(03:32)C6.1(04:27)C1.1(10:49)C1.2(14:49)M2.1(18:20)

S05E46(-700",-85") Dkc S= 490...


7083529

07_12_2006

AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

C1.9(00:31)C2.1(03:32)C6.1(04:27)C1.1(10:49)C1.2(14:49)M2.1(18:20)

-

-

II - 4-


7083529

08_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

-

-

III -3-

S06E31(-501",-100") Dki S=430...


7083529

09_12_2006 AR 10930

SSRT, 5.2 c

NoRH, 1.76

-

-

S05E18(-301",-81") Cko S=0420

III - 2-


7083529

10_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

-

-

S04E05(-85",-62") Cko S= 380...

III - 1-


7083529

11_12_2006 AR 10930

SSRT, 5.2 c

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2

C1.4(00:56)C2.6(05:08)C5.7(07:54)

-

-

S05W08(135",-76") Cki S= 0440

III - 0-


7083529

12_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

MDI/SOHO

SSRT, 5.2 c

-

-

S05W21(349",-75") Dki 0480

III, +1-


7083529

13_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

-

-

C2.2(14:14)C1.7(18:18)X3.4(02:14)

S06W35(558",-91") Dki, S=680...


7083529

14_12_2006 AR 10930

NoRH, 1.76

SSRT, 5.2 c

C1.0(11:56)C1.2(16:36)X1.5(21:07)

-

S05W47(712",-75") Dki S= 670

III, +3-


7083529

15_12_2006 AR 10930

-

-

IV, +4-

S05W61(851",-76") Dkc S=620


7083529

16_12_2006 AR 10930

-

-

II, +5-

S06W73(928",-96") Dki S_spots=0550/0620 N_spots=09/13


7083529

: F/S

, , . , .

, .


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( ...) ( ...) 1.76 . 09415 (790 ...; 43.6 ...); 10808 (840 ...; 40.3 ...); 10720 (1540 ...; 53.9 ...). ~ 1%

( ...)

( ...) 5.2 . ~3 %

20 5.2

1.76 ( ...).

-

09415 (43.6; 42.6, ...); 10808 (40.3; 51.1, ...);

10720(53.9; 94.6, ...)

(1.76 ) 80% F>=10 ... 10 % : F(1.76)/F(5.2) > 1


7083529

1.0

:

1)

.

2)

I V, ,

, , - .

3) Tb,

F, F/S

( S ). ,

- 2.

( ) F/S

5.2 20 ..., 1.76 - 10 ...,

1.

0.

( 24 ), -

1.

3 ( ), ,

24 1.0.

, .


7083529

!


7083529

( 168 )

70 >1.0 50 71% , 20 . . .

104 , , 29 (28%) 20 .. .

, . :

, , , , , .


7083529

,

(.. , 1968):

-

-

:

,

, .


7083529

20

20

:

,

,

N I


7083529

-:

1) , ~ 4;

2) 1,1;

3) , , ;

4) .

,

,

:

1. 3.2

F(3.2)> 10 ...

2. 3.2 8 F(3.2)/F(8.0) >0.8


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