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Securing Passenger Aircraft From Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) Vicki Bier, Uche Okpara and Natawan Teerapirak

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Securing Passenger Aircraft From Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) Vicki Bier, Uche Okpara and Natawan Teerapirak. What Are MANPADS?.

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Securing Passenger Aircraft From Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS)Vicki Bier, Uche Okpara and Natawan Teerapirak

what are manpads
What Are MANPADS?

MANPADS are man-portable, shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles. They are usually equipped with a seeker, typically infra-red (IR) or ultra-violet (UV) or a combination of these.

Examples:

  • SA-7 / Grail / Strella-2
  • SA-14/ Gremlin / Strella-3
  • SA-16 / Grimlet / Igla-1
  • SA-18 / Grouse / Igla

(Naming convention: US name / NATO name / Russian name)

sa 7 grail strella 2 us nato russian
SA-7 / Grail / Strella-2(US / NATO / Russian)
  • Maximum effective range: 5,500 m
  • Maximum effective altitude: 4,500 m
  • Maximum speed: 580 m/s
  • Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device
  • Deployed worldwide
sa 14 gremlin strella 3 us nato russian
SA-14/ Gremlin / Strella-3(US / NATO / Russian)
  • Maximum effective range: 6,000 m
  • Maximum effective altitude: 6,000 m
  • Maximum speed: 600 m/s
  • Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device
  • Deployed worldwide
sa 16 grimlet igla 1 us nato russian
SA-16 / Grimlet / Igla-1(US / NATO / Russian)
  • Maximum effective range: 5,000 m
  • Maximum altitude: 3,500m
  • Maximum speed: 2 Mach (approximately 660 m/s)
  • Guidance: passive 2-color IR and UV homing
  • Improvement on SA-7
  • Deployed by CIS countries
sa 18 grouse igla us nato russian
SA-18 / Grouse / Igla(US / NATO / Russian)
  • Maximum effective range: 5,200 m
  • Maximum effective altitude: 3,500 m
  • Maximum speed: 2 Mach (approximately 660 m/s)
  • Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device
  • Deployed worldwide
why focus on manpads
Why Focus On MANPADS?

There are an estimated 500,000 MANPADS in the world today, many thousands of which are thought to be on the black market and therefore accessible to terrorists and other non-state actors.

MANPADS are attractive to terrorists and insurgents because they are:

  • Lethal
  • Highly portable and concealable
  • Inexpensive
  • Relatively easy to use

Within the past two years, MANPADS have been deployed against:

  • An Israeli civil airliner over Kenya
  • A DHL cargo craft over Iraq
  • A US Army Chinook helicopter and
  • An Air Force C-7 transport plane.
key question

I

w

w

c

M

c

Lateral view

Aerial view

Key Question

Given:

A region I with center c

An aircraft A with a flight trajectory from c to w

A MANPAD system M positioned somewhere in region I

What is the probability that a missile fired from M would hit A?

manpad parameters
MANPAD Parameters

HM : maximum height of missile fired from MANPAD system

RM : maximum range of missile fired from MANPAD system

PM : maximum kill probability of a MANPAD system when a missile is

fired at a target A

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Attacker Location Strategies

  • Uniform
  • Near Center
  • Normal Across Flight Path

1

2

3

sensitivity analysis base case
Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case
  • RM = 5.5 km
  • HM = 4.5 km
  • CA = 10 km
  • γA = 2
  • kA = 13 km
  • rI = 15.6 km
  • rS = 0.8 km
  • γP = 45
  • kP = 6.4 km
sensitivity analysis algorithm
Sensitivity Analysis - Algorithm
  • Choose a parameter to be varied, and determine the range within which it will be varied
  • Choose a value for Φa (angular direction of the aircraft trajectory, c-w); e.g. Φa= π
  • Set all other parameters to their base-case values
  • Choose a probability density function fM(m), for the attacker location
  • Divide the range of the parameter to be varied into R points
  • For each of the R points:
    • Generate N random attacker locations in the region of interest according to the chosen probability density function fM(m)
    • For each of the N points:
      • Select Q uniformly spaced points along the path c-w
      • Generate a vector of distances D = (D1, … , DQ) from m to c-w
      • Generate a vector of conditional probabilities P = (P1, … , PQ)
      • Compute
    • Estimate the expected value by averaging values obtained for
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A detailed presentation is available to first responders, government agencies, other centers, and scientific organizations upon request.
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